Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
510 FXXX12 KWNP 090031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Sep 09 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels with isolated C-class flare activity. The largest flare of the period was a C3.4 at 08/2339 UTC from otherwise stable Region 4528 (S11E38, Hsx/alpha). Region 4530 (N19E06, Dao/beta) developed asymmetric penumbra on both its leading and trailing poles while undergoing consolidation in its intermediate area. New flux emergence in the intermediate area was observed late in the period. Region 4521 (N09W40, Hsx/alpha) began to show signs of possible flux emergence and pore development as it produced a C2.4 flare at 08/1224 UTC, a C2.8 flare at 08/1743 UTC, and a C2.6 flare at 08/2224 UTC. The first of these two events likely resulted in the rather faint CME first seen to the west in LASCO C2 imagery at approximately 08/1334 UTC with preliminary modelling showing a miss NW off the Sun-Earth line. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to be at low levels due to isolated to occasional C-class flare activity, with a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through 11 Sep. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 2,780 pfu observed at 08/1710 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux may briefly return to normal to moderate levels on 09 Sep during CME arrivals. Moderate to high levels are then expected to persist through 11 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at or near background levels through 11 Sep. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream regime. Total field ranged 3-11 nT while the Bz component underwent several southward deflections reaching -6 nT. Solar wind speeds peaked near 627 km/s at approximately 08/0552 UTC. Phi was predominantly positive while undertaking brief excursions into a negative solar sector. .Forecast... Enhanced solar wind conditions due to positive polarity CH HSS influences are expected to continue through 10 Sep. Further enhancements are likely on 09 Sep with the anticipated arrival of CMEs that left the Sun on 05 and 06 Sep. On 11 Sep, a separate additional positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream is likely to arrive, bringing a mildly disturbed solar wind environment. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) storm levels under positive polarity CH HSS effects during the 0600-09000 UTC and 1500-1800 UTC synoptic periods. .Forecast... G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on 09 Sep due to ongoing positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream effects combined with the anticipated arrival of CMEs that left the Sun over the course of 05-06 Sep. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected to prevail on 10 Sep and continue into 11 Sep as another positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective.