186
FXUS63 KDDC 231023
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
523 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rainfall chances increasing this weekend into early next week.

- A slight risk of Excessive Rain has been issued by WPC across
portions of western Kansas Sunday and Monday.

- Heavy rain again possible with showers and storms Tuesday into
early Wednesday. Heavy rain will be the main concern with these
showers/storms.

- Fall like temperatures expected across southwest Kansas during
  the first half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

The synoptic pattern in the upper levels will consist of a strong
trough of low pressure moving along the US/Canada border with a
strong ridge of high pressure over the Four Corners Region. As time
progresses, the trough will deepen across the eastern half of the
United States with the ridge to the west continuing to weaken.
Western Kansas will experience southwest flow aloft with a strong
jet digging into the Central High Plains by tonight. A series of
shortwave trough will be found diving southeastward between these
two systems increasing precipitation chances across the CWA
over the next several days.

The first disturbance is currently pushing a cold front through the
area shifting winds to the northeast with increasing mid level
cloudiness. A few scattered showers or thunderstorms will be
possible through this morning with decreasing chances this
afternoon. Skies will be mostly cloudy with a few breaks in the
clouds this afternoon. As for temperatures, highs today will be
around 80 degrees with the exception of along the KS/OK border
where mid to upper 80s will be possible.

Short range ensembles then show a few thunderstorms developing
across eastern Colorado into western Kansas late this
afternoon/early evening. These storms then shift eastward through
the area overnight into tomorrow morning. At this time these storms
do not look to become severe in nature. Cloudy skies are expected
overnight with lows reaching around 60 degrees. Decreasing
cloudiness will be possible Sunday afternoon but cloud up again
Sunday night as another disturbance moves through the area bringing
another chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rain
will be possible overnight Sunday with most places receiving over an
inch of rain. Highs Sunday look to range form the upper 70s across
our northern zones to upper 80s across far southwestern Kansas. Lows
Sunday night will dip into the upper 50s to low 60s.

The upper level trough continues to deepen across the Eastern United
States as we head into the first part of next week with a few more
shortwaves moving around its periphery.  This will bring continued
chances of precipitation to western Kansas. The main concern with
these showers and storms will be heavy rain. PWAT values look to
exceed climate normals and WPC has issued a slight risk of Excessive
rain across portions of western Kansas Sunday and Monday. In
addition, cold air advection will bring much cooler temperatures to
western Kansas Monday through Wednesday. High during this period
will be in the in the 60s to low 70s with lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 523 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

A cold front moving through the area will bring mid level
cloudiness to western Kansas this morning into the afternoon.
Some clearing will be possible this afternoon. Wind will shift
to the northeast behind this front with only a slight increase
in speed.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Hovorka_42