624
FXUS63 KDDC 252338
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
538 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild and dry through Friday

- Turning colder over the weekend

- Wintry mix Sunday/Monday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

A ridge of high pressure will drop southward across the FA through
the morning hours. The pressure gradient will relax as this occurs.
The breezy NW/N winds will weaken by dusk. Uneventful weather will
prevail tonight through Friday. Lows tonight will be mainly in the
20s.

For Wednesday, the ridge of high pressure will shift off to the E/SE.
Light southerly flow will develop in its wake. Highs tomorrow will
be in the mix of 40s in the north to around 50F in the south. There
could be a smattering of high clouds by evening. Again, the weather
pattern will remain uneventful.

For Turkey day, the weather pattern continues to remain banal. Dry
upper level northwesterly flow will prevail with light southerly
flow at the sfc. The net result is a quiescent weather pattern for
the day. Highs again should be in the mix of 40s and 50s. Lows in
the 20s. These are near normal temperatures for the year. More of
the same is expected for Friday, with just a few degrees warmer in
both highs and lows.

Attention then turns to the weekend. Some good news is that the outlier
GFS from yesterday has come in agreement with the deterministic EC
as well as both the EPS and GEFS. Have higher confidence of a slug
of Arctic air advecting in across the FA over the weekend. Much colder
highs with values in the 30s and lows in the teens are now forecast
by the trending colder NBM. It will probably be also windier than
forecast, as a stout 40-50 kt 850 hPa jet looks to develop in the
wake of the strong front. As far as precipitation is concerned, there
could be an opportunity of a wintry mix Sunday and Monday. Confidence
though in moisture is lower than temperatures. Something to watch.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 536 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Northwest winds at 10 knots or less will gradually back to the
southwest overnight as an area of high pressure at the surface
builds into western Kansas. Mid and high level cloud cover will
spread across southwest Kansas tonight and will linger through
the day on Wednesday as the nose/left exit region of an upper
level jet and 850-700mb warm air advection crosses western
Kansas. Scattered to broken clouds in the 5000 to 10000ft AGL
will be possible throughout the day, especially in the Hays
area. The Hays area may even see a few sprinkles late Wednesday
with this cloud cover. The probability for sprinkles is less
than 15%, so precipitation was not mentioned in the Hays TAF
for late Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sugden
AVIATION...Burgert