759
FXUS63 KDDC 221606
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1106 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Locally severe storms possible south of a Stafford
  to Greensburg and Ashland line after 5 pm.

- Thunderstorms Producing locally severe weather Wednesday
  evening and excessive rainfall into the overnight

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Continued hot for the season over most of the area Today. Save
the northern counties where a surface cold front, almost a
stationary front, may relegate highs to only reaching the
mid/upper 70s through the I-70 corridor/Soctt City area. With
the slow southward movement by the end of this afternoon and
model boundary layer destabilization, the potential for
convection to develop will be enhanced with successive mid level
shortwaves though the southwest mid to upper flow during this
period. The first of note is the convection the HREF develops
across just about the entire list of convective allowing members
Wednesday morning (12-15z)ish seen in the HRRR Nested NAM most
aggressively. Training convection is possible along a stalled
boundary Wednesday evening, exact location might vary north or
south by a county or two however, the deterministic models do
show impactful values of 0-2 km frontogenesis and moisture flux
convergence. Parallel to the general flow aloft. This is not the
best severe weather setup however good enough for a 5% Marginal
severe risk which will center on mostly around damaging wind,
and marginal quarter size hail. Wednesday evenings Slight risk
for excessive rainfall, meaning there is a 15 percent chance for
flash flooding in withing 25 miles of any point, falls
generally east of a Larned to Kinsley and Ashland line. This is
generally supported by the aforementioned initiation features as
well as a fetch of up to 1.5 PWATs extending from the Red
River region into southeast and south central Kansas. Friday
will be the first day to to feel the impacts of the cooler air.
A coll and cloudy afternoon is forecast by the BM for a range of
high forecast at Dodge City between 65 and 73 all members
between the 25th and 75th percentile included. Expect cooler
than that as you head west and north across the Smoky Hill
valley.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1103 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through
early Wednesday. Southerly winds 15 to 25kt are expected to prevail
across south central Kansas while more light and variable winds are
forecast farther west with a stalled frontal boundary bisecting
southwest Kansas southwest to northeast through late evening.
Widespread light southerly winds are then expected to develop early
Wednesday as the frontal boundary begins to lift slowly north.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Russell
AVIATION...JJohnson