838
FXUS63 KDDC 160817
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
317 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm and dry today

- Thunderstorm chances increasing Tuesday night and Wednesday

- There is a marginal risk for wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail
  will be possible after 3pm today west of a Ulysses to Garden
  City to Wakeeney line.

- Cooler Temperatures expected Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025

Earlier this Tuesday morning a trough of low pressure at the
surface was located along the lee of the Rockies with our
upcoming midweek cold front already extending from western South
Dakota into eastern Wyoming. Across western Kansas, a southeast
flow was observed with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. PWAT
values ranged from 1 to 1.3 inches. One weak 500mb trough was
crossing the Central Plains, while our next, more significant
upper low/trough was located near Idaho. A +70 knot 250mb jet
was located on the southwest side of this Idaho upper level
feature. 850mb temperatures at 00z Tuesday ranged from 20 to 24
degrees. These warm temperatures across southwest Kansas will
stay in place today as a cold front begins to approach northwest
Kansas. Given these warm 850mb temperatures combined with
abundant sunshine and good mixing potential today the highs this
afternoon will end up being very similar to the highs what we
observed yesterday (Monday). These unseasonably warm conditions
will be coming to an end as our next shot of colder air takes
aim on southwest Kansas Wednesday.

This cold front along with the evolution of the upper
low/trough near Idaho as it approaches Western Kansas will be
the main items of interest over the next several days. This
upper low/trough approaching the Central Rockies will bring
increasing chances for thunderstorms to southwest Kansas tonight
and Wednesday. Wind gusts up to 60 and hail possible from a few
storms late today across west central Kansas but the main risk
overnight and Wednesday will be locally heavy rainfall. As this
upper low/trough moves out into the Central Plains Wednesday a
cold front will cross western Kansas. This will usher in
unseasonably cool temperatures into western Kansas. These cool
temperatures (highs in the 70s) will linger through Friday and
are then expected to rebound into the 80s over the weekend as
the cool air mass gradually erodes from west to east as a west
to northwest flow develops.

Thunderstorm chances tonight and Wednesday.
Short term models remain very similar to previous runs as an
upper low moves southeast toward the Central Rockies today. The
upper level jet will moves into the base of this upper low today
and the nose of this jet being located near the the west
central high plains late in the day, aiding in thunderstorm
development across eastern Colorado. CAMs this morning continue
to advertise that widely scattered storms will develop during
the afternoon near West Central Kansas, where a weak boundary
appears to be located. Shear late in the day is still forecast
to be 20 knots or less, but large low level lapse rates,
downdraft CAPE, and >15C dewpoint depressions in the 700-500mb
level suggest that isolated wind gusts of 60 mph will be
possible along with isolated hail from any storms that do
develop. This wind risk will linger with these storms through
early evening. SPC has placed a marginal risk for this area
later today. The general area will be west of a Ulysses to
Garden City to Wakeeney line.

On Wednesday, thunderstorms will continue across southwest
Kansas as a surface cold front crosses the region and the upper
low moves and deepens over Nebraska. High PWATs ahead of this
cold front, combined with improving mid level instability under
the cool 500mb low, will continue to favor the risk for heavy
rainfall. Now if we add this rainfall on Wednesday to the
rainfall that occurred Tuesday night then we may need to
monitor the risk of possible water issues. SREF 0-500mb shear is
better on Wednesday then today and is still forecast to average
between 20-30 knots. As a result, we will be monitoring the
potential for a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms
with the cold front as it passes Wednesday afternoon. Isolated
hail and wind gusts of +50 mph cannot be ruled out on Wednesday,
but it still appears heavy rainfall will be more of an issue.
WPC also appears to be focusing on heavy rainfall Wednesday,
given that southwest Kansas is now in a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall.

Unseasonably cool temperatures late week will be followed by a
gradual warming trend over the weekend.
On Thursday, scattered thunderstorms will taper off from west
to east as the upper low begins to weaken and move towards the
western Great Lakes Region. Several weaker upper waves rotating
around this upper low may still clip portions of north central
Kansas through early Friday, resulting in clouds and ongoing a
slight chance of precipitation. This will also keep a cool air
mass in place across western Kansas through the end of the work
week. NBM temperature forecasts during this time frame have not
deviated much from the past several runs, so there is little
reason to disagree with the autumn like temperatures that the
NBM is forecasting for Thursday and Friday. Highs late week will
be only in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025

Southeast winds around 10 knots will persist overnight as
surface pressures fall along the lee of the Rockies. Between 15Z
and 18Z today, stronger winds in the boundary layer will mix
down to the surface leading to an increase in southerly winds to
near 15 knots, with higher gusts possible. VFR conditions are
anticipated today. Tonight, the Garden City area should monitor
a potential (30% or less) for high-based thunderstorms after 03Z
Wednesday.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert