652
FXUS63 KDDC 182228
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
528 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight chance of storms this evening

- Storm chances again Tuesday

- Temperatures gradually cooling into next weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

20z surface observations showed an upslope flow regime taking
place across eastern Colorado and into northwestern Kansas
today. Some thunderstorms have already developed off the higher
terrain and northeastern Plains in Colorado. A boundary is also
draped just north of the forecast area. Given the location of
the best upslope and boundary placement, believe most of the
storm activity will be more north and west of the area. However,
cannot rule out an isolated storm into this evening and
overnight across northern counties with the boundary in close
proximity. With lacking upper-level support and flow, any storm
that does try and develop will likely struggle to organize.
Therefore, severe weather is not expected, but some sporadic
gusty winds are not out of the question.

Into Tuesday, weak front moves into Kansas and stalls out across
the CWA. This front will serve as a focal for thunderstorm
development along and ahead of it into the later afternoon and
evening hours. Again, with overall limited flow and upper-level
support, not anticipating widespread severe weather. A few gusty
winds cannot be entirely ruled out. CAMs develop storms during
the early parts of the afternoon and move storms north to south
across the CWA.

Once the front clears the area late Tuesday night, expecting
clearing and temperatures to fall around normal for mid August
standards (low 90s). Temperatures drop further late in the
forecast period where much of the forecast area looks to
struggle to get out of the 80s by Saturday and Sunday. As far as
precipitation chances are concerned, low to medium chances
(20-50%) this weekend and into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 528 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all TAF sites through the
period. A primarily south wind around 10 KTs to start the period
before multiple wind shifts will take place; mostly clear skies
should dominate. A weak thundershower can not be ruled out, across
all sites into the evening. HYS currently has weak convection
ongoing near the site and is expected to continue over the next
couple hours. Everywhere else the chances/uncertainty is resulting
in the exclusion from the TAF. Any storms that are present will be
weak and limited in coverage.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bennett
AVIATION...KBJ