294
FXUS63 KDDC 191900
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
200 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered light rain showers are likely today, but will not
  amount to much QPF.

- More widespread and higher precipitation totals expected
  Monday as precipitation sweeps across the area early Monday
  morning through the evening.

- Dry, generally warm conditions Tuesday through the end of the
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Midday water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis
reveal a rather amplified synoptic pattern is in place over the
CONUS, with a strong, cut-off low centered near Phoenix, AZ,
and longwave ridging extending from the ArkLaTex region through
New England. Ahead of the southwestern upper low, scattered
light rain showers have developed south and west of Dodge City,
propagating north. Unfortunately for southwest KS, the cut-off
nature of the low will not foster much eastward progression,
resulting in little support for expansion of precipitation. This
is reflected in HREF probability of QPF > 0.1" at 30% or less
for all zones through this evening. Otherwise, scattered to
overcast clouds and modest southerly winds will support
afternoon highs ranging from the mid 60s near the KS/CO border
to the mid 70s in central KS.

Daytime Sunday, short range ensembles agree the cut-off low will
begin to open, allowing the wave to advance northeastward,
albeit slightly at first, as the mid-level jet streak rounds the
base of the trough and ejects into its eastern periphery. That
said, southwest KS will have to wait another day to reap the
benefits as Sunday will be largely dry with afternoon highs in
the 70s. Sunday evening into the overnight period, the upper
wave will finally make some appreciable progress, and eject onto
the central plains daytime Monday. Precipitation within the
system`s warm conveyor belt will sweep across southwest KS,
beginning around midnight Monday morning over our western zones
and ending over our eastern zones Monday evening. Residence time
within precipitation will not be ideal, generally in the 6-9
hours range, and therefore total accumulated QPF will not be
significant as the latest NBM indicates generally 0.3-0.7" of
QPF, with a few pockets of 0.8-0.9".

In the wake of the departing upper level trough on Tuesday,
medium range ensembles show strong warming at 850-mb, which will
translate to well-above normal temperatures Tuesday afternoon as
highs soar into the low to mid 80s. This warmth will be short-
lived however as an amplifying upper trough over the northeast
CONUS/eastern Canada sends a strong but dry cold front
southward through our area on Wednesday. Towards the end of the
week, ensemble guidance suggests weak longwave ridging will
build west of the Rockies, yielding increasing temperatures and
continued dry conditions into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Visible satellite and surface observations show scattered low-end
VFR clouds across all terminals at 17Z. Short range guidance
suggests lower cigs will stay west of the area, supporting VFR
through 18Z tomorrow. Otherwise, southerly winds in the 10-15 kt
range will continue through 00Z, followed by the typical
diurnal weakening to <10 kts overnight. Sunday morning around
14-15Z, winds will tick back up into the 10-15 kt range.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Springer
AVIATION...Springer