954
FXUS63 KDDC 230502
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1102 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A warming trend to well above seasonal averages can be
  expected, with highs in the 60s for Sunday and lower to
  perhaps mid 70s for Monday and Tuesday.

- A cold front by Tuesday night will bring temperatures down a
  little closer to climatological averages starting Wednesday.

- Dry weather is expected for the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

The models and their ensemble suites are in excellent agreement
over the next week with the large scale pattern. West
northwesterly mid level flow will persist for the next few days.
This will encourage surface winds to have a downslope component.
In this dry regime, expect temperatures to be on the warm side
of guidance, with 60s for highs Sunday and lower to mid 70s for
Monday and Tuesday, representing the 75 to 90th percentile.

A fast moving upper level trough will traverse the northern
plains Tuesday, helping to push a dry cold front through Kansas
Tuesday night. Part of this upper trough is advertised to break
off from the northern stream and close off over the southern
Rockies and southern high plains Wednesday while slowly
weakening. In the absence of arctic air, high temperatures will
be cooler, but still above climatological averages, with highs
in the 50s and 60s. Moisture will be lacking so that precipitation
with this system will not occur.

The ensemble means of the ENS and GEPS indicate upper level
ridging over the Rockies by next Friday, resulting in low to mid
level downslope flow and highs returning to near 70. This
pattern is not conductive to precipitation, of course. The
grand ensemble is dry across western Kansas through next
Saturday, with very low probabilities of even .01" of
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1111 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

VFR is expected through TAF pd. Winds will be pretty light through
the TAF cycle. Generally speaking, a light southwest to northwest
wind with magnitudes less than 12 kt.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...Sugden