631
FXUS63 KDDC 161038
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
538 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly continued very warm to hot temperatures and dry

- However, a slight chance of storms is possible Friday evening

- Hot end of the weekend into into next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

A 597 decameter anticyclone was located across the upper midwest
this evening. This feature will prevail in the grand scheme of things,
although will shift position over the next several days. The net
result is still the same quiet weather pattern with very warm to
hot highs, mild lows, and generally very dry conditions. Otherwise,
highs today will be near normal with value ranging from the upper
80s to the lower 90s. Lows tonight will be in a mix of 60s to 70s.

There might be a subtle weakness in the mid level ridge Friday evening.
This could end with the low chance of storms across south-central
Kansas in the evening. The NBM now has chance pops for mainly just
Medicine Lodge to account for this low probability of storms. The
rest of the FA will see dry weather conditions and no storms. Highs
Friday will be a few degrees warmer with values solidly just in the
90s and with continued mild lows of 60s to 70s.

The 500 hPa ridge will move itself directly over the region towards
the end of the weekend and into the beginning of next week. This
would support the notion of a dry forecast with hot highs (low 100s
likely peaking for a few locations during this period). This echoes
with increasing probabilities from the Grand Ensemble of highs greater
than 100F Sunday through Tuesday. Lows will also trend warmer with
values only bottoming out in the 70s instead of the 60s.

The mid level ridge may move south far enough that monsoonal moisture
starts to advect around the end of of it by the middle portion of
the next business week. This may allow for the potential of isolated
storm development. Coverage per the global models and the ensembles
is looking to remain pretty sparse. The best chance of storms should
be confined to the western zones tied with with upslope flow/convection
forming off the higher terrain of Colorado and drifting east.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 537 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

An upper level ridge and surface high pressure will lead to VFR
flight category for all terminals during the time period. Winds
will pick up in the afternoon to around 12 kts with gusts up to
20 kts.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...Tatro