326
FXUS63 KDDC 200653
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
153 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread measurable rainfall along and east of a Liberal to
  Hays line Today

- Dry and much warmer start off the next work week

- Active weather pattern returns towards mid to late week with rain
and storms

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 148 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

A center of low pressure is noted on the GOES-19 channels 9 and
10 water vapor over central New Mexico late Saturday night.
Ahead of this, a broad 850 mb moisture transport fetch from
central Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas.

About a 5 degrees differences areal wise between 25th and 75th
percentiles this afternoon for highs  i.e NBM mean temps in the
eastern counties in the mid 50s with a range of outcomes from
53 to 60. Farther west Liberal should reach around 67 but
anywhere between 64 and 69 is reasonable. The axis of
appreciable rainfall is in these eastern zones as well. The HREF
ramps up the 0.1 + per hour rates into the Stafford to Pratt
Greensburg and the Red Hills Region by around 6 am, with an
initial burst of warm advection/frontogenesis before the main
slug of rain from more broad 0.1-0.25/hr rates spread across
the southeast counties after 10 am. The ejecting low pressure
will clear the area by early afternoon (2-3 pm). HREF
probability matched means suggest from 0.75 to 1.5 inches
anywhere east of a Minneola to Kinsley line. A really sharp
gradient exists west of here, as points like Liberal, Garden
City and Wakeeney are only looking at a few hundredths of an
inch of forecast rainfall. The latest NBM also included a slight
chances (20%)/Isolated for thunderstorms over a limited area
covering Comanche Pratt Kiowa and Barber counties this morning.

Another relatively cold night back into the 30s is expected,
however at this points, the thresholds wont be crossed for
seasonal frost freeze headlines ( April 24th for areas west of a
Hays to Elkhart Line) and most of the area eastern zones are
forecast for lows 36 degrees and up to 40 degrees.


Much warmer temperatures Monday though Thursday with
appreciable chances for rain and thunderstorms (north of 50 %)
returning by Wednesday and lingering through Thursday night as
upper split flow setup a subtropical jet spreading across the
northern Mexico and the southwest US while a polar airmass
descend the northern Rockies pushing a front into the high
plains by 120 hours.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Stratus and rain is anticipated to overspread the southeast
half of the area overnight into much of the day on Sunday. Light
northerly/northeasterly surface winds will prevail everywhere
as gusts to return to around 20 knots after 15z. Differences
arise in the the expectations of where the IFR/LIFR stratus
might be. Probabilities for sub 1000 ft ceilings area quite low
(10%) at Liberal and Garden City, while ramping up to 70 % for a
few hours between 13z and 19z at Hays and Dodge City. For DDC
and HYS, come reduction I VSBY into the MVFR category (3-5sm) is
likely (70% chance) however, this warm advection pattern does
not show any signal for the dense form of fog.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Russell
AVIATION...Russell