682
FXUS63 KDDC 201033
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
533 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Three more days of highs in the 90s (through Friday) before a
  major pattern change. No precipitation forecast through late
  Friday.

- Widespread heavy rainfall potential late weekend into early
  next week, with current focus on Sunday Night for excessive
  rainfall well in excess of an inch over a large area of
  southwestern Kansas.

- Much cooler temperatures will grip much of the Great Plains
  early next week. Latest NBM highs for early next week upper
  60s to mid 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Quiet sensible weather will prevail across southwest Kansas today
and Thursday as the summer subtropical ridge out west will have far
reaching influence across the Central High Plains. The forecast
calls for three more days of highs in the 90s, through Friday,
before a rather dramatic pattern change occurs over the weekend
leading to cooler (and even much cooler!) and wetter pattern. Dry
weather will also prevail through Friday, although we will see POPs
return in the forecast Friday Night, mainly up north, as the main
polar front begins its push toward western Kansas.

Saturday will likely be a transition day toward the cooler, wetter
pattern. Global deterministic models and their respective ensemble
systems area really focusing in on Sunday Night into Monday being
the best chance for potential significant precipitation across
western Kansas as post-frontal moist upslope interacts with a fairly
active monsoon circulation over the southwestern CONUS and a rather
substantial 700mb frontogenetic zone extending northwest to
southeast across western Kansas. All the ingredients will likely be
in place for widespread rainfall, perhaps excessive rainfall leading
to potential flash flooding concerns Sunday Night.

The potential heavy rainfall pattern may be slow to move out of our
region as the overall right-entrance region of the upper level jet
will still be across the Central Plains with southwest Kansas still
in vicinity of the MSLP gradient (surface low to the southwest and
surface high to the northeast), keeping low level moisture
trajectories out of the southeast across the High Plains.
Eventually, the frontal zone will push far enough south to shift the
heavy rainfall axis to our south. When all is said and done, 72-hr
total precipitation late weekend into early next week could be quite
impressive. Latest NBM 72-hour QPF 50th percentile amounts show
widespread 1.00 to 1.75" ending Tuesday Night with 90th percentile
(1-in-10 high end chance) of 3 to 4 inches. Given the way this
summer has gone, high-end 3 to 4 inch totals over a 3-day period
will certainly be possible. As far as temperatures go, NBM highs in
the Sunday through Wednesday of next week period continue to drop
with each run. In fact, latest Tuesday NBM high is now in the upper
60s for much of western Kansas. Keep checking back for updates
concerning this heavy rainfall potential and much cooler
temperatures coming up.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 531 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Outside of some light patchy fog in vicinity of DDC and GCK
airports, good aviation weather is forecast for all four
airports DDC, GCK, LBL, and HYS through this TAF period today
and tonight. Winds will remain light with no major wind shift in
speed or direction. Large scale subsidence through the depth of
the troposphere should prevent organized shower and
thunderstorm activity through the period.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid