906
FXUS63 KDDC 151710
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1210 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A small chance (<20%) for showers late today and early
  tonight east and south of the Dodge City area.

- Mainly dry with seasonal temperatures late week.

- Highs near 100 possible this weekend.

- We will be monitoring the potential for improving chances for
  thunderstorms during the first half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

A trough of low pressure at the surface was located over
eastern Colorado earlier today with a stationary surface
boundary extending from southeast Colorado into western
Oklahoma. Much like yesterday (Tuesday), another weak upper
level disturbance will approach the area from the east late day.
As it approaches there will be an increase in cloud cover with
even a few CAMS suggesting that a isolated shower or two being
possible across south central Kansas. Currently the chance for
any isolated shower to develop is low (20% or less) and any
showers that does develop will be brief.

Temperatures will begin to warm back into the lower 90s late
week as an upper level ridge over the Northern Plains moves east
across the Rockies and a surface trough of low pressure deepens
along the lee of the Rockies. Based on the boundary layer and
850mb temperature trends late week from the latest models it
appears highs in the lower 90s will be possible for most of
southwest Kansas on Thursday with the potential for mid 90s
returning to south central Kansas on Friday.

Highs near 100 degrees will be possible this weekend. Ensembles
today remain in good agreement with previous runs regarding the
more significant warm up that will occurring across southwest
Kansas over the weekend period. Ensemble clusters continue to
indicated that 850mb temperatures will warm from the low to mid
20s on Friday to the upper 20s to near 30 by Sunday as a trough
of low pressure deepens along the lee of the Rockies. These
unseasonably warm temperatures forecast by all the ensemble
clusters will be located ahead of a cold front which will be
approaching from the northeast on Sunday, as an upper level
trough rotates around the westward moving upper ridge and begins
to drop southeast across the Northern Plains. Currently it
appears this surface boundary/cold front will move from west to
east into western Kansas during the afternoon on Sunday,
stalling in or near southwest Kansas Sunday Night/Monday. These
unseasonably warm 850mb temperatures will then persist
west/southwest of where this surface boundary stalls out next
week. Improving down slope flow next week has enhanced the
confidence that the previous forecast had the right idea with
highs near 100 will be possible for Sunday and Monday.

Thunderstorm chances may be on the increase early next week.
Early next week, an upper level ridge over the western United
States will strengthen as a west northwest flow develop across
the West Central high Plains and the center of this upper high
builds into the Central Rockies. Also a surface boundary is
forecast to be located in/near southwest Kansas. This setup will
result in improving conditions for convection to develop due to
low level moisture return and improving forcing that will be
present near the surface boundary as several upper level upper
level disturbances embedded in the west/northwest flow passes.
While this pattern does suggest an increase in the potential for
thunderstorms...confidence on exact timing and location remains
low (20-40%). This uncertainty is due to timing/track issues
between the ensemble of the upper level waves next week and
location of where the moist/instability axis will be located
north of our surface boundary each day. Those with outdoor plans
next week should monitor this upcoming even closely and be
prepared to adjust plans as the track and timing of this
improves.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

VFR ceilings (3500 to 7000ft AGL) will be possible through
early evening as an upper level disturbance approaches from the
west. These clouds will then dissipate by or after sunset.
Southeast winds will be at 10 to 15 knots with a few higher
gusts possible between 21z today and 00z Thursday.


&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert