Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
647 FXXX12 KWNP 121231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Jul 12 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate (R1-Minor) levels following an M1.4 flare at 12/0402 UTC and an M2.3 flare at 12/0834 UTC, both originating from Region 4140 (S14E67, Dao/beta). This region was also responsible for the majority of the C-class activity this period, despite remaining mostly unchanged. Regions 4136 (N19E34, Dai/beta-gamma-delta), 4138 (N29W20, Dai/beta), and 4139 (N22E09, Cao/beta) all exhibited growth during the period, with Regions 4138 and 4139 contributing a couple of C-class flares. From around 12/0845-1108 UTC, an approximately 11 long filament was observed departing the disk near the SW limb. Analysis is underway to determine if there is an Earth-directed component. Otherwise, no Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) activity over 12-14 Jul. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over 12-14 Jul. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 14 Jul. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters became elevated after ~11/0030 UTC in response to the onset of a CIR preceding positive polarity CH HSS influence. Total field strength reached 14 nT, the Bz component saw a maximum southward deflection to -9 nT, and solar wind speeds averaged near 460 km/s with occasional peaks over 500 km/s. Phi angle was positive throughout the period. .Forecast... Elevated solar wind parameters are expected to persist over 12-14 Jul due to positive polarity CH HSS influence. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached active levels due to positive polarity CH HSS influence. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active levels, with isolated periods of G1 (Minor) storming possible on 12 Jul. Active to G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely again on 13 Jul, with quiet to unsettled levels likely to return on 14 Jul, due to persistent positive polarity CH HSS influence.