734
FXUS63 KDDC 102318
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
618 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Minimal thunderstorm chances (20%) return Sunday night.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures likely through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

WV imagery indicates a northwesterly flow aloft prevailing across
the Western High Plains downstream of an amplifying ridge axis
shifting slowly east through the Colorado Rockies. Near the surface,
a stalled frontal boundary extends northeast from southwest Kansas
up into extreme northwest Missouri.

Generally dry conditions are forecast through much of the weekend as
the SREF indicates ridging aloft pushing slowly east through the
Central Plains tonight into Saturday while an upper level trough of
low pressure moves east through the Pacific Northwest late Saturday
and into the Northern Rockies Sunday, sending an attendant cold
front southeast into western Kansas Sunday evening. Despite some
instability, precip chances (<20%) will remain slight across
southwest/central Kansas tonight as the ridge axis passes through.
Minimal rain/thunderstorm chances (20%) return Sunday evening/night
as the aforementioned upper level shortwave trough lifts northeast
into the Northern High Plains, ushering an attendant cold front
southeastward through southwest Kansas by late evening. Near the
surface, pooling moisture within a southeast upslope flow ahead
of the boundary will support surface dewpoints well up into the
mid/upper 50s(F) to potentially the lower 60s(F), providing
sufficient instability across south central Kansas into portions
of eastern southwest Kansas. With an intensifying southwest flow
aloft and steep mid- level lapse rates, thunderstorm development
is expected along and ahead of the cold front by mid to late Sunday
evening. This is supported by the latest NBM suggesting a 20-30%
probability of 12-hr QPF exceeding 0.1 of an inch across south
central Kansas by mid-day Monday.

Well above normal temperatures are likely tonight as a stalled frontal
boundary in southwest Kansas lifts back north, allowing a low level
south-southeast flow to return to western Kansas. The latest HREF
paints a widespread 70-90% probability of temperatures dropping below
65F with less than a 10% probability of temperatures slipping below
60F in south central Kansas to a 30-50% probability of less than
60F in extreme southwest Kansas to west central Kansas. Prevailing
southerlies will draw warmer air back north Saturday, pushing H85
temperatures up near 20C in central Kansas to well above 20C near
the Colorado line. Look for widespread afternoon highs in the 80s(F)
considering the HREF shows better than a 90% probability of temperatures
exceeding 80F with a better than 90% probability of temperatures
topping 85F near the Oklahoma line in south central Kansas. Similar
temperatures are forecast Sunday before an approaching cold front
pushes through by Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 614 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Models remain in good agreement that only high clouds will
spread into western Kansas overnight as an upper level trough
exits the Four Corners region and approaches the Central Rockies
over the next 24 hours. A surface boundary currently situated
between Dodge City and Garden City at 21z today will shift north
overnight as a warm front. This will allow a south
southwesterly flow to return during the overnight hours. These
southerly winds will then increase into the 20 to 25 knot range
between 15z and 21z on Saturday. This increase is due to
stronger winds in the boundary layer mixing down to the surface
and a deepening trough of low pressure over eastern Colorado.
Between 09z and 15z Saturday a moist upslope flow will still be
present north of our warm front in north central Kansas. This
may result in some patchy fog. Given that guidance and HREF
probabilities show less than a 15% chance of visibility dropping
below 3 miles...will not include fog in the 00z TAFS for Hays
based on previous model verification. Will however continue to
monitor the situation for possible inclusion in the 06z TAFS.


&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...Burgert