252
FXUS63 KDDC 281707
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1207 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot today and Sunday ahead of the next cold front with
  widespread mid to upper 90s for highs and heat indices 100-102
  across central and south central Kansas.

- Cold front pushing south late Sunday will become the focus for
  organized thunderstorm activity.

- Weak wind shear will limit severe weather risk, but damaging
  straight line winds and locally very heavy rainfall is always
  a risk with summertime thunderstorms (Sunday evening and
  night).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 353 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

The early morning weather across southwestern Kansas was tranquil as
late night thunderstorms remained just north of our forecast area
over northwestern Kansas. The synoptic scale pattern remained rather
non-descript over southwestern Kansas as the main polar jet stream
was well north of our area across its climatological latitude for
the end of June. That being said, a somewhat formidable, yet low
amplitude shortwave trough was pushing east along this polar jet
near the Canada line with another wave quick on its heels. The back-
to-back shortwave troughs combined will aid in pushing a polar cold
front south into South Dakota later today and tonight and eventually
northwestern Kansas by Sunday afternoon. This is when thunderstorm
chances will increase across our region, especially by evening
Sunday.

A southwest to northeast axis of scattered thunderstorms is likely
to unfold by early evening Sunday, stretching from west central
Kansas into north central Kansas, but given the fairly weak deep
layer shear (0-6km AGL shear vector magnitudes of 15 to 20 knots),
organized severe storms appear unlikely. The frontogenetic forcing,
however will compensate some, as loosely organized cold pools form,
so marginally severe wind gusts Sunday evening will be the main
severe weather risk. Whether these storms organize into a mesoscale
convective system (MCS) or not, we will also be watching farther
northwest in the post-frontal moist upslope region of northeastern
Colorado for another possible round of storms which would move
along/just north of the surface front through the night into
early Monday morning. Given proximity of one or two MCS`s to
southwest Kansas, POPs will remain in the 40-50 range.

The polar jet up north will amplify to the point that northwest flow
aloft will increase across western Nebraska into western Kansas
early next week, and this will help drive the polar front deeper
into Oklahoma/Southern Plains before eventually stalling out and
dissolving as the summer subtropical ridge begins to build back in
across New Mexico. Early next week, as a result, should be fairly
quiet as the upper level ridge builds back in and the low level
pattern recovers and responds again to the polar jet shaping up
again across the western CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Gusty southerly winds at around 15 knots is possible through
late day as surface pressures fall along the lee of the Rockies.
In addition to the falling pressures, a chance for widely
scattered thunderstorms exists. Any storms that develop are
expected to dissipate before reaching the Garden City area, but
some mid to high level cloudiness will spread across Western
Kansas overnight. Overnight, surface winds will decrease to the
10 to 15 knot range between 00z and 03z Sunday.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...Burgert