952
FXUS63 KDDC 311007
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
407 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Tranquil conditions through the weekend.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

WV imagery indicates a closed upper low moving east through southern
Oklahoma/north Texas. Near the surface, an area of low pressure is
moving east-northeast through central/eastern Oklahoma.

Tranquil conditions are expected early in the period as the SREF
indicates the aforementioned closed upper low transitioning eastward
through the Central Plains today, giving way to a more zonal flow
aloft across the Western High Plains over the weekend. That and a
much drier air mass dominating the Western High Plains will lend to
a dry forecast through at least Sunday night. Above normal
temperatures are likely today as a northwesterly downslope flow
helps draw warmer air into the area with H85 temperatures pushing 5C
in central Kansas to near 10C in extreme southwest Kansas. Look for
widespread afternoon highs in the 50s(F) with the HREF showing an 80
to 90% probability of temperatures topping 50F in central Kansas to
a 90% probability of highs exceeding 55F near and along the Colorado
border. The warming trend continues Saturday as prevailing
southwesterlies enhance warm air advection into southwest Kansas,
pushing H85 temperatures above 10C. Under ample sunshine, expect
afternoon highs generally up into the 60s(F) with the HREF painting
a 10 to 30% probability of temperatures reaching above 60F in
central Kansas to a 70 to 80% probability of above 60F in extreme
southwest Kansas. Similar temperatures are forecast Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 403 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through
late evening. Northwesterly winds are expected to increase 15
to 25kt generally after 13-15Z as a pressure gradient tightens
across western Kansas on the back side of a departing surface
low. Winds are then expected to subside through early evening
with loss of daytime heating.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson