291
FXUS63 KDDC 171932
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
232 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- After a cooler day today, expect warmer and more humid weather
  for Friday.

- This weekend will mark the beginning of a prolonged hot and
  mainly dry spell.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025


Over the next several days upper level ridging will gradually
expand northward across the plains and Midwest. A surface front
over the southern plains will shift northward along with the
ridging. Initially we will have very high dewpoints in place
across Kansas this weekend before we warm up and dry out. This
will result in very humid weather Saturday and Sunday. There are
small chances (10-20% or less) of thunderstorms through Sunday
given the mid level westerlies still in place across the
Rockies, along with the resultant capping inversion and
accompanying potential instability. After Sunday, high
temperatures will warm to the upper 90s to near 100 and humidity
levels will come down some. This drying will diminish
thunderstorm chances even further due to diminished potential
instability. As we dry out, high temperatures will gradually
warm to 100 degrees and possibly higher. The only caveat to a
dry forecast is that the models show the upper level ridge
centered east of the plains, allowing for some monsoonal
moisture to advect northward from the tropics. The various
ensemble mean moisture fields show a signal of this monsoonal
flow across the western high plains and foothills, with 700mb
humidity rising into the 60-80% range. This would limit the
strength of any capping inversion and possibly allow for
thunderstorm activity. The various ensemble mean precipitation
is very low, indicating the isolated nature of any
thunderstorms. Therefore, hot and mainly dry weather can be
expected through next weekend; but isolated thunderstorms can`t
be completely ruled out, particularly across extreme western
Kansas in closer proximity to the monsoonal flow.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Low level upslope flow in the wake of a cold front has resulted
in lingering IFR/MVFR CIGS early this afternoon. With continued
daytime heating, CIGS will improve through 00z. Light east
winds tonight and diurnal cooling may result in redevelopment of
IFR/MVFR CIGS toward morning; but this will quickly improve to
VFR with daytime heating by 16-17z. Winds will become southerly
at 10-15 kts toward the end of the period as a surface trough
forms in the lee of the Rockies.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...Finch