397
FXUS63 KDDC 111017
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
517 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous fire weather conditions will be possible Thursday
through Saturday. Days of greatest concern will be Thursday and
Saturday.

- Ensemble models show 20-60% chance for wind gusts in excess of
50 mph on Friday afternoon behind a cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

A weak cold front will move through the area this morning shifting
winds to the north and bring in slightly cooler air today.  Mostly
clear skies and dry conditions are expected throughout the day with
highs ranging from the mid 60s in our northern zones to low 70s
along the KS/OK border. Winds become light and variable tonight with
northeast winds expected tomorrow. High level cloudiness will
increase in coverage overnight and continue into tomorrow. Lows
tonight are progged to dip into the 30s with highs tomorrow in the
low 70s.

The next storm system will move through the western United States
Thursday, into the Rockies Thursday night, and through the Plains
Friday. Skies will be mostly clear through Thursday night with dry
conditions. Winds will shift to the southwest as this system
approaches and increase in speed Thursday. RHs Thursday look to dip
into the teens and with the combination of strong winds fire weather
risk will become elevated to significant. If the ensemble models
remain consistent a Red Flag Warning will need to be issued for that
day. The system then moves through the area Friday with a cold front
passage in the afternoon. This will shift winds to the north with
continued strong winds. The current NBM run shows probabilities of
exceeding 50 mph Friday afternoon ranging from 10 percent in our
eastern zones to around 60 percent along the KS/CO border. It also
shows around a 30 percent chance of exceeding 58 mph along the KS/CO
border with less than 20 elsewhere. In addition to the winds, wrap
around clouds and showers will be possible Friday afternoon then
confined to northern Kansas Friday night. However, little
accumulation is expected at this time. Breezy northerly winds
continue Saturday with another chance of increased fire danger. Wind
speeds then decrease for the remainder of the forecast. We also head
back into a dry pattern Saturday on as an upper level ridge builds
over the Plains with high pressure being the dominate feature at the
surface. As for temperatures, highs look to reaching into the mid to
upper 70s Thursday with the NBM showing a 20 to 60 percent chance of
exceeding 80 degrees in some places. We then cool down Friday due to
the next system with highs ranging from around 60 degrees along the
KS/CO border with upper 60s to around 70 degrees across central
Kansas. Cooler weather continues Saturday with highs in the 50s with
a gradual warm up for the rest of the forecast with highs in the 60s
Sunday and 70s Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 516 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

VFR conditions will prevail today with increasing high level
cloudiness this evening. A cold front is currently moving
through the area and will shift winds to the north. Gust around
20 knots will be possible late morning into the afternoon hours.


&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42