565
FXUS63 KDDC 190900
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
400 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms again this afternoon/evening, and very
  slow-moving storms could lead to localized excessive rainfall
  and minor flooding (mainly south of the Arkansas River)

- Dry weather forecast remainder of the workweek ahead of the
  next big pattern change.

- Cooler and wetter weather forecast late weekend through mid
  next week. Abundant rainfall is possible with repeated nightly
  thunderstorm activity and one or two days of high temperatures
  upper 60s to mid 70s possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 356 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Much of western Kansas was in a fairly moist, deep tropospheric air
mass with very weak steering winds and the lack of a cap. This is
the type of atmosphere that typically yields "pop up" showers and
thunderstorms just about anywhere at any time, making specific
forecasting for individual locations very difficult. The remnants of
last night`s convective episode across west central Kansas (which
hit portions of Lane, Trego, and Ellis Counties particularly hard
with quite a bit of rain) continued to fester over these same
locations through 0830Z (330 AM CDT).

The pattern described in the first paragraph will not change much
today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to redevelop
just about anywhere once again, but the 00Z run of the HREF seems to
show the strongest signal farther south, generally south of the
Arkansas River. We will carry 20 POPs for the entire forecast area
with higher 30+ POPs focused southeast of Dodge City where the
greatest HREF and latest runs of the HRRR signal points to.

Over the next several days, particularly Wednesday through Friday,
the upper level high will expand its influence across the Rockies
and western Great Plains, and this will increasingly suppress
thunderstorm activity, so we will keep a dry forecast going through
the end of the workweek. After that, we will begin to see the first
indications of a wholesale pattern change toward wetter/cooler as a
strong late summer Pacific jet core rounds the upper high and moves
across the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains. This will
effectively "squash" the summer subtropical high as a strong cold
front (by late August standards) pushes south toward Kansas.

All three of the major global models GFS, Canadian GDPS, and ECMWF
show this pattern developing over the weekend and maturing late
weekend through early/mid next week. There will be multiple chances
and rounds of thunderstorm activity as we have pretty much all of
the ingredients in place for organized thunderstorm activity with
excessive rainfall potential. Of course, the daily details will not
come in to focus until at least a couple days out, and each night`s
thunderstorm complex, wherever it develops that night, will have
impacts on the next day`s round of storms as well as daytime
temperatures. Speaking of temperatures, there will likely be one or
two days early/mid next week where highs will be on the cooler side
of the ensemble envelope (i.e. 25th or perhaps even 10th percentile)
given this cooler/wetter regime. For example, right now per NBM,
25th percentile high temperature for Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday
of next week are 70-75F with 10th percentile each of those days in
the mid to upper 60s. Granted, for each of those days, the 90th
percentile NBM is lower to mid 90s for highs, so early to mid next
week temperatures will be a significant forecast challenge. As far
as precipitation goes, there is also a very large envelope of QPF
with 72-hr QPF ending 7 AM CDT Wednesday 8/27 ranging from one-
quarter inch (25th percentile) to 2"+ (75th percentile). Bottom line
is, there is growing confidence of a major pattern change toward
cooler, wetter, but specific forecast on the dailies for any
specific location this far out is highly uncertain, so keep checking
back regarding this weekend and next week`s forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

A loosely organized cluster of showers and thunderstorms will
continue to dissipate through the beginning of this new TAF
period. Winds will eventually settle down to 10 knots or less at
all airports, especially after 08Z or 09Z and will remain light
through the rest of this TAF period given the lack of a pressure
gradient with the upper level high in vicinity of southwestern
Kansas.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid