099
FXUS63 KDDC 171015
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
515 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated storms possible on Saturday

- An increasing uncertainty in the thunderstorm forecast on Sunday

- Thunderstorms possible on Monday, with all three days having
severe weather potential

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

07z surface observations and upper air analysis shows a strong upper
low near the Great Lakes which is bringing cold air across the
northern plains and the leading edge of the colder air has moved to
near the highway 50 corridor in southwest Kansas.  850 mb
temperatures behind the front have fallen to around 12 (C) while
ahead of the front it is at 18 (C) so not the strongest baroclinic
zone at this point.  Winds are also diminishing as a surface high
builds in northern Kansas.  Upper level winds are generally west to
southwesterly with a trough moving into the desert southwest.

Today thunderstorm chances will primarily depend on the position of
the cold front and how much return flow of moisture can make it into
Kansas by the late afternoon.  HREF ensembles and short term models
have the setup with the frontal boundary ranging from near the
Kansas-Oklahoma border to closer to the Oklahoma-Texas border in the
panhandles.  A surface low looks to develop in northeast New Mexico
by the late afternoon as the upper level winds turn more
southwesterly and a 700 mb shortwave enters into the area.  By
around 21Z CAMs are showing isolated thunderstorm development
ranging from portions of northwest and north central Oklahoma to
south central Kansas by evening.  A few CAMs also have some isolated
storms developing near the low in southeast Colorado but given the
lack of moisture these thunderstorms don`t look to last long if they
do develop.  The best area of moisture in Kansas looks to be south
and east of Dodge City into the Red Hills and these areas will have
the best (albeit low chances of 20%) opportunity for thunderstorms.
With good lower level shear and marginal CAPE these thunderstorms
will primarily have a large hail threat with a lesser wind and
tornado threat.

Sunday the thunderstorm forecast is ripe with more uncertainty from
the previous night`s forecast and was also addressed in the previous
daytime forecast discussion. Depending on the thunderstorm
development Saturday night will determine where the stationary
frontal boundary or residual outflow boundaries will set up during
the night. Elsewhere the surface low in southeast Colorado will
continue to deepen as the approaching negative longwave trough
moves into the Rockies and with southwest winds resulting from the
counterclockwise surface flow a dryline should be setting up in far
western Kansas by morning.  Ahead of the warm front we should see
good moisture flow through the night in south central Kansas that
low stratus will develop with possibly some fog and/or drizzle for
areas along and east of highway 183 on Sunday morning.  The main
question in thunderstorm development is how long the low clouds hang
around through the day, how strong the cap will be ahead of the
dryline, and where the areas of sun will be long enough to erode the
cap. Latest trends in the HREF show the greatest probabilities of
weakening of the cap will be for areas south and east of Dodge City
and as you go north and east of Dodge City the clouds and cooler
temperatures stay locked in until mid to late afternoon.  This sets
the stage for supercell thunderstorm development to be moreso from
an Ashland to Larned line on east and several CAM solutions seem to
be latching onto this trend.  If any supercells develop they will
have a very favorable environment for large to giant hail (2-4
inches in diameter) as hodographs are curved in the low levels and
straight in the anvil layer.  Tornado threat increases after 00Z as
the 850 mb winds increase to 40-45 kts.  Storms should quickly exit
Dodge City`s CWA by 03Z and an ongoing severe weather setup
continues into central Kansas.


Monday the slow moving longwave trough and closed low enters into
the central and northern plains.  Most of the area should be dry
during the day and then late afternoon and evening thunderstorms
will develop in northwest and north central Kansas as the best area
of lift in the mid levels enters into the region with a strong cold
front also moving into southwest Kansas.  The severe threat on
Monday will be more tied into the storms being near the vicinity of
the upper low while the better moisture will be in central Kansas
as models have the higher dewpoints in these areas.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 513 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Winds will increase after 14Z for GCK, LBL, and DDC to sustained
15-20 kts and gusts to 25-30 kts between 14Z Saturday through
00Z Sunday. VFR flight category for most of the time period
however towards 09-12Z with strong moisture advection ahead of a
warm front we are expecting an area of low stratus clouds and
potentially fog for GCK, DDC, and HYS which will drop the
ceilings to MVFR to IFR flight category as ceilings drop to
400-1000 ft.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Tatro