632
FXUS63 KDDC 062010
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
310 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heavy rainfall tonight may result in areas of flash flooding.
  A Flood Watch is in effect tonight along and south of a
  Syracuse to Garden City to Dodge City to Pratt line.

- Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail (>2"), strong
  damaging winds and even a few isolated tornadoes will be
  possible early this evening (30-44%).

- A dry start to the weekend will give way to a chance for
  thunderstorms on Sunday (20-40%).

- Dry and warmer temperatures return to southwest Kansas on
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

At 12Z Friday morning a -18C 500mb trough was located over
Wyoming. Ahead of this upper trough, a moist baroclinic zone at
700mb extended from northeast Colorado into western Nebraska.
Precipitable water values, based on the DDC sounding, was 1.1
inches, which is near the 90th percentile for this time of year.

Short term models are in agreement on progressing this upper
trough into northwest Kansas by evening, with enhanced moisture
and large scale lift spreading into southwest Kansas early
tonight. As the upper level trough approaches and encountersthe
abundant moisture in place across southwest Kansas...widespread
rainfall, heavy at times, will develop. Given the moisture and
lift overnight, there is little reason to disagree with the
HREFs high 6hourly probabilities for 1 and 2 inch rainfall
totals.Furthermore the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index of 0.7 to
0.8 between 00Z Saturday and 00Z Sunday aligns well with the
HREF forecast track for the heaviest rainfall. All this has
enhanced confidence for keeping ongoing Flood Watch given the
potential for numerous flash flooding events, especially in
areas that received 2 to 5 inches of rain during last nights
event.

In addition to heavy rainfall we will also be monitoring the
potential for severe thunderstorms across extreme southwest
Kansas. A surface boundary that previously pushed south into
Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle is expected to lift northward
as the upper level trough approaches. As it does a moist
southeast flow will develop north of this boundary. This
combined with the mean shear and instability forecast by the
SREF will create an environment favorable for discrete
supercells late today through early this evening.Similar to
last night...any storms that develop near the boundary early
this evening could produce hail larger than 2 inches, isolated
damaging winds, and possibly a few tornadoes. As latest short
term models filter in and considering the location of the low
level theta-e axis north of the boundary, there is concern that
the SPC may have placed the enhanced hail risk a little too far
northeast. Currently it appears that the main severe threat may
be closer to the Oklahoma border. However, a slight northward
shift in the surface boundary would place locations such as
Syracuse, Garden City, and Dodge City within the zone of
enhanced hail potential.

After midnight the upper level trough will cross western
Kansas. Rainfall will gradually taper off from west to east. A
surface high will then build into southwest Kansas which will
bring a break from the wet weather pattern on Saturday.

On Sunday another surface boundary will move through western
Kansas as a northern branch upper level trough/low crosses the
Northern Plains moves into the Great Lakes region. As this
surface boundary passes during the afternoon, thunderstorms may
develop. At this time howeverthe ensemble clusters currently
suggest that the best chances for CAPE values >1000 and shear
of+30knots will be late in the day and near the Oklahoma border
so anyrisk for thunderstorms should be focused south of the
ArkansasRiver.

Looking into the first half of next week...ensemble clusters
indicated good agreement on an upper level ridge moving eastward
across the Rockies and into the Plains. This pattern will favor
warmer, drier conditions across western Kansas. Thunderstorm
chances however are expected to return later in the workweek as
an upper level low slides south along the coast of British
Columbia toward the Pacific Northwest and a upper level trough
begins to develop over the western United States.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Light northeasterly winds will become east at 10 to 15 knots by
00z Saturday as an area of high pressure at the surface exits
western Kansas and surface pressures fall along the lee of the
Rockies in response to an approaching upper level trough. Low
clouds and patchy fog at 17z will give way to VFR ceilings
(3500-7000) after 21z. The chance for thunderstorms will
increase this evening as the upper level trough moves into the
West Central High Plains. A few of these storms will be capable
of producing heavy rain, large hail and gusty winds as they
cross southwest Kansas early tonight. The best chance for large
hail will stay west of a Garden City to Liberal line tonight.
Heavy rainfall which will reduce visibility to 1 mile or less will
be the main hazards as these storms cross the Garden City and
Liberal areas between 03z and 07z and then the Dodge City area
between 04z and 09z. Hays will also have thunderstorms between
04z and 09z also but the risk of heavy rain is not expected.
Once these storms pass there will be a +70% chance for ceilings
to fall below 1000ft AGL between 12z and 18z Saturday.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ061>063-074>078-
080-081-084>090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert