422
FXUS63 KDDC 041914
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
214 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms will be scattered (20-50% chances) across central
and southwest Kansas late this afternoon into the evening hours

- Warm and humid weather will persist for the next week, with  high
temperatures near seasonal levels in the upper 80s to mid 90s.

- There are chances for isolated to scattered thunderstorms
  Sunday through Tuesday (10-40%), with better chances late
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

A summer pattern of unsettled weather is taking shape across the
western high plains, promising chances for thunderstorms over the
next several days, though with varying degrees of certainty. For
today, Independence Day, a weak shortwave trough is expected to
track across the central Rockies and into the Plains. This feature,
combined with increasing low-level moisture, will provide a focus
for isolated to scattered thunderstorms across western Kansas,
mainly during the late afternoon and evening hours. These storms may
form into a cluster across west central Kansasthis evening and
move southeast through the area. These storms are not expected
to be severe, but the strongest storms will be capable of
producing hail up to an inch and winds over 50 mph. Temperatures
will remain near seasonal averages, with highs generally in the
upper 80s to low 90s before falling into the mid- 60s
overnight.

The potential for showers and thunderstorms continues into Saturday,
though the forecast details become a bit more conditional. Any
storms from Friday night are expected to diminish or move out of the
area during the morning hours. This may be followed by a lull in the
activity before another weak disturbance approaches later in the
day. The redevelopment of storms on Saturday afternoon will largely
depend on the extent of morning cloud cover and how much the
atmosphere can destabilize. If sunshine is prevalent during the day,
scattered thunderstorms could once again develop, but overall
confidence in their strength and coverage remains low. Temperatures
are expected to be warmer, with highs climbing into the low 90s,
while overnight lows will again settle into the mid-60s.

Looking ahead to the remainder of the holiday weekend and into next
week, the forecast becomes considerably more uncertain. A broad
upper-level ridge is expected to build over the southwestern United
States, which will be the dominant synoptic feature. The weather for
western Kansas will be highly dependent on the subtle, smaller-scale
disturbances that will rotate around the periphery of this large
ridge. This type of pattern, often referred to as a "ring of fire,"
is notorious for being difficult to predict with a high degree of
accuracy several days in advance. Temperatures during this time
frame are expected to fluctuate with these small changes, with daily
highs generally ranging from the mid-80s to the low 90s and
overnight lows consistently in the 60s.

The day-to-day weather from Sunday through the middle of next week
will be a classic case of a meteorological "domino effect." The
timing and evolution of each small wave of energy will directly
influence the conditions for the following day`s potential for
storms. This includes the placement of any outflow boundaries from
prior convection, which can serve as a focus for new storm
development. As a result, while there will likely be daily chances
for thunderstorms, their exact timing and location are difficult to
pinpoint this far out.

Therefore, residents of western Kansas should anticipate a period of
generally unsettled weather from Sunday onward, but the specifics of
the daily forecast will likely change. It is not a situation where a
widespread, all-day rain is expected, but rather the potential for
scattered, pop-up afternoon and evening thunderstorms. The
confidence in whether any given day will be a "bullseye" for more
numerous storms is low.Lows will generally be in the 60s to low
70s.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1139 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

MVFR ceilings are expected to become VFR this afternoon around
the GCK and LBL terminals with continued cloudiness across the
other sites. A line of thunderstorms are expected to move
through the area this evening allowing for periodic IFR
conditions around the GCK, DDC, and HYS terminals. Winds will
generally be breezy and from a southerly direction today and
may become gusty around thunderstorms tonight. Winds then become
light and variable tomorrow morning.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42