080
FXUS63 KDDC 121153
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
553 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter storm still on track with no change in headlines
  (Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory counties
  unchanged). Ending time on the Winter Storm headlines moved
  forward in time to noon.


- Minor to moderate impacts remain likely from widespread 2 to
  5" snowfall. Greater than 5" snowfall most likely from Highway
  96 to I-70 corridor.

- Cold Weather Advisory issued from late this evening though 9
  AM Thursday morning for about 1/2 of the area (northwest).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025


Area in the middle of a winter weather/snow episode with abroad
area of snow now over the northeast sections of the forecast
area. Mesoanalysis showed a broad slug of 850-700 mb warm
advection in the PVA region of the advancing wave. And a weak
warm frontogenesis signal oriented roughly from around the
Ulysses/Elkhart area northeast toward the Dodge City to Larned
areas.

As of 1 am 2 inches was already reported at Scott City, and the
better banding area looks to be just to the south. The HRRR
snowfall trends following this weak frontogenesis signal. With
the movement of the trough/forcing and the signals from the
HRRR, the greater snow rates, a broad area of 1-1.5 in/hr from
Finney into Ness, Lane, Rush, Trego, Ellis counties should be
exiting by 9-10z (4-5am), ending the heavier accums for this
episode. The latest HREF probability matched mean for snow
totals remain in basically little deviation from the previous
forecasts. 3 inches at both Dighton and Scott City as of 2:30
this morning, are outside of the HRRRs heavier swath of snow and
we might not get any of highest reports until the daytime hours
Today. Finally, the ending time on the winter weather headlines
were moved up 6 hours to noon as the impactful precipitation
will be ended by mid to late morning for the entire forecast
area.

Winds overnight will not be very strong, becoming southwest
around 4-8 knots. But still combining with sub zero temperatures
creating apparent temperatures to around 15 below zero or
colder over about the northeast half of the DDC forecast area.
Have hoisted a cold weather advisory for these impact from
midnight until 9 am Thursday morning.

Winds for Friday were increased to the 75th percentile values
from then NBM as attention becomes focused on models and EFI
indicating anomalously strong gradient winds from a strong low.
We should see a marked warmup as well on Friday especially in
the west where the 75th NBM would be pushing toward 70 degrees
along the Colorado state line.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 545 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Light snow will continue with visibilities as low as 3-4 miles
in most instances for a few hours this morning, however the
stronger forcing for higher rates is well past the area for this
winter weather episode. Stratus in the MVFR category will
persistthrough the morning as well before better subsidence
develops and scatters out the cloud sin the afternoon. HREF
ceilings below 3000ft probabilities linger fairly high (60-80%)
up around HYS in the midday to afternoon period.



&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until noon CST today for KSZ030-031-
043>046.
Cold Weather Advisory from midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight to
9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ Thursday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-
074>079-084>086.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for
KSZ061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Russell
AVIATION...Russell