Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
474 FXXX12 KWNP 130031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Jul 13 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels, with M-class (R1-Minor) flare activity observed. Region 4140 (S15E61, Dao/beta) produced three R1 (Minor) events during the period, the largest being an M2.3 flare at 12/0834 UTC. Regions 4138 (N28W26, Dai/beta), 4139 (N22E10, Dai/beta), and 4140 all exhibited growth, while the remaining regions were mostly stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to reach moderate levels, with M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity anticipated over 13-15 Jul. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over 13-15 Jul. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 15 Jul. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters remained elevated under continued positive polarity CH HSS influence. Total magnetic field strength reached 14 nT, and the Bz component briefly reached as far south as -10 nT. Solar wind speeds steadily increased to a peak near 600 km/s near the end of the UT day. The phi angle remained positive throughout the period. .Forecast... Elevated solar wind parameters are expected to persist over 13-15 Jul due to continued positive polarity CH HSS influence. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached active levels due to positive polarity CH HSS influence. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active levels on 13 Jul, with a chance for G1 (Minor) storming, followed by quiet to unsettled levels on 14-15 Jul, all due to continued influence from a positive polarity CH HSS.