496
FXUS63 KDDC 261925
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
225 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered strong thunderstorms developing this afternoon,
  focused across areas east of a Liberal-Dodge City-Larned
  line.

- SPC Marginal Risk (1 of 5) of severe for a damaging wind risk
  with only a very low probability of large hail (less than 5%
  prob. risk within 25 miles of a point).

- WPC Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall late this
  afternoon/evening focused mainly on south central Kansas,
  generally east of an Ashland-Kinsley-Great Bend line.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

A surface tough will be the focus for after moisture
convergence and convective initiation, with the axis likely
somewhere along a Liberal to just east of DDC and Rush county
line, based on the consensus of some of the CAMs. Around an inch
and one half layer precipitable water in that zone still keeps
PWATS around 150% of normal for heading into the last week of
June. Convection this afternoon will have similar
characteristics of the last 2 days, in that efficient rain rates
reducing visibility to a mile or two in +TSRA and dangerous CG
lightning. The window of opportunity for the convective threat
is between as early as 3 this afternoon through about 10 pm. A
water loaded storm producing a localized damaging wet macroburst
cant be ruled out late this afternoon. HREF 1-hr calibrated
probability of thunder ramps up to around 50-60% from around
Liberal to southern Gray and Ford counties and then
southeastward across the Red Hills region (Comanche co  Med
lodge  as well as Pratt) where enhanced surface dew points in
the mid to upper 60s and lower 70s reside.

The next few days, at least through Saturday have far less
opportunity for thunderstorm with the lack of a forcing
mechanism in place, and the SPC outlooks for days 2 and 3 are in
the general thunder category across the entire region.
Temperatures and as such heat risk will be on the rise through
Saturday where areas north of K-96 should reach the moderate
level (2 of 4) which corresponds to affecting individuals
sensitive to heat such as those without effective cooling, and
adequate hydration, especially those in some health systems and
heat sensitive industries. A light relief comes by Monday
through Wednesday as highs fall back into the 80s though that
period following fairly good precipitation probabilities for
Sunday night (30 to 50% for day 4).


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1133 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

A surface trough will be moving eastward this afternoon and
become the focus for surface based thunderstorm development.
This moderate CAPE, relatively high moisture content and low
shear environment will equate to the potential for storms
(about a 30- 50% chance and TEMPOs were used given the CAMS
spatio-temporal reflectivity fields) along that trough to be
efficient rain producers. High rain rates locally and briefly
can lower visibility to a mile or two - as well as creating
locally strong, up to 50 knot downbursts. Brief MVFR ceilings as
well with any CB, all mainly between 23z and 03z from Liberal
(LBL) to Dodge City (DDC). VFR conditions otherwise and south
winds under 10kt.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Russell
AVIATION...Russell