Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
351 FXXX12 KWNP 070031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 May 07 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity remained low. Region 4079 (N08W26, Ekc/beta-gamma) produced the strongest flare of the period, an impulsive C4.5 06/1707 UTC. A simultaneous filament eruption, centered near S20E05, produced a narrow CME signature that was first observed in SOHO LASCO/C2 imagery beginning at 06/1655 UTC. An additional, slower filament eruption, centered near N35W15, was also observed. Analysis and modeling of the events is ongoing. No significant growth or decay was observed in the spotted regions on the visible disk. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity over 07-09 May. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 11,900 pfu observed at 06/1600 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below S1 (Minor) levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels over 07-09 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels over 07-09 May. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The solar wind environment remained enhanced this period due to continued negative polarity CH HSS influences. Total magnetic field strength was between 4-6 nT. The Bz component briefly reached as far south as -6 nT. Solar wind speeds declined from ~700 km/s to ~600 km/s by the end of the reporting period. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the negative sector. .Forecast... Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 07 May due to continued negative polarity CH HSS influences. A gradual return to background conditions is likely over 08 May as CH HSS influence wanes. An additional enhancement is likely on 09 May due to the anticipated onset of another negative polarity CH HSS. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached active levels in response to continued negative polarity CH HSS influences. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active levels on 07 May due to continued negative polarity CH HSS influence. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected to prevail on 08 May as CH HSS influence wanes. G1 (Minor) conditions are likely on 09 May due to the onset of influence from another negative polarity CH HSS.