441
FXUS63 KDDC 012200
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Southwest Kansas will remain dry through Thursday afternoon.

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may impact some Fourth of
  July outdoor activities and fireworks Friday evening.

- Saturday is forecast to be the hottest day of this forecast
  period, in the mid to upper 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Over the next seven days, the weather in western Kansas will
be dictated by a dominant high-pressure ridge and a series of
shortwaves moving over this ridge this weekend into the first
part of next week. Initially, from Tuesday through Thursday, the
ridge`s direct influence will bring warm, dry, and sunny
conditions with temperatures soaring into the upper 80s to low
90s, accompanied by southerly winds that will become breezy
during the afternoon hours. Lows will generally be in the 60s. A
few isolated thunderstorms may form during peak heating along
the KS/OK border tomorrow afternoon, but chances remain low.

A significant shift is expected for late week through this
weekend (Thursday night through Monday) as the ridge gets
pushed initially southward then builds over the Desert Southwest
by next week. A series of upper level shortwave will move over
this ridge enhancing lift across the Plains. This will draw
unstable, moist air northward. This setup, combined with weak
upper-level disturbances, will increase storm chances across
Kansas. While a widespread severe outbreak is unlikely due to
weak wind shear, the high instability could fuel "pulse" severe
storms, posing localized threats of damaging downburst winds of
55-70 mph and large hail. In addition, temperatures increase
into the low to mid 90s this weekend into the first part of next
week. Lows will generally be in the 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 500 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Excellent flying weather will continue through this TAF period,
with VFR and varying amounts of cirrus. Scattered cumulus will
dissipate at sunset, but redevelop after 18z Wed. Light south
winds prevail through sunrise. After 18z Wed, south winds will
increase at all airports, gusting 25-30 kts.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Turner