325
FXUS63 KDDC 141815
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
115 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm today.

- Dry conditions persist through early Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

WV imagery indicates a westerly flow aloft prevailing across the
Western High Plains downstream of a large scale upper level trough
of low pressure edging eastward through the Great Basin. Near the
surface, a lee side trough of low pressure remains nearly stationary
from eastern Colorado southeast into extreme southwest Kansas.

The ongoing dry pattern will persist through early this weekend
as the SREF indicates a broad scale upper level trough lifting
northeast across the Colorado Rockies late tonight, and farther
northeast up into the Dakotas Thursday. In response, the
aforementioned lee side trough axis will begin to shift eastward
through southwest Kansas early this morning, and into central
Kansas this afternoon allowing much drier air to overspread the
area within a westerly downslope flow. The dry airmass will be
reinforced by a west-northwest downslope flow developing early
Thursday morning behind a projected weak cold front pushing
through western Kansas, essentially capping any precip chances
across the region through early Saturday.

Unseasonably warm temperatures are likely again today as the
previously mentioned westerly downslope flow sets up across
southwest/central Kansas this afternoon, pushing H85 temperatures
up a little above 25C across the entire area. Under mostly sunny
skies, look for afternoon highs well up into the 90s(F) for much
of the area as suggested by the HREF showing a 80-90% probability
of temperatures exceeding 90F in central/south central Kansas to
a 90% probability of temperatures nudging above 85F along the
Colorado line in extreme southwest Kansas. A weak cold front
pushing through western Kansas early Thursday morning will bring
an end to the warming trend with cooler air lowering H85
temperatures back down below 20C in central Kansas to a little
above 20C in southwest Kansas. Expect widespread afternoon highs
in the 80s(F) Thursday with similar temperatures Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 113 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

A front will pass across the TAF sites between 04 and 06z, with
southwest winds shifting to the northwest at 20-25 kts. Expect
25-30 kt northwest winds at KHYS for 1 to 2 hours. Winds will
gradually subside toward 10-12z. VFR conditions are expected to
persist.


&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...Finch