221
FXUS63 KDDC 122342
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
642 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and windy Friday, with above normal afternoon temperatures
  in the 90s.

- Continued warm and windy Saturday.

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday night into
  Sunday, with strong storms and locally heavy rain possible.
  The threat for heavy rain and strong storms is highest west of
  US 283.

- Slightly cooler Sunday, followed by afternoon temperatures
  typical of late summer, in the 80s, next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025

Midday satellite imagery depicted only limited scattered cirrus
across Kansas, with a strong midlevel ridge axis across the
southern plains, and a strong closed cyclone over Nevada.
Surface observations showed southwest winds increasing across
SW KS, a trend that will continue through the afternoon. The
SWly downslope component ensures a hot afternoon with
temperatures of 90-95 common at 4 pm. Southwest winds will gust
to near 40 mph through 7 pm, especially northwest of Dodge City.

South winds will remain elevated to breezy tonight in response
to a modest low level jet. A well mixed boundary layer will
deter radiational cooling, such that sunrise Saturday
temperatures will be about 10 degrees above normal, in the mid
to upper 60s.

Model guidance weakens the ridge axis over the plains
significantly Saturday, in response to the strong Great Basin
trough reaching the Four Corners by 7 pm Saturday. Sensible
weather in SW KS will change little, with another windy warm
afternoon. Expect afternoon temperatures to cool several
degrees, as heights/thicknesses decrease and 850 mb temperatures
show a net cooling of about -4C, with upper 80s common at 4 pm.
South winds will remain strong, averaging 20-30 mph. For both
Friday and Saturday, wind grids are just shy of the 90%ile of
the NBM, and near the 12z MAV guidance.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across Colorado
and New Mexico Saturday afternoon, as forcing for ascent
improves over the higher terrain, ahead of the approaching
trough. To varying degrees, global models, NAM and assorted CAMs
such as the 12z ARW, spread thunderstorms into western zones
Saturday evening (mainly west of US 83). Across these western
zones, some storms may be marginally severe, with 5% severe
wind/hail probability from SPC. Early thinking is storms will
take on a rather linear mode ahead of the progressive trough and
associated cold front, with wind gusts of 50-60 mph being the
primary risk Saturday evening. While bulk shear will be
substantial ahead of the trough, and moisture will be plentiful
with high PW, instability will be modest (due in part to
considerable mid/high cloud cover ahead of trough axis). Heavy
rainfall is expected, but with the progressive nature of the
trough, the band of rain/storms should have enough easterly
momentum to minimize flooding concerns at any one location. NBM
pops have increased to the likely category Saturday night/early
Sunday, as models grasp the strong forcing for ascent. The
midlevel trough axis is forecast to be near I-25 7 am Sunday, at
which time showers and thunderstorms are expected to be
crossing the central zones of the DDC CWA. Pops and coverage
will trend to the northeast zones, and end from west to east, as
the trough axis arrives Sunday afternoon. Subsidence and
decreasing clouds are expected daylight Sunday, however colder
midlevel temps in the passing trough will promote modest
instability and perhaps a few more showers/storms Sunday
afternoon.

With the expected trough and frontal passage Sunday being of
Pacific origin, only modest cooling is expected Sunday, with
afternoon temperatures reduced to the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Noticed MOS guidance is trending cooler to the upper 70s, but
with decreasing clouds and mid September sun in the afternoon,
kept forecast in the lower 80s.

Monday through Friday next week, temperatures are expected to
remain near normal, with no significant air mass exchanges
expected. After a dry Monday, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to return with the next trough
passage about midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 639 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025

Warm southerly winds will continue this TAF period, and since
southwest Kansas will remain well into the warm sector ahead of
a deep trough, the probability of flight category VFR is near
100 percent. An axis of deep moisture with the upper level
trough approaching toward the end of this TAF period will result
in increased thunderstorm chances, mainly just after the end of
this TAF period (Saturday night into Sunday morning).

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Umscheid