837
FXUS63 KDDC 160951
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
451 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and dry Today.

- Isolated thunderstorms are possible each afternoon and evening
  Sunday through Tuesday, but rainfall and coverage will be
  limited (15-25%).

- Seasonably hot August afternoons will continue through next
  week, while gradually becoming less hot through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 415 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

The synoptic scale is characterized by a broad upper high
pressure across the mid to lower Mississippi valley leaving
western Kansas in a broad hot airmass with southerly winds the
prevailing direction over the next few days. The hottest day of
the next 7 will be This Afternoon. Some of the eastern counties
will see moderate heat risk, and encroaching the major heat risk
as the overnight lows remain elevated in the mid 70s (Pratt,
Medicine Lodge, the Red Hills region. That said, afternoon
highs are not quite meeting a heat advisory threshold as the
NBMs 95th percentile only hits around 101 degrees this
afternoon. Convection chances return each evening Sunday though
about Wednesday. Sufficient CAPES/instability for convection
will exist for high terrain thunderstorms from Colorado to move
into the area, however the steering flow will be weak Sunday and
Monday evening, and improving by the mid week time period as
the upper pattern evolves as to a mid level jet streak rounds
the upper high across the the northern Rockies and northern High
Plains. Precipitation/TSRA probability is limited to around 20
percent Sunday and Monday while increasing a bit to near 40
percent in the southeast Tuesday overnight. At this time, Days
2 and 3 outlooks (Sunday and Monday) are limited to general
thunderstorm with predictability too low from day 4 and beyond.
Temperatures become not as hot through the rest of the
forecast. By mid week, the NBM forecasts lower high and lower
mins (low 90s and low to mid 60s), a trend that will persist in
the next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 450 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Another VFR forecast is anticipated for this TAF set. Light
south winds up to around 12 knots overnight will strengthen by
around 15z, increasing to 15-18 knots with gusts to around 22-24
knots through 00 UTC Sunday.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Russell
AVIATION...Russell