302
FXUS63 KDDC 222325
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
625 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Minimal thunderstorm chances (20-30%) this evening.

- Better thunderstorm chances (50-70%) Monday.

- More seasonal temperatures expected Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

WV imagery indicates a slowly intensifying southwest flow aloft
prevailing across the Western High Plains as a closed upper low
shifts slowly east through southern Idaho into northwest Wyoming.
Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored
in extreme eastern Colorado.

Minimal thunderstorm chances (20-30%) return to far western Kansas
early in the period as the SREF indicates an increasingly difluent
southwest flow aloft spreading farther east through much of western
Kansas tonight as a closed upper low in the Northern Rockies begins
to rotate northeast into central Montana. Near the surface, prevailing
southerlies ahead of a near stationary dryline just west of the
Colorado line continues to reinforce a moist airmass with surface
dewpoints well up into the mid/upper 60s(F), supporting MLCAPE
values in excess of 1500 to 2000 J/kg. Steepening low/mid-level
lapse rates in conjunction with increasing instability will support
the potential for diurnally-driven isolated thunderstorm development
in vicinity of the dryline late afternoon into early evening, though
likely dependent on how much capping weakens. If any development
occurs, the best chance for storms would be in our far west where
the HREF suggests a 30-50% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding 0.25
of an inch across portions of southwest Kansas near the Colorado
line northeastward up into west central Kansas by late evening.
Severe potential does exist with more of a focus on damaging winds
with SPC mesoanalysis indicating DCAPE values pushing a little
above 1000 J/kg.

More significant thunderstorm chances (50-70%) arrive Monday with
medium range ensembles indicating an upper level trough of low
pressure swinging through the Northern Plains, ushering an attendant
cold front southeastward through northeast Colorado and southwest
Nebraska late tonight before stalling out generally from west central
Kansas northeastward up into southern Nebraska by early Monday
afternoon. More than ample moisture/instability present combined with
increased forcing associated with the boundary will likely trigger
thunderstorm development across portions of central Kansas down into
southwest Kansas by mid/late afternoon where the HREF suggests a
70-90% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding 0.25 of an inch by late
Monday evening.

Above normal temperatures are forecast tonight as prevailing
southerlies continue to reinforce a much warmer airmass across
western Kansas. With the HREF showing a 70-80% probability of
temperatures slipping below 70F near and along the Colorado line
to a 40-60% probability of dropping below 75F in central/south
central Kansas, look for lows generally in the 70s(F) with a few
upper 60s(F) possible out west. More seasonal temperatures are
likely Monday due to increased cloud cover and the aforementioned
cold front stalling out across the area. Afternoon highs may
struggle to climb out of the 80s(F) in west central Kansas where
the HREF indicates only a 10-30% probability of temperatures topping
85F to highs still reaching the lower 90s(F) in south central Kansas
where there is a >90% probability of pushing above 90F. Relatively
seasonal temperatures are expected to continue through mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals.
Thunderstorms are possible later this evening, mainly near GCK,
however confidence was too low to include in the TAFs.
Otherwise, strong southerly winds continue across southwest KS,
sustained in the 20-30 kt range gusting to 40-45 kts. These
winds will be gradually decreasing through the rest of the
evening and overnight period, becoming sustained in the 10-15 kt
range gusting to 20-25 kts by sunrise Monday morning.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...Springer