036
FXUS63 KDDC 121627
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1127 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Fire Weather Watch is now in effect for areas west of a Wakeeney
to Garden City to Liberal line for Thursday.

- Very windy conditions will develop by late Friday across  portions
of southwest Kansas. There is a 50-60% chance for wind gusts in
excess of 45 mph on Friday afternoon behind a cold front.

- We will monitoring the potential for near critical to critical
  fire risk on Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Winds be light and variable this morning with northeast winds
expected in the afternoon. High level cloudiness will decrease in
coverage this morning with mostly clear skies by this afternoon.
Additional high level clouds will move back into the area tonight.
Highs today look to reach into the low 70s with lows tonight in the
30s with low 40s across south central Kansas.

The next storm system will move through the western United States
Thursday, into the Rockies Thursday night, and through the Plains
Friday. Skies will be mostly clear through Thursday night with dry
conditions. Winds will shift to the southwest as this system
approaches and increase in speed Thursday. RHs Thursday look to dip
into the teens and with the combination of strong winds fire weather
risk will become elevated to significant. As of now a Fire Weather
Watch is in effect for Thursday afternoon. The system then moves
through the area Friday with a cold front passage in the afternoon.
This will shift winds to the north with continued strong winds. The
current NBM run shows probabilities of exceeding 50 mph Friday
afternoon ranging from around 20 percent west of Highway 283 to
around 60 percent along the KS/CO border. It also shows around a 30
percent chance of exceeding 58 mph along the KS/CO border with less
than 10 to 20 percent west of highway 283. In addition to the winds,
wrap around clouds and showers will be possible Friday afternoon
then confined to northern Kansas Friday night. However, little
accumulation is expected at this time. Breezy northerly winds
continue Saturday with another chance of increased fire danger. Wind
speeds then decrease for the remainder of the forecast. We also head
back into a dry pattern Saturday on as an upper level ridge builds
over the Plains with high pressure being the dominate feature at the
surface. As for temperatures, highs look to reaching into the mid to
upper 70s Thursday with the NBM showing a 15 to 60 percent chance of
exceeding 80 degrees in some places. We then cool down Friday due to
the next system with highs ranging from around 60 degrees along the
KS/CO border with upper 60s to around 70 degrees across central
Kansas. Cooler weather continues Saturday with highs in the 50s with
a gradual warm up for the rest of the forecast with highs in the 60s
Sunday and 70s Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1126 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Northerly winds at 10 knots or less today will become light
early overnight as an area of low pressure deepens over
Oklahoma in response to a short wave trough crossing the
Southern Plains. These light winds overnight will become
southerly early Thursday as this first system moves east and
surface pressures fall along the lee of the Rockies in response
to our next, stronger approaching upper level trough/low. VFR
conditions can be expected over the next 24 hours.


&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM
MDT/ Thursday for KSZ030-043-044-061>063-074>076-084>086.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Burgert