306
FXUS63 KDDC 061831
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1231 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warning in effect for far southwest Kansas

- Marginal (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather this afternoon

- Brief cool down; warming back up into next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1230 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Today`s weather situation features critical fire weather and a
marginal severe weather risk. See Fire Weather Section for
details on the critical fire weather conditions.

Current observations show a cold front cutting through the
forecast area from the northwest, oriented from northeast to
southwest, with a dryline right along the KS/OK border. These
features are expected to play a roll in the development of
thunderstorms, some severe, mid to late afternoon. The greatest
chance for any thunderstorm activity is along the Route 183
corridor and east. The cold front across the northern portions
of the CWA is expected to be the main focus for thunderstorms
develop. Effective bulk shear near and along the front is 40-50
knots, ample to support severe weather potential. However, shear
flow is parallel to this boundary, meaning any storms that do
happen to develop will only be able to be isolated briefly until
congealing more into a line or clusters. With MLCAPE around
1,000 J/kg and the aforementioned shear, an isolated supercell
or multicell cluster would be able to produce severe wind gusts
up to 60-70 mph and/or hail to 2" in diameter. The second area
that bears watching, albeit lower chances of having thunderstorm
develop, will be along the dryline across south- central
Kansas. Nearly all CAMs struggle to develop much until it is
east of the forecast area. Chances are lower along the dryline
due to weaker convergence along it. However, still added some
storm and POP chances in the southeast counties to account for
the off chance something is to develop. Again, hazards would be
damaging winds 60-70 mph and large hail to 2" in diameter. The
tornado risk is quite low given better low-level SRH is
displaced much farther east of the forecast area, but will not
entirely rule it out should a storm be able to develop along the
dryline with any storm that tries to turn more toward the
right. The overall limiting factor for all areas is the
residency time of storms in the CWA as the boundaries are
expected to clear the area by around 6-7 PM, ending the severe
risk.

After this afternoon, northwesterly breezy conditions behind
the cold front will persist through the overnight hours and into
Saturday morning. This flow will usher in cooler air, with highs
in the upper 50s for most. Though this cooler weather will be
short lived as temperatures will quickly rise back into the 70s
and low 80s by Sunday and into the start of next week. This warm
up will be the result of westerly downslope flow as mid-level
winds becomes more zonal.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1115 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

VFR conditions will primarily prevail across the area through
the period. The forecast will consist mainly of breezy
conditions. The front will be through all TAF sites by the
start of the period, leaving breezy northwesterly winds. Expect
generally 15-20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots at times. With
the front east of the sites, any precipitation along the front
should remain east, so will leave out any mention at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1200 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

An eastward moving dryline across the KS/OK border this
afternoon is leaving behind gusty winds and low relative
humidity values. Therefore, a Red Flag Warning is in effect for
portions of southwest Kansas. Humidity levels will fall as low
as 10-15% with southwest winds 15-25, gusting to 35 mph. Fires
could catch, spread rapidly, and be difficult to contain in
such conditions. Humidity levels climb after 7 PM.

Dry conditions reemerge into Saturday, however weaker winds are
likely to preclude a higher fire weather risk.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for KSZ084>086.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bennett
AVIATION...Bennett
FIRE WEATHER...Bennett