719
FXUS63 KDDC 201019
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
519 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather will prevail through Tuesday with hot afternoon
  temperatures

- Heat indices approaching 105 degrees across south central
  Kansas this afternoon

- Improved chances for thunderstorms are expected to return
  Wednesday and Thursday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

An expansive upper-level ridge of high pressure, currently
centered over the Southern Plains, will be the dominant weather
feature affecting western Kansas today through the start of the
work week. This synoptic setup will promote subsidence and
compressional heating, leading to a period of hot and dry
conditions. Afternoon high temperatures are forecast to climb
into the upper 90s to low 100s across the entire area. With
southerly winds transporting modest low-level moisture, heat
indices will likely reach the 90s with low 100s east of a line
from WaKeeney to Liberal. Currently the HREF has the probability
of exceeding 105 degrees heat index is over 50 percent across
Clark, Comanche, and barber counties this afternoon. If this
comes to fruition, a heat advisory may be needed for these
counties. Overnight low temperatures will offer little relief,
ranging from the mid 60s across far western Kansas to mid 70s
across central Kansas. Precipitation chances remain near zero
through the next two days, however, an isolated storm can not be
ruled out overnight, mainly across west central Kansas and
along the I-70 corridor.

Confidence in the forecast begins to decrease mid-week as the
upper-level ridge starts to weaken and shift eastward.
Meanwhile, an upper level trough digs into the Northern Rockies
Monday, then into the Northern Plains Wednesday into Thursday.
This will allow for a subtle increase in moisture advection from
the south and the potential for weak disturbances to ripple
through the flow. As a result, isolated, diurnally-driven
thunderstorms may begin to enter the forecast for western Kansas
as early as Wednesday, with slightly better chances on
Thursday. Uncertainty for this period centers on the exact
timing of the ridge`s degradation and the strength of the cap.
Some ensemble models show the cap remaining strong enough to
limit storm coverage, while others suggest enough erosion to
support scattered afternoon convection. Any storms that do form
in this very hot and unstable airmass could produce strong,
gusty outflow winds. These storms will then weaken during the
overnight period. Highs during this timeframe are expected to be
in the 90s with lows in the 60s to low 70s.

The highest forecast uncertainty resides in the Friday into the
weekend. Long range ensemble models diverge significantly on
the evolution of an upper-level trough forecasted over the
western United States. A few models are more progressive,
digging the trough into the Rockies and pushing a weak cold
front into the plains on Friday. This solution would bring a
better chance for scattered thunderstorms and a slight
moderation in temperatures. In contrast, the other ensemble
models are slower and depicts a weaker system, holding off the
best chances for precipitation until later resulting in less
temperature relief. Given this model disagreement, there is low
confidence in the timing and coverage of rainfall and the extent
of the cooldown for the end of the forecast period. Highs
during this timeframe are expected to continue to be in the 90s
with lows in the 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 519 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through tonight with mostly clear
skies. Winds will be light and variable this morning, becoming
southelry this afternoon.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42