937
FXUS63 KDDC 222339
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
639 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry, mild and quiet Thursday.

- Moisture returns with low stratus clouds Friday.

- Limited severe weather potential Friday night, favoring the
  northern zones, with large hail the primary risk.

- Rain chances continue through the weekend, especially at
  night, with severe risk unseasonably low.

- A cold front will bring unseasonably cool afternoon
  temperatures, in the 60s, Sunday and Memorial Day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

A pleasant spring day was in progress at midday, with light
northeast winds and full sunshine. Strong subsidence under broad
ridging will keep SW KS dry, with light winds gradually veering
to easterly then southeasterly.

High confidence widespread stratus will overspread SW KS tonight
through early Friday, as moisture advection resumes on elevated
south/southeast winds. Widespread fog is not anticipated, but
consensus of short term models suggests that stratus will be
quite stubborn to erode Friday, holding across the central zones
at least through midday. 12z NAM sharpens a dryline near the
KS/CO border by late afternoon, with dewpoints in the low to
mid 60s east of the dryline. Where sunshine returns Friday
afternoon, instability will build, with NAM forecasting CAPE of
2-3k J/kg. Forcing for ascent/initiation will be weak and less
than obvious, but global models do show a weak shortwave
rippling over the dryline at peak heating Friday, and some CAMs
such as 12z ARW suggest isolated storm development along the
dryline. Shear/instability and climatology will support
supercells should a storm develop, but confidence on coverage
and/or placement is very low. A large temperature range is
expected Friday, ranging from lower 90s west behind the dryline,
to only 60s east where stratus fails to clear eastern zones.

Scattered thunderstorm development is much more likely after
sunset Friday night and early Saturday, in response to warm air
advection and the low level jet. This activity will pose a
primary risk of large hail, as shown by 5-15% hail probability
on SPC Day 2. Elevated instability will be strong Friday night,
with NAM forecasting MUCAPE near 4000 J/kg across northern zones
around midnight. Elevated supercells with significant hail (2
inches +) are possible.

Model guidance has shown consistency, progressing the cold front
southward through a majority of Kansas on Saturday. Elevated
northeast winds, cool advection and below normal temperatures
are expected. While areas adjacent to Oklahoma should still get
close to normal, near 80, northern zones will struggle to only
the lower 60s. Pending cloud cover, which should be
considerable, the forecast may be too warm Saturday, with
12z MAV forecasting only a high of 65 at DDC. 12z NAM shows the
cold front clearly progressing southward well south of the KS/OK
border Saturday afternoon, restricting any surface-based
instability and severe threat to Oklahoma. Convection appears
much more unlikely in Kansas, with more of a drizzle more
apparent.

More elevated showers and thunderstorms are likely Saturday
night through early Sunday, particularly northeast of Dodge
City, downstream of a 576 dm closed cyclone over the Great
Basin. NBM pops are as high as the definite category along the
I-70 corridor, again with a threat of elevated supercells and an
associated large hail risk.

Sunday and Memorial Day, the broad relatively weak longwave
trough over the Rockies drifts onto the plains, so at least
scattered rain chances will remain in the forecast. Northeast
winds and cool advection will restrict afternoon temperatures to
the 60s at many locations, for an unseasonably cool Memorial Day
weekend. The removal of all instability will eliminate any
chance of severe weather Sunday and Monday, quite unusual for
the climatological peak of our severe season.

Global models develop yet another omega block along the spine of
the Rockies Tuesday and Wednesday. This will continue to prevent
any significant severe weather, and keep SW KS largely dry with
moderating temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 636 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

VFR conditions will prevail tonight with low clouds developing
towards sunrise tomorrow bringing MVFR to IFR conditions. Winds
will generally be from the southeast, becoming breezy tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Hovorka_42