904
FXUS63 KDDC 142231
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
531 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Southwest Kansas will remain dry for the foreseeable future.

- Seasonably hot temperatures in the 90s each afternoon, with a
  very slow warming trend through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Southeast Kansas today is situated between a surface high in
the Mid Mississippi Valley and a trough of low pressure at the
surface over eastern Colorado. Western Kansas also was located
on the southern fringe of an unseasonably warm upper level ridge
which extended from the Northern Plains into the Western Great
Lakes Region. Large scale subsidence was occurring beneath this
upper highs and will inhibit any organized convection...however
there does appear to be a slight chance for a few isolated rain
showers through evening across south central and maybe even
portions of southwest Kansas as a weak upper level disturbance
moves east to west across Kansas. While the probability of
precipitation remains low (less than 10%), several models in the
near term have had run to run consistences indicating at this
may occur. Despite this potential the majority of south central
and southwest Kansas will no see any precipitation.

Although the probability of precipitation will be very low
through early this evening (<10%), our confidence in the
afternoon temperatures on Wednesday remains highs (>80%).
Ensembles continue to show run to run consistency with 850mb
temperatures late Wednesday ranging from 20 to 25C . This is
within a degree or two of what is currently expected late today
(7pm CDT Tuesday) As a result of this little change in 850mb
temperatures between late Tuesday and late Wednesday the highs
on Wednesday will be almost a carbon copy of Tuesday afternoon
temperatures.

High temperatures will warm a few degrees late week as an upper
level trough begins to rotate around the upper high that will
be located across the Northern Plains. As this upper trough move
from the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Plains...a trough
of low pressure at the surface will start to deepen along the
lee of the Rockies along with a slow warming trend in
temperatures occurring across the west Central High Plains.
While this will not be a significant warm up an, temperatures
across southwest Kansas are expected to climb into the low to
mid 90s by late week for many locations on Friday.

Ensembles then weaken the upper level ridge as it retrogrades
towards the western United States over the weekend and early
next week. This shift will bring a northwest flow across the
Rockies and allow a surface cold front to move into southwest
Kansas by Monday. South of this cold front the potential for
highs around 100 degrees will be possible given the unseasonably
warm 850mb temperatures forecast ahead of this boundary (850mb
temperatures in the upper 20s to near 30C). In contrast north of
this boundary the highs may struggle to climb only into the mid
90s. At this time based on the majority of the ensemble clusters
late this weekend this cold front will be located north of the
I-70 area on Sunday so the unseasonably warm air ahead of the
cold front will cover all of southwest Kansas. On Monday this
cold front will be located in southwest Kansas with the warmest
air currently is forecast to be locates south and west of the
Dodge City area. Currently there is a 30-70% chance for highs
to be 100 degrees or a little warmer on Sunday while on Monday
the highest chances for 100 degree highs (40-70%) will be
located near and southwest of a Garden City to Dodge City to
Pratt line.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 531 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Excellent flying weather will continue through this TAF period,
with VFR/SKC and light southeast winds prevailing. Another crop
of broken cumulus are expected after 18z Wed, and southeast
winds will gust 20-25 kts after 18z Wed.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Turner/KBJ