838
FXUS63 KDDC 081902
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
202 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions expected through early part of the weekend.

- Warming trend continues with unseasonably warm temperatures
  through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

WV imagery indicates a westerly flow aloft prevailing across the
Western High Plains. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low
pressure is slowly developing in eastern Colorado.

Tranquil conditions are likely through the remainder of the week as
the SREF shows ridging aloft continuing to amplify across the Western
High Plains. With the ridge axis situated across eastern Colorado/extreme
western Kansas and only a minimal amount of instability present within
an narrow axis of low level moisture return near and along the Colorado
line, precip chances will be extremely limited into early in the weekend.
Above normal temperatures are forecast tonight as low level southerlies
reinforce a slightly warmer air mass across the region. With the HREF
indicating a 70-90% probability of temperatures dropping below 60F
across much of southwest/central Kansas, look for lows generally down
into the 50s(F). Prevailing southerlies will further enhance warm
air advection into western Kansas Thursday, pushing H85 temperatures
well above 15C in central Kansas to a little above 20C near the
Colorado line. Under mostly sunny skies, expect widespread afternoon
highs in the lower/mid 80s(F), especially with the HREF pointing to
a 70-90% probability of temperatures exceeding 80F. Similar conditions
are likely Friday with highs actually nearing 90F in some locations
by Sunday as ridging aloft is slow to exit eastward through the
Central Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1108 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through
early Thursday. South-southeast winds around 10 to 20kt are expected
through late afternoon as a lee side trough of low pressure slowly
develops in eastern Colorado, then subside somewhat generally after
23-01Z with loss of daytime heating.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson