862
FXUS63 KDDC 111057
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
557 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures in the 90s ahead of two cold fronts this
  week: Tuesday and Thursday/Friday

- Dry cold fronts this week due to the fast-moving nature of
  storm systems, unfavorable for bringing gulf moisture far
  enough northwest into southwest Kansas

- Record or near record highs Thursday along with increased
  fire weather risk (critical or near-critical)

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

The synoptic scale pattern across the mid-section of the CONUS was
characterized by northwest flow thanks to a building upper level
high across southern California and Arizona and a large scale trough
across the Great Lakes region. This pattern, more reminiscent of a
summer upper level pattern (absent the deep monsoonal moisture),
will prevail today and Tuesday, resulting in a continued dry
scenario for western Kansas with temperatures on the increase.
Monday will be the transition day toward very warm temperatures
Tuesday when latest NBM has highs well into the lower to mid 90s
(along and south of the Arkansas River) ahead of the next cold
front. The cold front timing on Tuesday will result in a more
difficult temperature forecast north of the Arkansas River, but the
air mass behind the front will not be all that much cooler given the
progressive nature of the shortwave trough passing across the
Northern Plains and Midwest.

Looking ahead to Thursday and Friday, hot temperatures are likely
Thursday and possibly Friday. Confidence is high on the Thursday hot
temperatures with solid model/ensemble agreement (and thus NBM) with
NBM 25-75th percentile spread of 4 to 6 degrees (i.e. 94 to 99F at
DDC for a high Thursday). The same cannot be said for Friday with
much larger 25-75th spread of 9 to 11 degrees, largely due to
differences in model timing of the next cold front Friday. A slower
front on Friday would likely result in highs closer to NBM 75th or
even 90th percentile (75th percentile high of 100F at DDC Friday).
Given the fairly progressive nature of the large scale pattern
through next weekend, each of these frontal passages are likely to
be dry for western Kansas given unfavorable moisture transport ahead
of each front (south/southwest winds). Thus, whatever small POPs we
have in the forecast will be confined to the far eastern portion of
the DDC CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 552 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through
late evening. Light southwesterly winds through mid-morning will
increase 10 to 20kt with gusts up to 25kt generally after 14-16Z
as a developing lee side trough of low pressure strengthens in
eastern Colorado. Winds are then expected to subside somewhat
while becoming more southerly this evening with a loss of
daytime heating.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...JJohnson