638
FXUS63 KDDC 240900
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
400 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Intense heatwave expected Saturday through Tuesday, with
  afternoon temperatures above 105 common. Extreme temperatures
  of 110 to 112 are expected at some locations.

- Preparations for homes, automobiles, pets and livestock are
  encouraged for this upcoming heatwave.

- Southwest Kansas is expected to remain dry through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 119 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

An upper level ridge will amplify over the plains over the next
several days, leading to very hot weather. For today, areas that
received heavy rain will be more humid. A heat advisory remains
in effect for the south where the heat and moisture will lead
to heat indices in excess of 105. An isolated shower or t-storm
can`t be ruled out across the far southwest corner of Kansas
with afternoon heating; but the best chance will be south of
the state line with where a weak frontal boundary will reside.

The various ensemble means continue to indicate high
temperatures between 105 and 111 for Sunday through Tuesday
given the strong upper level ridge. There is some indication
that the intense heat could last through Wednesday, especially
from Dodge City southward. There is general agreement among the
ensemble means that a front will progress into central Kansas
by Tuesday or Wednesday. There is a chance that the front could
make it farther south. However, even if a frontal passage
occurs, it is often oppressive on the cooler but moist side of
fronts this time of year where very high dewpoints typically
reside. Therefore, north of the front it will be hot and humid
while south of the front it will be very hot and dry. Either way
it will feel very hot. Isolated t-storms can`t be ruled out
wherever the front stalls out given the moisture and frontal
convergence; but with a very weak shear profile expected, the
storms will likely be sub-severe, or at best marginally severe
with high winds. The grand ensemble shows chances of .5" or
more of rain between 0 and 5% next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Excellent flying weather is expected through this TAF period,
with VFR/SKC and light winds.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ087>090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...Turner
KEY MESSAGES...Turner