648
FXUS63 KDDC 050907
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
307 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of freezing fog will be possible this morning

- Light freezing drizzle possible across south central
Kansas this morning

- Southwest Kansas will remain dry this afternoon through next
Monday

- Long range ensembles show a chance of precipitation next
Tuesday/Wednesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Upslope winds and ample low level moisture will allow low clouds to
persist this morning across the CWA. Some patchy freezing fog is
expected in some places and may see visibilities down to a quarter
of a mile at times. Areas of freezing drizzle will also remain
possible across portions of south central Kansas during the morning
hours. Any ice accumulation will be less than a tenth of an inch,
but some slick spots will be possible.  The winter weather advisory
is in effect in this area. A warm front will then push northward and
into much of the forecast area this afternoon shifting winds to the
southwest and bring in drier air. Clouds will decrease from west to
east and become mostly clear by this evening. Very low RHs are
expected across far southwestern Kansas this afternoon. Even though
winds may not reach criteria, a red flag is in effect in this area.
A wide range of temperatures are expected today with highs ranging
from the 40s across central Kansas where the warm front is not
expected to move through to 70s across far southwestern Kansas.

A weak shortwave will then move through the area tonight and help
push a cold front through the area early tomorrow morning. This will
shift winds to the north with highs in the afternoon only reaching
into the mid 40s to mid 50s. The oscillating pattern repeats Friday,
as once again southwesterly downslope winds try to nudge the cooler
air out. Another large range of temperature are expected for highs
with 40s northeast to 70s southwest. The next dry cold front remains
consistent in the guidance, arriving Saturday morning. This front
appears stronger with more robust north winds and cold air
advection. Chilly air persists through Sunday, with afternoon
temperatures relegated to the 30s. Despite southerly flow returning,
cold air looks to hold on through Monday. Long range ensembles
continue to show a disturbance moving through the area Tuesday into
Wednesday next week.  If the pattern remains consistent, there could
be some chances of precipitation with this system.  Future model
runs will need to be watch to see if this comes to fruition.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1106 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

LIFR ceilings and visibilities are expected overnight with
dense fog expected at times. These low clouds should dissipate
by tomorrow afternoon giving away to mostly clear skies. Winds
will generally be from an easterly direction through late
morning then shift to the southwest as a warm front slides
northward across the area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 219 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

Opted to issue a red flag warning for Wednesday afternoon for
Stanton, Morton and Stevens counties. In this limited area, an
intrusion of much warmer air is expected after noon Wednesday,
with temperatures well into the 70s forcing relative humidity to
fall as low as 10%. West to southwest winds will also increase
to 20-30 mph in these zones, and after coordination with WFOs
AMA/PUB, a red flag warning was issued. Outdoor burning is
discouraged.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CST /6 AM MST/ this morning for
KSZ061-062-074>076-085-086.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for KSZ066-081-
089-090.
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for
KSZ074-084-085.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42
FIRE WEATHER...Turner