Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
599 FXXX12 KWNP 231231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Apr 23 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels, with the largest flare of the reporting period being an M4.4 at 23/0848 UTC from Region 4419 (N15W57, Eao/beta). Classification of this region is difficult due to foreshortening. Region 4420 (N16E31, Dai/beta-gamma-delta) exhibited significant growth in area and magnetic complexity as it developed a delta configuration. The rise in activity and X-Ray background level is mostly attributed to these two regions mentioned above. The remaining regions were in decay. Notable activity included an M1.6 flare at 23/0435 UTC from Region 4419. Shortly after, Region 4420 contributed an M1.2 flare at 23/0459 UTC. Type II (1033 km/s) and Type IV radio emissions were observed with this activity. Both of these flares produced CMEs off the NW and NE, respectively. Both of which were first visible in LASCO C2 imagery near 23/0500 UTC. Modeling efforts are underway at the time of this summary. There was a Type II radio emission (722 km/s) associated with the M4.4 flare mentioned above, however, we await updated imagery to determine any potential CME impact. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected (95%) to be at low levels, with M-class activity likely (55%) on 23-25 Apr, primarily due to the flare potential from Regions 4419 and 4420, as well activity from regions beyond the East limb. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels with a maximum reading of 4,920 pfu at 22/1605 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 23-25 Apr. There is a slight chance (10%) for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 threshold (10 MeV at or above 10 pfu) on 23-25 Apr. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected waning CH HSS influences. Total magnetic field (Bt) averaged ~5 nT, with the north-south component (Bz) variable between +/- 5 nT. The wind speed had a very gradual downward trend, beginning the reporting period with an average of 525 km/s and ending with an average range of ~450 km/s. While phi was predominantly negative (towards the Sun), it frequently fluctuated between the positive and negative sectors. .Forecast... Mildly enhanced solar wind conditions are anticipated 23-25 Apr as the negative polarity CH HSS continues to move from its geoeffective position, transitioning to elevated conditions on 24 Apr due to the anticipated arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated unsettled period. .Forecast... Mostly quiet to unsettled levels are expected 23-25 Apr, with isolated active conditions possible, due to diminishing negative polarity HSS effects and the anticipated arrival of a positive polarity HSS around 24 Apr.