Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
395 FXXX12 KWNP 070031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Sep 07 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity decayed down to low levels. The largest flare of the period was a C5.0/1n from Region 4524 (N12E26, Cao/beta-gamma) observed at 06/1042 UTC. This region continued to exhibit weak decay. New Region 4528 (S11E64, Hsx/alpha) produced a C1.1 flare at 06/1334 UTC. The remaining existing regions on the disk were quiet and stable. A halo CME associated with the C5.0 first became visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 06/1112 UTC and in STEREO coronagraph imagery at 06/1053 UTC. Modeling suggests a potential arrival at Earth late on 08 Sep-early on 09 Sep. Several additional CMEs were observed over the past 24-36 hours. These CMEs were described at length in the previous discussion. Modeling suggests a possible combined arrival for these eruptions on early 08 Sep. .Forecast... Solar activity will likely be at low levels due to occasional C-class flare activity, with a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through 09 Sep. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels at 06/1805 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV (S1-Minor) proton flux began rising at 05/1530 UTC and exceeded the 10 pfu event level at 05/1615 UTC with a peak flux of 17.8 pfu observed at 05/1645 UTC, and ended the event at 05/2135 UTC. The greater than 100 MeV proton flux began rising at 05/1530 UTC and also exceeded the 1 pfu event threshold at 05/1545 UTC, reaching a max of 1.16 pfu at 05/1550 UTC. Levels decayed below the 1 pfu levels at 05/1615 UTC and ended the period near background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 07-08 Sep and increase to high levels on 09 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue decreasing towards background levels through early 08 Sep. Levels could increase back up to equal or exceed threshold levels by midday on 08 Sep if the anticipated CMEs impact Earth. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were largely at nominal levels, with total field (Bt) averaged near 6 nT, the Bz component fluctuated between +/-5 nT, and solar wind speeds averaged around 350 km/s. Phi was predominantly negative with isolated oscillations into a positive orientation. The exception was the IMF beginning at roughly 06/2040 UTC, when a coherent magnetic structure began rotating through the near-Earth environment, with Bt reaching a max of 10 nT by the end of the reporting period. .Forecast... Solar wind enhancements, due to a solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC) combined with influence from a filament CME that left the Sun on 02 Sep, are anticipated to continue through 07 Sep. Further enhancements are likely 08 Sep through 09 Sep with the anticipated arrival of the multitude of CMEs from the past couple of days combined with the onset of the CH HSS. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet. .Forecast... Unsettled to periodic active levels are possible on 07 Sep due to aforementioned SSBC effects. Unsettled to active levels are then expected on 08 Sep, with isolated G1 (Minor) periods likely if the CMEs mentioned above impact Earth as forecast. Confidence is low on the timing and magnitude of the CME arrivals.