835
FXUS63 KDDC 200506
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1206 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High probabilities of rain (80-90%) for areas mainly along and
east of a Liberal to Hays line on Sunday

- Dry to start off the next work week

- Active weather pattern returns towards mid to late week with rain
and storms

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

19Z surface observation and upper air analysis shows a 555 dm closed
low centered near the four corners region with a stream of moisture
from central Mexico through the Great Lakes and this moisture is
leading to mainly a mid level cloud deck across southwest Kansas
with a few rain showers developing along a 700 mb shortwave in south
central Kansas.  A surface high in northeast Colorado and a high
pressure center at the 850 mb level in central Nebraska is leading
to mainly northeast winds and cool temperatures across southwest
Kansas.

Tonight into Sunday HREF and NBM guidance are in good agreement that
once the upper low moves into the northeast Texas panhandle by
sunrise we should see a deformation zone develop with mainly light
to moderate rain setting up roughly along and east of a Liberal to
Hays line and the greatest probabilities of rain and highest amounts
of rain moreso along and east of a Larned to Coldwater line.  HREF
probabilities of > 0.25 inches of rain in the 24 hour period on
Sunday are at 50-100% east of the Liberal to Hays line and NBM is at
50-80%.  Increasing the probability to 1 inch of rain puts the
probabilities east of a Larned to Coldwater line at 40-80%.  Given
how the short term models have the closed low track from the
northeast Texas panhandle in the morning to northeast Kansas by the
afternoon the best area of 700 mb lift for the deformation zone is
leading to these higher probabilities.  As you go farther west the
probabilities of rain and higher amounts go down dramatically so we
will probably see a tight gradient between the higher QPF and the
lower QPF.  The track of the upper low will be very important and
monitored over the next 24 hours.

As the low moves to the east Sunday afternoon we should see the
skies clear quickly from west to east and as a result we should see
highs in the mid 60s in the west where there will be more sun and
less rain and temperatures will be in the lower 50s in central
Kansas where the rain and clouds will stick around pretty much all
day.  Sunday evening all of western Kansas should see clear skies
and light west winds which should allow good radiational cooling
that temperatures fall into the mid to upper 30s.

Monday into Tuesday the upper level pattern should turn more zonal
and dry conditions are expected.  With west to southwest downsloping
winds and sunny to partly cloudy skies, we should see temperatures
warm back into the 70s and 80s.  The main highlight on Tuesday will
be a weak frontal boundary moving through western Kansas switching
the winds to the northeast but the cold air advection isn`t very
strong so temperatures won`t be affected very much.

Late Tuesday night into Wednesday a shortwave will move in from the
southwest and with a warm front positioned roughly from the
northwest Texas panhandle through central Kansas we should see
thunderstorms develop as the upper level lift moves northeastward
through the night.  NBM probabilities for storms increases quickly
after midnight as chances of rain go to 40-60% throughout the day on
Wednesday.  LREF upper level pattern forecast continues to keep us
in a southwest regime in the upper level pattern with periodic
shortwaves leading to convection through the day on Thursday and our
highest chances of rain and storms (70-80%).  CSU-MLP and long range
ensemble forecasts are hinting at an increased probability of severe
weather for Wednesday and Thursday however this will need to be
monitored as the troughs don`t look too strong at this point and
thermodynamic setup doesn`t look favorable for widespread severe
weather.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Stratus and rain is anticipated to overspread the southeast
half of the area overnight into much of the day on Sunday. Light
northerly/northeasterly surface winds will prevail everywhere
as gusts to return to around 20 knots after 15z. Differences
arise in the the expectations of where the IFR/LIFR stratus
might be. Probabilities for sub 1000 ft ceilings area quite low
(10%) at Liberal and Garden City, while ramping up to 70 % for a
few hours between 13z and 19z at Hays and Dodge City. For DDC
and HYS, come reduction I VSBY into the MVFR category (3-5sm) is
likely (70% chance) however, this warm advection pattern does
not show any signal for the dense form of fog.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Russell