183
FXUS63 KDDC 040945
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
445 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

...Updated Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm temperatures today.

- Higher rain chances (70-90%) arrive Tuesday night into
  Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

WV imagery indicates a fairly zonal flow aloft prevailing across
the Western High Plains. Near the surface, a nearly stalled
frontal boundary extends from extreme southwest Kansas
northeastward into central Kansas.

Minimal rain/thunderstorm chances (20-30%) return to portions
of western Kansas this evening as the SREF indicates a series
of H5 vort maxima ejecting eastward out of the Colorado Rockies
downstream of a positively- tilted closed upper low pushing off
the Pacific into central/southern California. As the system well
out west approaches, an upper level shortwave perturbation
within a larger scale upper level trough will dig southeast
through the Dakotas/Upper Midwest today, ushering an attendant
cold front southward into western/central Kansas this evening.
Despite limited moisture availability (surface dewpoints
generally in the 40s(F)) hindering instability, sufficient lift
associated with the boundary combined with an intensifying
westerly flow aloft (+110kt) and limited instability (MUCAPE
values upward of 500 J/kg or so) will set the stage for
potential shower/isolated storm development overnight as H5 vort
maxima transition through the region. The best chance for
precip will be across west central Kansas into central Kansas in
vicinity of the I- 70 corridor where the NBM shows a 10-20%
probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding only 0.1 of an inch by early
Tuesday morning. Areas farther south are expected to remain
relatively dry.

More significant rain chances (70-90%) arrive late Tuesday as the
closed upper low out west opens up as it shifts east into the Four
Corners Region, creating an increasingly difluent southwest flow
aloft, not to mention a strengthening +120kt jet lifting northeast
through northeast New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. Meanwhile, a
stalled frontal boundary will remain well to our south while an east-
northeast upslope flow prevails across western Kansas. With this,
widespread rain development is forecast Tuesday night, continuing
through much of the day Wednesday. The best chance for appreciable
rainfall by Wednesday evening will be across west central, central,
and northern portions of southwest Kansas where the NBM suggests a
60-80% probability of 24-hr QPF topping 0.5 of an inch with much
lesser amounts southeastward into south central Kansas.

Unseasonably warm temperatures are likely today as
west-northwesterlydownsloping develops in wake of a trough axis
advancing east throughsouthwest Kansas into south central
Kansas by late afternoon, helping push H85 temperatures up
around 20C in central Kansas to near 25C out near the Colorado
line. Despite expected increasing high clouds, look for
afternoon highs in the 80s(F) with the HREF painting a
widespread 90% probability of temperatures pushing above 80F
with a 70-90% probability of temperatures nudging above 85F in
south central Kansas. A cold front will surge southward through
western Kansas tonight, allowing much cooler air to spread
through the region Tuesday with unseasonably colder air settling
in Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 445 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR will continue through this TAF period, with increasing
cirrus daylight Monday, and increasing midlevel clouds expected
through Tuesday morning. Light winds will continue through
00z Tue. A strong but dry cold front will race through the
airports 03-06z Tue, followed by a sharp increase in northeast
winds, gusting near 35 kts.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...Turner