190
FXUS63 KDDC 250454
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1154 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rainfall Sunday night and into Monday; a slight
  risk of Excessive Rain has been issued by WPC.

- Heavy rain again possible with showers and storms Tuesday into
  early Wednesday. Heavy rain will be the main concern with
  these showers and thunderstorms.

- Fall like temperatures expected across southwest Kansas during
  the first half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

A range of weather conditions were found across the area late
this morning. Temperatures were nearing 80 degree from Syracuse
to Liberal, while rain cooled air across the central Kansas
counties moderated temperatures to the mid and even low 60s at
11am. Numerous showers and thunderstorm overspread the areas
east of a Dighton to Dodge City and Coldwater line producing
upwards of one inch, and locally 2 or 3 inches such as eastern
Lane county. This convection was teeing off on a 925-850 mb
frontogenesis zone with weak warm advection in the mid levels
and a surface moisture convergence zone oriented nw to se.
HRRR model would bring in the next batch of numerous (80%
coverage or higher) showers and thunderstorms out of eastern CO
around 10 pm this evening, and overspreading the entire forecast
area by around 1 am. An initial severe risk cannot be
discounted given mesoscale parameters in place  a 0-3 km EHI
already around 3, supporting supercell structures thus hail and
wind and even some boundary layer shear in the the 0-1 layer
such that a 2% probability tornado outlook was issued.
Rainfall rates in the heaviest showers and storms will be
around a quarter to one third of an inch per hour. The main axis
of heavier rainfall is forecast by the short term ensembles to
be east highway 83 corridor and centered most on the highway 283
and 183 corridors, where locations like Hays, Dodge City,
Kinsley, Greensburg have a 40-60% chance of greater than one
inch of rain though 7 am Monday. Likewise the axis for greater
than 2 inches of rainfall is roughly bounded on the the north by
the highway 50/56 corridor and the 400 corridor east of Dodge
City having about a 60% chance for rain in excess of 2 inches
though 1 pm Monday. This rain may cause scattered flash flooding
with urban streets and small streams being the most vulnerable
overnight and early Monday. A Flood Watch was hoisted for
already primed areas roughly from Dighton to Lacrosse and areas
southeast to the Red Hills.

Not much has changed with respect to the latter half of the
forecast period. The coolest day of the period is Monday given
the rain cooled air over most of central Kansas. Although
temperatures recover closer to normal 80s on Wednesday as
ensembles to continue to offer relatively high confidence
(50-80% on Day 4) of appreciable rainfall and cooler conditions
returning by Thursday again.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Scattered thunderstorms are currently spattered across the CWA and
currently affecting a few sites. It is expected that all terminals
will see either SHRA or TSRA over the majority of the front half of
the TAF period. Low visibilities and ceilings are expected to lower
ceilings for much of this time period. Around 19z the bulk of the
precipitation will have exited the terminals` sphere of influence,
but lowered ceilings may linger through the whole period with low
stratus in the last few hours of the period. There are points of
uncertainty regarding exact timing, ceilings, and visibilities but
confidence overall is high.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT Monday for KSZ044>046-064>066-
078>081-089-090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Russell
AVIATION...KBJ