903
FXUS63 KDDC 181629
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1129 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe storms clipping our
  northwest areas, generally north of a Syracuse to Scott City
  to WaKeeney line.

- Warmest days of the period today and Tuesday (highs mid to
  upper 90s) before a slight pull back in temperatures mid to
  late workweek

- A more robust pattern change toward wetter, cooler looking
  increasingly likely roughly 23-27 August time frame.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

The overnight satellite imagery and objective analysis fields showed
a broad summer subtropical ridge axis extending across the Southern
Plains toward the mid-Mississippi Valley. North of the ridge axis
was broad west-southwest flow aloft with an upper level jet core
from southern California across Utah into Wyoming. This jet core
will move across northern Colorado, southern Wyoming into western
Nebraska, supporting increased upward vertical motion across the
High Plains of northeastern Colorado into western Nebraska. This
region to our north will be the best area for a late night mesoscale
convective system (MCS) later on tonight. Any other storms farther
south along the lee trough axis will not have near the support for
sustained, organized thunderstorm activity through the late night.
For that reason, the latest SPC Day One outlook only has a Marginal
Risk (Level 1 of 5) for far west central Kansas -- only clipping a
few of our northwest counties.

Persistence is a good forecast method for winds and temperatures the
next couple of days with highs in the mid to upper 90s and south
winds 10 to 15 mph. The jet streak/disturbance moving across
Nebraska tonight into early Tuesday will push a weak cold front
toward Kansas. This front will stall out and dissolve later on in
the day Tuesday as the larger scale upper high continues to expand
across the Rockies and adjacent western Great Plains. This frontal
zone will become the focus for scattered strong/marginally severe
thunderstorms Tuesday evening, and the latest POP forecast from the
NBM has 20-30% confined to the southeastern half to two-thirds of
the DDC forecast area.

Wednesday and Thursday will see a slight pull back in afternoon
temperatures, however an even stronger jet moving across the
Northern Rockies and Northern Plains later in the week will bring a
more robust pattern change toward "cooler" temperatures, especially
by the late upcoming weekend when stronger northwest flow aloft
grips the Central/Northern Plains and a strong (by late August
standards) Canadian surface high builds/expands south into the
Central Plains. Trends in the latest global models and ensemble
systems continue to support a cooler, wetter pattern in roughly the
23-27 August period. As we get closer to this period, the forecast
will likely fluctuate multiple times as far as how much, when, and
what areas will see the most precipitation in this upcoming
wetter/cooler regime.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1127 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

VFR conditions continue and will prevail throughout the TAF
period. Most of the thunderstorm activity will reside across
northwest Kansas and away from the southwest Kansas terminals. A
very low chance of a storm does exist for HYS this evening, but
the very isolated nature of the activity warrant leaving
mention off the TAF for now. Trends will be monitored for any
potential impacts.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...Bennett