022
FXXX12 KWNP 291231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2025 Jul 29 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4153 (S29W28, Eso/beta)
remained the largest group on the visible disk and produced a C1.5 flare
at 28/0321 UTC. Region 4161 (S12E60, Dao/beta) continued to rotate into
view on the eastern limb, but was relatively quiet this period. Regions
4162 (N17W20, Axx/alpha) and 4163 (N24W16, Bxo/beta) were numbered this
period, but were otherwise unremarkable. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through 31 July.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak of
1,870 pfu at 28/1520 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady
at background levels throughout the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux may reach high levels on 29 Jul,
with a return to moderate levels likely on 30-31 July. The greater than
10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels though 31
July.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind parameters reflected waning transient influences into a
background-like solar wind environment. Total field ranged 4-7 nT and
the Bz component was +/- 5 nT. Solar wind speeds averaged near 420 km/s
for a majority of the period before decreasing to near 375 km/s. Phi was
predominantly in a negative solar sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are likely to maintain near background levels over
29 July. By mid 30 July, additional enhancements are possible as a
northern hemispheric, negative polarity CH HSS is expected to become
geoeffective. Enhanced solar wind parameters are expected to continue
through 31 Jul as CH HSS effects persist.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at mostly quiet to
isolated unsettled levels over 29 July. Unsettled to active conditions
are expected for 30-31 July due to negative polarity CH HSS effects.