070
FXUS63 KDDC 111105
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
605 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Excessive heat will continue across southwest Kansas. High
  temperatures Tuesday will range from 102 to near 107 and heat
  index values of 103 to 108 possible. A heat advisory is in
  effect for Tuesday.

- Elevated fire weather risk possible for areas near the
  Oklahoma border and west of highway 83 Tuesday afternoon.
  Afternoon humidity of around 20% will be possible with gusty
  south southwest winds at 15 to 25 mph.

- A break in the heat returns by early this weekend. Rain
  chances will also be on the increase this upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Unseasonable warm 850mb temperatures (30 to 35C) remain in
place earlier this evening along and south of a surface trough
of low pressure extending from northeast Kansas into eastern
Colorado. Along/near this boundary, much like the past few
evenings, a few isolated high based storms developed across
eastern Colorado and northwest Kansas. While these storm were
sub severe...gusty winds in excess of 50 mph were possible given
the large low level lapse rates and forecast downdraft cape.
This scenario (<15% chance for late day storms) will again be
possible Tuesday night near/in west central Kansas as the
surface trough remains nearly stationary and a subtle upper
level wave rotates around an upper level ridge. Although severe
weather is not expected, any storm that does develop will be
capable of producing strong gusty winds.

The surface trough of low pressure will not be the only feature
not to move much over the next few days...anomalously warm
850mb temperatures will also remain in place across southwest
Kansas through mid week as the upper ridge near the four corners
region moves east into the southern/central plains. As this
upper ridge slides east these 850mb temperatures may even warm
a degree or two between 00z Tuesday and 00z Thursday. As a
result high temperatures across southwest Kansas will stay near
the same as what occurred on Monday or maybe even a few degrees
warmer. NBM guidance continues to have a cool bias on high
temperatures with the 75th to 90th percentile doing a much
better job with verification. Also this trend towards warmer
highs is further supported by the ongoing forecast of 850mb
temperatures at 00z each day ranging from 32 to 35C, 700mb
temperatures of 14 to 16C, and continue deep mixing potential.
Regarding dewpoints across southwest Kansas, the south
southwesterly low level flow and afternoon mixing will likely
keep afternoon dewpoints in the 50s with the lowest dewpoints
expected across far west Kansas. Based on the expected highs and
afternoon dewpoints it appears that the heat index values will
not be much higher on Tuesday and Wednesday compared to what we
had today (afternoon heat index ranging from of 102 to near
108). This is the third straight day of heat index values at or
above 102 across all of southwest Kansas. A heat advisory has
already been issued for locations east of highway 283 but given
this will be the third day of heat index values at or above 102
and that the past overnight lows were/will be the mid 70s, which
limits the recovery time from afternoon heat, have decided
expand the heat advisory westward to the Colorado border.

Along with the heat on Tuesday there will also be an increase
in the fire weather risk. While current forecast dewpoints may
keep afternoon heat index values just below 105 in some
locations...they will produce afternoon humidity values as low
as 17 to 20 percent, mainly near the Oklahoma border and west of
highway 83. These low humidity values combined with gusty south
winds will create an environment that will make it easier for
fires to escape control and be more difficult to contain.
Outdoor burning is discouraged, especially west of highway 83
and near the Oklahoma border.

Some relief from the extended heat is anticipated by the start
of the weekend. As the upper level ridge shift eastward and a
upper trough moves/develop over the western United States, a
cold front will sag south into western Kansas. This front will
bring more seasonal temperatures back to north central and
southwest Kansas by the beginning of the weekend. In addition to
these more seasonal temperatures the chance of rain will be on
the increase as several upper waves embedded in the developing
southwest flow moves from the southwest United States into the
Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 600 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Widespread VFR flight category will continue through this TAF
period as the ongoing heat wave continues across western Kansas.
There will be no major wind shift change in speed or direction,
with the typical diurnal increase in wind speed, except perhaps
at GCK closer to the leeside trough axis.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-
074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Umscheid