313
FXUS63 KDDC 130705
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
205 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions through Tuesday.

- Warming trend expected through mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

WV imagery indicates a weak upper level trough of low pressure
shifting east through the Central Plains while ridging aloft builds
in across the Desert Southwest. Near the surface, high pressure is
drifting east through the Central Plains.

Tranquil conditions are likely early in the period as the SREF
indicates ridging aloft, already building in across the Desert
Southwest, expanding farther northeast into the Western High Plains
today into Monday. Despite sufficient moisture/instability present,
a weak/disorganized flow aloft and lack of any other triggering
mechanism will allow relatively dry conditions to persist through
Monday night. Temperatures will rebound today as departing surface
high pressure gives way to southerlies across western Kansas by
early afternoon, helping push H85 temperatures back up around 20C in
central Kansas to near 25C along the Colorado line. Under increased
sunshine, look for afternoon highs well up into the 80s(F) to near
90F as suggested by the HREF painting a widespread 70-90% probability
of temperatures exceeding 85F today. With prevailing southerlies
persisting into Monday, a warming trend will see widespread afternoon
highs in the 90s(F).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through
late afternoon. Light and variable winds through late morning will
become southerly 5 to 15kt generally after 16-18Z as surface high
pressure moves farther east through the Central Plains.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson