263
FXUS63 KDDC 030704
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
204 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances (30-50%) again today.

- Temperatures remain a little below seasonal average today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

WV imagery indicates a westerly flow aloft prevailing across the
Western High Plains. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low
pressure remains anchored in eastern Colorado.

Based on radar trends and CAMs, a line of thunderstorms moving
southeast through southwest Kansas early this morning, is projected
to push farther southeast into northern Oklahoma and south central
Kansas by daybreak. Thunderstorm chances (30-50%) pick back up late
today as the SREF indicates another upper level shortwave perturbation
sliding southeast through the Western High Plains off of a slowly
amplifying upper level ridge extending northward across the Four
Corners Region up into the Rockies of southwest Wyoming. Near the
surface, prevailing southeasterly upslope flow will continue to
reinforce increased moisture across the area with surface dewpoints
in the 60s(F), providing ample instability. With that, thunderstorm
development will be possible late afternoon/early evening as H5 vort
maxima transition southeast through the high plains of western
Kansas, interacting with a widespread field of steepening low/mid-
level lapse rates. The best chance for storms is expected to be
along and east of a Scott City to Liberal line where the HREF shows
a 30-40% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding 0.25 of an inch by late
evening.

Temperatures are likely to remain a little below normal today with
clouds slow to scatter out west to east while a southeasterly upslope
flow prevails across much of the area. The HREF does paint a fairly
widespread 70-90% probability of afternoon highs topping 80F, with
the warmest temperatures out west near the Colorado line where more
sunshine is expected. Similar temperatures are forecast Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms tracking southeast
through extreme southwest Kansas will continue to push through
the remainder of southwest Kansas into central/south central
Kansas and northern Oklahoma by daybreak Sunday, potentially
affecting the vicinity of all TAF sites. Otherwise, expect
primarily VFR conditions to take hold mid/late Sunday morning.
Other than variable strong outflow winds from passing
thunderstorms overnight, south-southeast winds around 10 to
20kt with gusts up to 25kt are forecast to persist through much
of the period as a lee side trough of low pressure remains
anchored in extreme southeast Colorado.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson