520
FXUS63 KDDC 121012
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
512 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably hot Thursday with record or near record afternoon
  temperatures in the upper 90s to 100.

- Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions increasingly
  likely across mainly far southwest Kansas Thursday afternoon

- Increasing severe weather risk Saturday and/or Sunday
  afternoon and evening, although magnitude and areal coverage
  of severe weather risk is still highly uncertain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

A hot and dry weather pattern will prevail through the weekend, as
the large scale pattern will resemble something more like late June
instead of mid May. Western Kansas will be in between two jet stream
branches with rather weakish mid and upper level winds once the
current upper level ridge to the southwest breaks down. Anomalously
warm air across the southwestern quarter of the CONUS will expand
across the High Plains, but the expansion of the hot air mass will
be fighting with northern branch jet cold fronts. The northern
branch will be progressive, so these cold fronts this week will
really not be cold at all -- more so preventing multi-day record hot
temperatures. That said, Thursday continues to look to be the
hottest day, and 75th percentile NBM has a high of 100F at Dodge
City (a 1-in-4 chance of occurrence based on the NBM membership). The
Dodge City record high for May 14th of 97F falls very near the 50th
percentile of the NBM on the latest run (01Z 12 May).

We continue to watch for possible critical fire weather conditions
Thursday afternoon, mainly along and west of Highway 283 as global
models suggest very deep mixing up to around 600mb with mean winds
in that layer around 20 knots out of the west-southwest.
Temperatures soaring well into the mid to upper 90s and dewpoints
well down into the lower to mid 30s west of the dryline will lead to
RH values in the 10 to 15% range for much of southwest Kansas. NBM
POPs Thursday late afternoon and evening are generally 10 to 15%,
but these may need to be bumped up a bit as there is some indication
of very high-based convection along the dryline and/or any other
surface convergence zones as a surface low deepens across southwest
Kansas. The next weak cold front will push through southwest Kansas
some time Friday, but as mentioned above, this will not be a
"pattern changing" front as highs Friday will still likely be in the
upper 80s to lower 90s despite some northerly component surface
wind. Near the frontal zone across the Red Hills, some near-100F
highs appear likely Friday afternoon.  As mentioned in the previous
discussion, there will be an increased severe weather risk over the
weekend as some higher gulf dewpoints expand farther northwest into
southwest Kansas as the next shortwave trough moves out across the
Rockies with the larger scale pattern becoming more southwesterly
aloft. It is too early to determine how expansive any severe weather
risk will be Saturday and/or Sunday across Kansas (including our
southwest KS region), so keep checking back for updates on this
risk.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 507 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through
late evening. Southwesterly winds 10 to 20kt through mid/late
morning are forecast to turn north-northeasterly 15 to 25kt with
gusts up to 30kt generally after 15-17Z behind a cold front pushing
through southwest/central Kansas. Winds are then expected to subside
this evening as the cold front pushes farther southeast through
Oklahoma.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...JJohnson