677
FXUS63 KDDC 031900
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
200 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The first round of precipitation is ongoing across southwest
  KS, but expected to diminish with time this afternoon and
  evening.

- Round two of precipitation will begin late tonight and
  continue through Friday morning, favoring roughly the
  southeastern half of our area.

- Round three of precipitation is expected on Saturday, with a
  potential switch to snow as this final event winds downs.

- Dry, warming trend is expected Sunday through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

KDDC radar observations at 19Z Thursday show scattered light to
moderate rain showers spread out over southwest KS amidst moist
upslope flow ahead of a large, upper level longwave trough over
the western CONUS. Short range guidance agrees this activity
will gradually diminish through the afternoon and evening as it
shifts northward while a few scattered sub-severe thunderstorms
develop near the KS/CO border closest to the mid-level cold
air. Given the expected downward trend in precipitation
intensity and roughly 0.1-0.15" of QPF having already fallen,
rain totals with this round will not be much higher, with only a
few additional hundredths. Otherwise, temperatures have
unsurprisingly struggled to increase early this afternoon under
the thick cloud canopy and precipitation, and most locations
have likely already reached or are close to their high today in
the 50s.

Tonight, the majority of precipitation should be clear of
southwest KS as per HREF members, leading to a brief lull in
activity across our area. However, a second round of
precipitation is progged to develop over the TX panhandle
around midnight, and advance northward into southwest and south-
central KS by early morning Friday. Latest HREF suggests the
bulk of the precipitation in this round will fall along and
south of a Liberal-Dodge City-Larned line as HREF probability
of QPF > 0.1" increases from 30-40% near the line to 80-90%
across Barber County. Similar to Thursday, this activity will
gradually weaken with time daytime Friday, with only isolated
showers by 20Z. Temperatures Friday afternoon will once again
stay below normal as thick cloud cover remains in place over the
central plains, with highs in the 50s.

The third and final round of precipitation is expected to
develop Friday night as the upper level longwave trough begins
to eject onto the High Plains. Medium range guidance currently
indicates light to moderate rain will overspread our
northwestern zones along the leading edge of a cold front
courtesy of an upper level shortwave trough traversing the far
northern plains/south-central Canada, and move southeast with
time. Sufficient cold air will spill equatorward in the wake of
this front, eventually converging on the precipitation
facilitating a switch to snow. Confidence in how much
precipitation remaining in southwest KS once this occurs is
low, and its entirely possible that this switch doesn`t happen
until all precipitation has left our area. As such, little to
no winter impacts are expected, although trends will be closely
monitored.

Once all is said and done, ECMWF EPS and GEFS ensemble means
show total precipitation will be in the 0.3-0.5" range, with
locally higher amounts wherever convective elements can develop.
Beyond Saturday, medium range ensembles are in agreement
suggesting synoptic-scale ridging will build over the western
CONUS through early next work-week. This pattern evolution
implies the central plains will see a dry, warming trend with no
notable weather impacts.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Radar observations show widespread light to moderate rain is
impacting southwest KS, bringing MVFR cigs and vis to DDC and
LBL at the moment, with GCK and HYS soon to join them. Short
range guidance indicates this activity will gradually diminish
over the next few hours as it moves northward. Once the
precipitation clears each terminal, cigs/vis will briefly rise
into low-end VFR. After 01-04Z tonight, continued moist upslope
flow will bring cigs down once again into MVFR/IFR, and this
will be accompanied by another round of light to moderate rain
shortly thereafter, bringing vis down into MVFR. These
conditions will continue until the last few hours of this TAF
cycle when precipitation finally begins to clear and flight
categories recover, but uncertainty surrounds how quickly this
will occur. Otherwise, breezy southeast winds will slowly weaken
with time, becoming aob 12kts by 02-04Z.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Springer
AVIATION...Springer