295
FXUS63 KDDC 041036
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
536 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There are moderate to high chances (50-70%) for thunderstorms
  tonight into early Thursday.

- Severe thunderstorms with very large hail are a possibility
  (SPC shows a slight risk) Thursday evening across far
  southwest Kansas.

- There are small chances for thunderstorms Friday through the
  weekend, with highest chances during the evenings and
  overnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Low level instability will be confined to the front range today
given a stable air mass across southwest Kansas. With strong
mid level flow across the Rockies, any storms that form to our
west could move into western Kansas in a weakened state tonight,
especially given the relatively cool mid level temperatures.
Opted to maintain moderate to high rain chances (50-80%) for
tonight, although total amounts shouldn`t be all that heavy
given the weak inflow from the south and given that this will be
driven by mid level instability and not low level.

On Thursday, return south flow will develop during the day with
strong destabilization across the western high plains. With
afternoon heating, thunderstorms will develop to the southwest
and west of Kansas and propagate eastward. There is a slight
risk of severe t-storms for the southern counties in southwest
Kansas for Thursday evening. Given the strong vertical wind
shear (0-6 km bulk shear values at least 50 kts), this looks on
track. However, there is a question about how far east the high-
end severe weather gets given that much of southwest Kansas will
be socked in with low cloud all day given the moisture return
into a rain cooled air mass. Therefore, the most favorable area
for very large hail and possibly a tornado is across extreme
southwestern Kansas around Johnson, Elkhart and Hugoton. The
storms may form a cold pool and sweep eastward and southeastward
over the southern tier of counties Thursday night so that the
highest rain chances are along the Oklahoma state line. Decided
to lower maximum temperatures for Thursday into the upper 60s
for Dodge City and Garden City, with upper 70s at Elkhart.

By Friday the warm sector will be suppressed south of Kansas,
with surface based CAPE values 1000 j/kg or less across far
western Kansas into Colorado. But given the strong mid level
winds for this time of year, storms forming over the high
country of Colorado would move quickly into western Kansas,
possibly allowing for a hail and wind threat later in the
evening. This could evolve into a larger cluster and sweep
southeastward, clipping far southwest Kansas overnight.

By Saturday the mid level flow becomes west-northwesterly and
residual moisture from all the previous rain will still be in
place. The ensembles of the GEPS and ENS show very low chances
for measurable rain (10-30%). However, given that it is June
and given the moisture, moderate instability and mid level flow
across the Rockies, simple pattern recognition argues for at
least small chances for storms. By Sunday a deep upper level
trough will be situated across the Midwest, with northwest mid
level flow across western Kansas. Given a weak capping inversion
and continued low level moisture, storms are still a
possibility, even though the ensemble means and probabilities
are mainly dry. And given the time of year, any storm that
develops in the presence of moderate instability and shear has
the chance of being at least marginally severe.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 528 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Light winds at 10 kts or less will prevail through the period
given a weak pressure gradient. Showers are expected late this
evening and overnight. Confidence in thunder is not high enough
given the weak instability expected. The showers are not
expected to reduce visibilities below 5 or 6 miles.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...Finch