431
FXUS63 KDDC 051859
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
159 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail larger than 2",
  strong damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall will be
  possible this afternoon and early tonight. A tornado or two
  can not be ruled out late today across extreme southwest
  Kansas.

- Heavy rainfall tonight from these thunderstorms may result in
  localized flash flooding along the Oklahoma border and areas
  east of Liberal. A flood watch is in effect for these
  locations.

- There are chance for severe thunderstorms Friday evening and
  overnight near the Oklahoma border (15 to near 30%).

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Mesoscale discussion...

Unusually cool 700mb temperatures for early June has resulted in
very weak capping and early storm initiation this afternoon.
There is a sharp drop off in potential temperature east of the
Colorado state line due to persistent low stratus. 0-1 km srh is
around 100 m2/s2 and is advertised to increase slighly by 00z.
With bulk shear values over 50 kts, supercell mode is likely
with very large hail. Although the low level shear is marginal,
there is still potential for tornadoes for sharply right turning
storms.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Earlier this morning, an upper level wave, based on 700-400 mb
differential vorticity advection and associated ongoing light
convection, was moving across northern Kansas. A second upper
level wave appears to be located near the Four Corners region
based on 400 mb PVU. At the surface, a boundary extended from
extreme southeastern Colorado into the Texas Panhandle with
widespread stratus and an easterly upslope flow located north of
this boundary. Visible satellite imagery indicates breaks in
the low cloud cover along and north of the boundary. Clearing
skies near this surface boundary will be critical for afternoon
thunderstorm development as this surface boundary moves across
extreme southwestern Kansas today.

Severe Weather Potential Late Today into Early Tonight.
Short term models were in agreement and also had run to run
consistency in moving this surface boundary into southwest
Kansas by early afternoon. Partial clearing will support
increased surface-based instability. Given this combined with
0-6 km shear exceeding 40 knots and continued moisture
advection on southeasterly flow...conditions appear favorable
for severe thunderstorm development by mid afternoon as the HRRR
suggests. Agree with the SPCs assessment that a few supercells
may develop along the boundary late in the day and what storms
that do develop will be capable of producing very large hail
(greater than 2 inches in diameter) and damaging winds. Low
level shear near the boundary may also support a brief, isolated
tornado or two while storms remain discrete. The corridor of
greatest risk currently appears to be from south of Syracuse
through Garden City and Dodge City, extending toward Pratt.

Secondary Storm Threat Overnight.
Storms that develop this afternoon will move southeast into
Oklahoma by early evening. However as these storms begin to exit
southwest Kansas another cluster of thunderstorms, originating
earlier in the day across eastern Colorado, is expected to enter
southwest Kansas. These evening storms may bring strong
damaging winds and heavy rainfall. Since this second round will
track over areas already affected by the afternoon storms,
training cells could lead to localized flash flooding. Given the
current rainfall forecast between 1.5 and 2.5 inches south and
east of Dodge City, latest Flash Flood Guidances and
thunderstorms with heavy rainfall moving over the same area
overnight will go ahead on issuing a Flood Watch for excessive
flooding. The severe threat should diminish around or shortly
after midnight as storms shift south into Oklahoma.

Another Risk for Severe Weather Friday.
Rain cooled outflow from tonights storms will push the surface
boundary south into the Texas Panhandle. The SREF model keeps
this boundary south of the Oklahoma border through 00Z Saturday
but a moist upslope flow will persist across extreme southwest
Kansas. By late Friday, renewed instability and increasing lift
near the boundary may trigger additional afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. These storms will likely move southeast along a
corridor of enhanced moisture and instability. Wind gusts up to
60 mph and locally heavy rainfall will be the primary hazards
from Saturdays storms.

After a brief break in convection on Saturday night,
thunderstorm chances return Sunday. A northern branch upper low
will move across the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes,
allowing a cold front to sweep across southwest Kansas. Forecast
guidance currently indicates a 3050% chance for CAPE >500 J/kg
and shear >30 kt, supporting the potential for late afternoon
and evening thunderstorms. The best overlap of shear and
instability currently appears to be focused near and south of
the Oklahoma border.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Low clouds across southwest Kansas at 17z today will give way
to some breaks of sunshine and VFR conditions between 21z today
and 00z Friday. The exception will be the Hays area where VFR
conditions have already developed. This improving sky cover will
not last long as scattered thunderstorms will be developing and
moving across southwest Kansas late today and overnight. There
is a risk of severe weather late today and overnight but this
will be primary focused south of the Dodge City and Garden City
areas. As these thunderstorms spread across southwest Kansas
early tonight (between 03z-06z) there is a 60-80% chance for
ceilings to fall below 1000ft AGL. These low clouds will linger
through the overnight hours and into early Thursday morning.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Friday morning
for KSZ087>090.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Finch
DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert