088
FXUS63 KDDC 050426
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1126 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures continue today, with highs
  around 100 degrees.

- Showers and weak thunderstorms are possible across our western
  zones tomorrow and expected to be sub-severe.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for the Highway 183 corridor and
  eastward until 8 PM Sunday.

- After Saturday, a hot and dry pattern is expected to continue
  until at least Tuesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

An upper-level high continues to take up nearly the CONUS to make up
the most of the synoptic pattern. The only other notable aspect
continues to be a very deep low pressure system over the Pacific
Northwest. Nearer to the surface, weak low pressure continues to
persist across SW Kansas. Weak storms have festered for the last few
hours with sub-severe storms as forecast. In regards to ongoing
headlines, a Heat Advisory remains in effect for the Highway 183
corridor and eastward until 8 PM Sunday.

Saturday will continue the pattern of very hot temperatures and
storm potential out west. Highs are forecast around 100 degrees with
apparent temperatures approaching 105 degrees in the eastern zones.
The focus on the forecast tomorrow is the storm chances. It is
expected to represent Friday`s storms very similarly. Around 0Z,
storms are expected to develop and move out of Colorado. A marginal
risk is in effect for the far northwest counties. It is expected
that most, if not all of the storms, remain sub-severe similar to
Friday. Forecast NAM soundings have held firm progging 1200 J/kg
CAPE, 20 KTs shear, and low level lapse rates of 10 C/km. It seems
unlikely that storms will be able to organize and mature to become
severe, but a few severe winds gusts remain possible.

Sunday through Tuesday will keep the heat, but with a near zero
chance for storms (<5% via ensembles). The days are forecast to be a
degree or two cooler than Friday/Saturday, but highs are still
forecast in the upper 90s and tangibly the difference won`t be
noticed.

Tuesday night/Wednesday morning will be the next good chance for
precipitation. That said, ensembles have been trending drier and
farther northwest, now only covering the northwest portion of the
CWA up to around a 25% chance for storms. Early indication is that
these storms will remain sub-severe, but that is subject to change.
After Tuesday, the pattern of hot highs and small storm chances out
west continues through the remainder of the forecast period. Fire
weather conditions may remain elevated with a strong south wind,
especially sunday, of up to 20 mph and gusts up to 25-30. However,
relative humidities will remain well above 20% and stay away from
any fire weather headline criteria. With that in mind, traditional
fire weather precautions are always advised.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

VFR conditions are forecast for all TAF sites through the TAF
period. Storms are currently persisting near LBL and GCK and may
temporarily lower flight conditions. GCK is forecast to remain
clear, while LBL has the PROB30 group. By 9Z, all storms are
expected to dissipate. After the storms have dissipated, skies will
clear and winds out of the south will return at around 10 KTs.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ031-046-065-066-
079>081-089-090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...KBJ