171
FXUS63 KDDC 091608
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1108 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Forecast remaining dry through this weekend

- Above normal temperatures

- Low rain chances into next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Fairly benign weather is anticipated throughout the rest of this
week and into this weekend as the main feature driving the
pattern will be a ridge. With the anticyclonic flow, centered in
western Texas, limited moisture and instability is expected
through this period, essentially shunting any precipitation
chances with it. The most notable sensible weather conditions
that will prevail will be the well above normal temperatures.
With 850 mb temperatures increasing to 20-25C, and even higher
into Sunday, expect surface temperatures to respond accordingly.
Forecast highs in the middle 80s to around 90 are expected. Each
day through the weekend, NBM has medium to high probabilities
(50-90%) of exceeding 85 degrees. Sunday looks to be the warmest
day of the stretch with everyone in the forecast area in the
upper 80s and a few locations potentially reaching 90.

Into next week, a bit of a pattern shift is expected. Troughing
that is currently over the Pacific moves into the West Coast
and Rockies by this weekend, deepening as it does so. This
trough will help capture and advect Pacific tropical moisture,
aided by a potential tropical system near Baja California, into
Arizona and New Mexico by this weekend. Models disagree on the
level of moisture that will remain by the time the trough nears,
with the GFS seemingly the most bullish. However, other globals
are painting more limited coverage of rainfall, but still
indicate some level of moisture into the area. For now, given
uncertainty of overall moisture into the region, NBM POPs are
low (20-30%), but favoring that Monday night into Tuesday
timeframe. 00z LREF indicated 20-35% chance of 24 hour rainfall
greater than 0.25" for that same time. This would indicate the
risk of heavy rainfall is low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1104 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through
early Friday. Southerly winds around 15 to 25kt with gusts up to
30kt are likely to persist through late afternoon due to a
strengthening surface low in southeast Colorado, then subside
this evening as the surface low begins to edge into extreme
southwest Kansas.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bennett
AVIATION...JJohnson