250
FXUS63 KDDC 182138
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
438 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- East/northeast winds in the wake of yesterday`s cold front
  will keep temperatures well below normal today with highs in
  the mid 70s to low 80s.

- Little change in the sensible weather for Friday with
  afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s.

- Much of the long term period appears likely to be cool with
  multiple opportunities for precipitation, with
  Wednesday/Thursday carrying the highest chance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Late morning visible satellite imagery shows widespread overcast
skies across southwest KS courtesy of east/northeast upslope flow in
the wake of yesterday`s cold front. Through the remainder of the
morning and afternoon, cloud cover will gradually erode from
northwest to southeast as a combination of cold advection and DNVA
ahead of an upper ridge west of the Rockies induces large-scale
subsidence. The end result will be afternoon temperatures well below
normal with highs ranging from the low 80s north/northwest to the
mid 70s south/southeast. Later this afternoon, some HREF members
suggest scattered elevated thunderstorms will build westward from
current activity in south-central KS into Barber County and move
southeast with time. Given sufficient MUCAPE and deep-layer shear,
this activity will pose an isolated large hail threat. Overnight,
partly cloudy skies and light winds will support Friday morning lows
dropping into the upper 50s.

Daytime Friday, short term ensembles agree the upper ridge out west
will slide eastward and dampen as a weak trough moves ashore over
the west coast. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis in CO will foster
south/southeast winds across our area, but with the lack of any
appreciable synoptic subsidence, afternoon temperatures will remain
largely unchanged from Thursday outside of locations near the KS/OK
border, with highs in the low to mid 80s.

Over the weekend into next week, medium range ensembles suggest
nearly zonal to west-northwest mid-level winds will persist across
the central Rockies as ridging slowly builds over the Desert
Southwest and northern Mexico. This synoptic pattern will support
near or below normal temperatures throughout the central plains as a
series of mid-level shortwave troughs send cold fronts equatorward.
These perturbations will also engender multiple opportunities for
precipitation, with ensemble meteograms indicating
Wednesday/Thursday as the best chance, although there is at least
some signal for precipitation nearly every day during the long term
period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 430 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Easterly winds at 10 knots or less early this evening will
shift to the southeast overnight overnight. These southeast
winds will then increase to around 15 knots between 15z and 18z
Friday as surface pressures fall along the lee of the Rockies
as an upper level trough approaches. Following a brief break in
cloud cover early tonight an area of VFR ceilings in the
5000-10000ft AGL will return by midnight. In the Garden City and
Liberal areas the ceilings will then lower into the 500-1500ft
AGL between 09z and 15z Friday as the low level flow becomes
southeast. A few showers (<20%) also can not be ruled out with
these low clouds early Friday morning. As the southerly winds
increase across southwest through 18z Friday these low clouds
will give way to VFR conditions and afternoon sunshine.


&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Springer
AVIATION...Burgert