974
FXUS63 KDDC 020520
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1220 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe storms clipping far
  west central KS tonight, but much of the severe risk will
  remain over Colorado tonight.

- Much better chance for strong and severe thunderstorms late
  Saturday and Saturday Night with a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5)
  covering portions of Southwest and west central Kansas, west
  of a Liberal to Scott City line.

- Hot and dry weather will return next week with multiple days
  likely upper 90s to lower 100s for highs starting around
  Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Early this afternoon, satellite imagery and radar mosaic
were showing initial development of thunderstorms over the
Colorado Rockies, which will advance east later this afternoon
and evening, at the nose of a fairly impressive mid-summer jet
core. Surface observations continued to show response from this
jet as a lee trough axis deepening from Wyoming into Colorado.
The southeast winds were pushing low level moisture deeper into
eastern Colorado, and 18Z objective analysis was showing a
fairly large axis of SBCAPE 2000+ J/kg across almost all of
eastern Colorado. Storms will thrive within this fairly high
CAPE air mass this evening, and one or two MCSs will likely form
later this evening as they approach the Kansas line. As storms
push east tonight, they will eventually "outrun" the higher CAPE
air, and is the main reason why convection-allowing models
really dissipate simulated thunderstorms later in the evening,
especially by 06Z or so. That said, the largest of the evening
MCSs should still march far enough east to support 20-30 POPs,
generally west of Highway 283.

Saturday and Saturday Night, the upper level jet will advance
farther east across the High Plains, and another round of
organized thunderstorm activity will ensue. With the lee trough
convergence axis shifted farther east, initiation of afternoon
storms Saturday will be farther east vs. this afternoon and
evening, thus a greater chance for more areas of west central
and southwest Kansas seeing storms. POPs are in the 40 to 60%
range, particularly Saturday evening. The 0-6km AGL shear will
be very good across all of western Kansas Saturday evening, on
the order of 40-50 knots, which is more than sufficient for
organized severe thunderstorm activity, including supercell
structures early on in the event. One or two strong/severe MCSs
are likely, which will continue the severe risk well into the
night.

Moist southeast winds will redevelop again Sunday, and this
will set up a third afternoon of eastern Colorado thunderstorms
along the leeside trough, although the lee trough itself will
not be as well- developed Sunday as the upper level jet deforms
and lifts north. The summer subtropical high will expand early
next week, and a bonafide large 500mb anticyclone will become
the dominant meteorological feature by mid week. This will mark
the beginning of a hotter, drier pattern for southwest Kansas
with 100-degree heat likely to expand across southwest Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Wildfire smoke continues to impact all terminals, especially
DDC, with visibilities teetering on the edge of MVFR, and the
latest HRRR near-surface smoke density fields suggests this
will continue through the day Saturday. Otherwise, current light
southeast winds will strengthen modestly into the 10-15 kts
range this afternoon before weakening after sunset to aob 10
kts.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...Springer