Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
887 FXXX12 KWNP 100031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Oct 10 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels following an M2.0 flare (R1-Minor) at 09/1231 UTC from a region just around the NW limb. Only low-level C-class activity was observed from the remaining spotted regions on the visible disk. Two new regions of flux were observed near the Suns E limb and will be assigned an active region number if they persist. New Regions 4248 (N08E64, Cao/beta) and 4249 (S18E64, Bxo/beta) were numbered as they emerged late in the period, but were otherwise unremarkable. Additional activity included a CME off the NE beginning near 09/0630 UTC. This event is likely associated with the eruption of a filament channel near N28E40. Analysis and modelling suggested the periphery of the ejecta would pass near Earth on 13 Oct. No other potentially Earth-directed CMEs were identified in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... A chance for R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts exists over 10-12 Oct due to flare potential from several active regions returning from the Suns farside. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux continued to reach high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below the S1 (Minor) threshold over the past 24 hrs. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate levels over 10-12 Oct. The 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels over the next three days. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were slight enhanced. A minor discontinuity was observed around 09/0740 UTC, marked by a total magnetic field strength (Bt) from 9 nT to 13 nT and solar wind speed increase from ~350 km/s to ~390 km/s. No significant periods of southward Bz were observed. A gradual return to ambient conditions was observed over the remainder of the day. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are likely to continued at nominal levels over 10 Oct. A recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS is likely to become geoeffective from late on 11 Oct through 12 Oct. This is expected to elevate Bt and solar wind speeds through the end of the forecast period (12 Oct). Geospace .24 hr Summary... Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. .Forecast... Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels over 10 Oct. Active conditions are expected by late on 11 Oct, with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels likely on 12 Oct, as a negative polarity CH HSS becomes geoeffective.