687
FXUS63 KDDC 151020
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
420 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

...Updated Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for Highway 83 east to 283
  corridor, up to I-70 until 10 AM CST.

- Multiple days of Near-Critical to Critical Fire Weather
  conditionsbecoming increasingly likely from Monday through
  Thursday. Tuesday continues to be of greatest concern given
  the magnitude of winds.

- Higher confidence (around 50%) in High Winds across at least
  the western third of the NWS DDC forecast area (generally
  Highway 83 west to the Colorado line). High Wind is defined as
  any wind gust 58 mph or greater or 40 mph sustained winds for
  an hour or more.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1000 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

In the near term late tonight through early Sunday morning,
the greatest concern will be development of fog and how
widespread any dense fog will be. The HRRR has been pretty
consistent run-to-run since late this afternoon in portraying an
axis of dense fog in the wake of our latest storm system. As of
0245Z, Nighttime Microphysics RGB was indicating a thinning out
of low stratus cloud, and this combined with weakening north
winds will allow more ideal radiational cooling to occur. Since
temperatures were already at the dewpoint in most locations, fog
is most likely to develop over a fairly large area. We have
already indicated this in the Wx grids, but we will need to
watch for possible issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory. Any dense
fog in the morning hours Sunday should dissipate by 15Z (9AM
CST) with sun returning to help warm things right back up into
the lower to even mid 60s by mid-late afternoon (Elkhart could
top out at 70). As the MSLP gradient increases late in the day,
south-southwest winds will redevelop, strongest near the
Colorado line at 15 to 25 mph.

A major pattern shift toward broad cyclonically-curved,
significant Pacific polar jet stream out West will commence by
early Tuesday, and the nose of the initial extended jet (160-170
knots at 250mb in its core) will push out across the Rockies
and into the central High Plains during the day Tuesday. This
will induce a deep, broad surface low to our north and a robust
pressure gradient across western Kansas. This tight pressure
gradient will extend into the mid troposphere, so very strong
winds will exist through a significant depth of the troposphere.
There is increasing confidence in High Winds (defined at peak
wind gusts 58+ mph or 40 mph sustained winds) across a large
portion of western Kansas, especially west of Highway 283. As of
the time of this AFD issuance, we continue to have discussions
with neighboring WFOs regarding a High Wind Watch issuance and
if so, for how much of western Kansas. The downslope warming is
likely to result in highs well into the mid to upper 70s Tuesday
afternoon with a few 80-degree highs also possible.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 420 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Satellite imagery and surface observations at 1015z depicted
widespread IFR/LIFR stratus, and areas of reduced visibility in
fog. Dense fog continued at LBL/GCK as of 1015z. Poor flying
conditions will continue through 15z Sun, with stratus, areas of
fog, and light winds. After 15z Sun, VFR/SKC is forecast to
return rapidly to all airports. After 18z Sun, south winds will
increase at all airports, gusting 23-27 kts. After 00z Mon,
south winds will remain elevated/gusty, enhanced by a nocturnal
low level jet. Included LLWS in all TAFs after 00z Mon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1000 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

A multi-day fire weather risk is forecast through the upcoming
week, and Tuesday appears to be the most critical day of the
week. Following is the daily fire weather risk magnitude/threat
area potential...

Monday: Mainly far southwest Kansas as the initial leeside low
pressure develops. Strong southwest winds will take a while to
develop, but the far 4-6 counties are at greatest risk
near-critical to potentially critical fire weather conditions
for a few hours late in the afternoon.

Tuesday: Widespread critical with even some high-end critical
conditions likely. A Fire Weather Watch will be issued to focus
on the threat this day. Peak wind gusts 50 to 60 mph will be
possible across far west central and southwest Kansas, which
will combine with minimum relative humidity down to around 15%.

Wednesday: The pressure gradient will relax briefly late Tuesday
Night into early Wednesday, however a second leeside low will
develop during the day day, putting southwest and west central
Kansas counties, at risk for another afternoon of critical
conditions on fairly strong southwest winds gusting 30 to 40 mph
(especially along/west of Highway 83).

Thursday: A fairly strong cold front will finally push through,
but since the air mass will not be all that cold, relative
humidity in the afternoon will still fall down to 20-25% across
a large area, down to 15% near the Oklahoma line on northwest
winds as strong as 20-30 mph with higher gusts.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for KSZ030-031-
043>046-063>065-076>078-086-087.
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>078-084>088.
Fire Weather Watch Tuesday afternoon for KSZ031-046-065-066-
079>081-089-090.
High Wind Watch Tuesday afternoon for KSZ043-061>063-074>076-
084>086.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...Turner
FIRE WEATHER...Umscheid