648
FXUS63 KDDC 051000
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong storms possible tonight along a cold front

- Cooler Monday

- Continued showery Tuesday morning followed by even cooler temps

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Early morning surface observations show a front moving across Wyoming.
This front will eventually traverse across the state of Kansas later
tonight. In the meantime, downslope SSW flow ahead of the front will
result in a rather warm day today with highs in the upper 80s. Dewpoints
are currently running in the 50s and are expected to continue to
do so through the day. The combination of the heat and humidity will
result in CAPE values increasing to around 1000 J/kg along and ahead
of the front. Bulk shear is forecast to be around 40 kt. The combination
of the instability and shear will lead to the potential for strong
storms this evening along the boundary. The main threats are hail
up to 1" and 50 to 60 mph winds. Tornadoes are not expected today.
The best convergence along the boundary is forecast to be from Dodge
City northeast to Hays, Kansas. Have kept the highest pops in this
area to account for this forecast scenario. SPC does have us in a
marginal (risk level 1 out of 5) for a portion of the state, and
this looks to be on track with the latest 00Z NWP data.

The front will sag southward through the overnight hours tonight.
Pattern recognition and the fact that it is October would suggest
going with a cooler solution. Did sharpen up the temperature
gradient for Monday as a cooler solution would make more sense.
An upper level wave will eventually move across the greater region
Tuesday morning. An overrunning situation should develop with the
formation of showers across southwest Kansas Tuesday morning. Highs
Tuesday will continue to trend downward with values only in the 60s.
Normal highs this time of year are in the mid 70s. Lows will also
trend cooler with 40s likely Tuesday morning and then a mix of 40s
to 50s for Wednesday morning. Fall is here.

Long term models indicate shortwave ridging midweek. This would support
the notion of a drier forecast and moderating temperatures. Highs
by Thursday should be back to being above normal with values in the
80s for highs and 50s for lows. More the same weather pattern is
expected next weekend with a continue warm and dry weather pattern
prevailing.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 500 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Will continue with PROB30 and TS/CB for KDDC and KHYS. Storms will
develop along a cold front this evening in the 00Z-03Z period. Some
of the storms could contain gusty/strong outflow winds. However,
confidence is not high enough to add these winds in the TAFs for
now. Just the PROB30 this far out in time. TAFs can be adjusted and
amended as needed for the 18Z TAFs, if a better indication of a direct
impact is forecast in the models. Otherwise, a fropa is expected
late tonight. Breezy northeasterly winds are expected in its wake
around 15-20 kt. SSE/SSW winds around 20 kt with gusts over 30 kt
are expected today before the fropa. IFR cigs could eventually develop
post-frontal towards the end of the TAF pd.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden