228
FXUS63 KDDC 140427
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1127 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Southwest Kansas will remain dry through Saturday.

- Warming trend will continue through this week, with afternoon
  temperatures near 100 Friday.

- Isolated thunderstorms are possible Sunday and Monday, but
  rainfall coverage will be limited.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Strong subsidence was in place across Kansas and the plains at
midday, with satellite imagery revealing a clear sky, and the
midlevel anticyclone centered near the Four Corners. Winds will
remain light for one more day, prevailing from the southeast.
The warming trend continues, with afternoon temperatures warming
back to near normal August readings in the lower 90s.

All models forecast strong warming Thursday, with rising
heights, thickness and 850 mb temperatures as the midlevel high
moves aggressively onto the plains. Afternoon temperatures will
go back above normal Thursday, with upper 90s common, and a few
locations touching 100. Another noticeable change in the
sensible weather will be an increase in south winds, responding
to stronger lee troughing over eastern Colorado. South winds of
20-30 mph will be common, and increased wind grids to the 90%ile
of the NBM. This was also close to 12z MAV guidance.

The heating trend will continue Friday, with global models and
ensemble means building a 595 dm upper high over Kansas by 7 pm.
Needless to say, pops will continue at 0% along with few if any
clouds. With an additional +4C of warming at 850 mb, many
locations will warm to 100-102 4 pm Friday. Areas that received
the heaviest rains from the recent MCSs will probably remain in
the 90s, and evapotranspiration from green vegetation will also
work to hold temperatures down a few degrees from the hottest
guidance. Lee troughing will continue to keep south/southeast
winds elevated and gusty in the afternoon, but the lack of a
downslope component will also keep the heat tamed down a few
degrees. Apparent temperatures/heat indices will be near heat
advisory criteria (105) in the southeast zones Friday afternoon,
and pending dewpoint trends, a heat advisory may be required.

This weekend, minor cooling is expected, as the midlevel ridge
centers east of SW KS over the Mississippi valley. Models show
minor relaxing of 500 mb heights and 850 mb temperatures,
enough to keep afternoon temperatures in the 90s, at least below
100 for most locales. South winds will remain elevated, but
again the lack of SWly downslope will help hold the heat in
check. NBM`s minor pops in the slight chance category (<25%) are
warranted Sunday and Monday, as the monsoonal moisture plume
edges out onto the plains. Rain chances and coverage do not look
impressive Sunday and Monday, but this will certainly be the
next chance of rain of any kind. Global models agree the summer
upper high heat dome retrogrades back to the Rockies next week,
and a hot and dry theme typical of late summer is expected.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

VFR conditions prevailing through Thursday night is expected.
Southerly winds do get gusty throughout the day Thursday around
25-30 knots at times. Otherwise, looking at mostly clear skies
for the rest of this morning, but scattered clouds building west
to east into later Thursday afternoon and evening.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Bennett