957
FXUS63 KDDC 192200
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...Updated Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorms possible central Kansas Tuesday
  evening.

- Wet period expected starting this weekend, Saturday through
  Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

The scattered showers and storms that developed across the
northern forecast area this morning continued this afternoon
but the overall trend in the activity was downward. Looking into
later this afternoon, observations show very weak convergence
along the KS/OK border that could serve as a focus for storm
initiation along and near this boundary. 19z mesoanalysis showed
increasing MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg and limited to no capping in
southeast counties of Pratt and Barber. If there is a storm to
develop, it would mainly be in these areas and along the
Oklahoma border. With lacking 0-6 km bulk shear of <25 knots,
organized convection and severe is not anticipated. However,
with steep low-level lapse rates of 8-9 C/km and DCAPE on the
order of 1500 J/kg, environment could support gusty downburst
winds. SPC carries a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe
weather east of Route 283 today, but again, think the main focus
will be in far southeastern counties with the best chance at a
isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorm. Chances of
storms are low (around 20-25%). Any storms that do develop will
dissipate into the the later half of the evening.

Into the mid and later half of the week, expect the weather
across southwest Kansas to be relatively benign. High pressure
will continue to dominate the weather across southwest Kansas,
suppressing storm chances. High temperatures will hover around
the low to mid 90s with low temperatures in the low 60s to low
70s through Friday.

Friday and beyond, a significant pattern shift is expected.
Looking into the medium to long range of the forecast period,
ridging breaks down across the Plains, allowing for cooler
temperatures and higher chances at precipitation. A strong signal
exists within the ensembles (EPS, GEFS, and CMCE) of a more wet
pattern emerging into the late weekend and into next week,
indicating multiple rounds of storms are possible. Exact details
on the timing and evolution of convection is uncertain, but the
confidence is growing with this pattern change as it relates to
sensible weather impacts across southwest Kansas. The ensembles
indicate the potential for greater than 1" of rain across
southwest Kansas. For example, grand emsemble shows 50-70%
chance of 1" or greater through midweek next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 500 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Radar imagery at 22z depicted scattered thunderstorms over
central Kansas, east of a HYS-P28 line. These storms are
expected to remain east of the airports, but there is a minimal
probability of a shower or thunderstorm near HYS this evening.
Otherwise, excellent flying weather will continue through this
TAF period, with a continuation of VFR/SKC and light winds.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bennett
AVIATION...Turner