046
FXUS63 KDDC 121121
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
521 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm temperatures, by mid-November standards, forecast through
  at least Friday with widespread highs in the 70s each day.

- Fairly warm overnight lows in this pattern will also likely
  continue with sub-freezing temperatures not expected again
  until at least early next week.

- Late weekend upper level storm system looking less favorable
  for widespread precipitation across southwest Kansas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

The going forecast over the next few days is on track, and we will
see temperatures continue to be well above the mid-November
climatological normals with highs in the 70s and lows above
freezing. In fact, we will likely not see temperatures below 32
degrees again for quite awhile -- at least not until after the
weekend it appears. Winds will be fairly light today through Friday
ahead of the next front, which is slated for Saturday, but that will
not likely be all that strong of a front at all with the coldest air
remaining well northeast of our southwest Kansas region.

We continue to watch an approaching upper level low late in the
weekend, which will become cut off from the main branch of the polar
westerlies, so there remains continued run-to-run variability with
respect to precipitation chances, amounts, and timing for southwest
Kansas. The latest runs last night showed the upper low lifting out
farther north vs. previous runs as well as ejecting northeast a
little quicker, so once this system taps some low level gulf
moisture, widespread rainfall would most likely be fairly far east
of our area. For this reason, NBM POPs have decreased over the
weekend, and if these trends in the models continue, then a decrease
in POPs will likely continue.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 520 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Aviation weather will remain tranquil through this period with
widespread VFR flight category continuing. Light and variable
winds early this morning will become southerly around 12 knots
later in the day.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid