667
FXUS63 KDDC 102138
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
438 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The heatwave will continue through Wednesday, with intense
  heat expected each afternoon. Afternoon temperatures of 100 to
  110 will remain common. The risk of heat related illness and
  dehydration will continue each afternoon.

- A pattern change is expected the second half of this week,
  with temperatures returning close to August normals by this
  weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Afternoon temperatures continue to well exceed NBM guidance,
and updated to increase highs this afternoon and again Tuesday.
Air temperatures of 105-108 will be common both afternoons.
Dewpoints will remain in the 40s and 50s during the peak heating
hours, with a heat index less than the air temperature,
especially western zones Tuesday. East of US 283, heat indices
of 105-108 support yet another heat advisory Tuesday afternoon,
which matches with WFO Norman/Wichita heat headlines.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

WV imagery indicates a west-northwest flow aloft prevailing
across the Western High Plains downstream of a flattening ridge
axis situated across the Four Corners Region. Near the surface,
an area of low pressure remains anchored in southeast Colorado.

Relatively dry conditions are likely for much of the area early
in the period as the SREF shows an upper level high continuing
to dominate the Four Corners Region through late Tuesday before
finally dislodging eastward into the Central Plains mid-week.
However, a similar set up from yesterday still exists with
isolated thunderstorms likely developing across the high plains
of eastern Colorado late afternoon as yet another upper level
shortwave ejects out of the northern Colorado Rockies.
Sufficient mid-level moisture/instability present combined with
steepening mid-level lapse rates will set the stage for
thunderstorm development as ejecting H5 vort maxima interact
with a trough axis/stalled boundary in northeast Colorado. A few
stray storms drifting into west central and extreme southwest
Kansas cannot be ruled out later this evening as suggested by
some CAMs. After a mainly dry Tuesday, very minimal thunderstorm
chances (20%) return to west central/extreme southwest Kansas
late Wednesday as an upper level shortwave trough climbs
northeast across the high plains of eastern Colorado on the
backside of a ridge axis departing through the Central Plains.

Another warm night is expected tonight as prevailing southerlies
continue to reinforce a warmer air mass across southwest/central
Kansas. With the HREF showing a widespread 70-90% probability of
temperatures dropping below 80F, look for lows mainly down into
the 70s(F). Well above normal temperatures are likely Tuesday
and Wednesday with ridging aloft transitioning slowly east
through the region and southerlies prevailing across
southwest/central Kansas, supporting H85 temperatures a little
above 30C in central Kansas to near 35C near the Colorado line.
Expect afternoon highs up around to a little above 100F both
days with the HREF painting a widespread 70- 90% probability of
temperatures exceeding 100F.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 438 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Expect VFR/SKC to continue through this TAF period, with
occasional cirrus. Strong south to southwest winds gusting
near 30 kts at 2130z Mon will back southerly after sunset,
and diminish somewhat. Light SW winds will prevail after
06z Tue through sunrise. After 15z Tue, elevated southwest
winds will resume once again at all airports, gusting
25-30 kts.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ030-031-045-
046-064>066-078>081-088>090.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Turner
DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...Turner
KEY MESSAGES...Turner