567
FXUS63 KDDC 042200
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...Updated Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms will be scattered (20-50% chances) across
  central and southwest Kansas late this afternoon into the
  evening hours

- Warm and humid weather will persist for the next week, with high
  temperatures near seasonal levels in the upper 80s to mid
  90s.

- There are chances for isolated to scattered thunderstorms
  Sunday through Tuesday (10-40%), with better chances late
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

A summer pattern of unsettled weather is taking shape across
the western high plains, promising chances for thunderstorms
over the next several days, though with varying degrees of
certainty. For today, Independence Day, a weak shortwave trough
is expected to track across the central Rockies and into the
Plains. This feature, combined with increasing low-level
moisture, will provide a focus for isolated to scattered
thunderstorms across western Kansas, mainly during the late
afternoon and evening hours. These storms may form into a
cluster across west central Kansasthis evening and move
southeast through the area. These storms are not expected to be
severe, but the strongest storms will be capable of producing
hail up to an inch and winds over 50 mph. Temperatures will
remain near seasonal averages, with highs generally in the upper
80s to low 90s before falling into the mid- 60s overnight.

The potential for showers and thunderstorms continues into
Saturday, though the forecast details become a bit more
conditional. Any storms from Friday night are expected to
diminish or move out of the area during the morning hours. This
may be followed by a lull in the activity before another weak
disturbance approaches later in the day. The redevelopment of
storms on Saturday afternoon will largely depend on the extent
of morning cloud cover and how much the atmosphere can
destabilize. If sunshine is prevalent during the day, scattered
thunderstorms could once again develop, but overall confidence
in their strength and coverage remains low. Temperatures are
expected to be warmer, with highs climbing into the low 90s,
while overnight lows will again settle into the mid-60s.

Looking ahead to the remainder of the holiday weekend and into
next week, the forecast becomes considerably more uncertain. A
broad upper-level ridge is expected to build over the
southwestern United States, which will be the dominant synoptic
feature. The weather for western Kansas will be highly dependent
on the subtle, smaller-scale disturbances that will rotate
around the periphery of this large ridge. This type of pattern,
often referred to as a "ring of fire," is notorious for being
difficult to predict with a high degree of accuracy several days
in advance. Temperatures during this time frame are expected to
fluctuate with these small changes, with daily highs generally
ranging from the mid-80s to the low 90s and overnight lows
consistently in the 60s.

The day-to-day weather from Sunday through the middle of next
week will be a classic case of a meteorological "domino
effect." The timing and evolution of each small wave of energy
will directly influence the conditions for the following day`s
potential for storms. This includes the placement of any outflow
boundaries from prior convection, which can serve as a focus
for new storm development. As a result, while there will likely
be daily chances for thunderstorms, their exact timing and
location are difficult to pinpoint this far out.

Therefore, residents of western Kansas should anticipate a
period of generally unsettled weather from Sunday onward, but
the specifics of the daily forecast will likely change. It is
not a situation where a widespread, all-day rain is expected,
but rather the potential for scattered, pop-up afternoon and
evening thunderstorms. The confidence in whether any given day
will be a "bullseye" for more numerous storms is low.Lows will
generally be in the 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 500 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Radar imagery at 2130z depicted scattered thunderstorms near and
south of HYS. Models forecast a more organized complex of
thunderstorms to progress southeast 00-06z Sat, with enough
confidence to include convective TEMPO groups at GCK/DDC/HYS.
Storms may go mostly north of LBL, so only included VCTS/CB at
LBL. Variable erratic outflow winds up to 45 kts are possible
near any thunderstorm this evening. In a very moist boundary
layer, areas of MVFR stratus and reduced visibility in BR are
possible for several hours Saturday morning, most likely at DDC.
Good flying weather is expected daylight Saturday, with VFR and
light winds.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Turner