052
FXUS63 KDDC 050435
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1135 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Measurable rain chances are close to 0% for the next week for
  most of southwestern Kansas, and only around 10% for south
  central Kansas for Monday night.

- Near record highs are predicted for Saturday, along with
  breezy southwest winds.

- Temperatures will generally be above average for the next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024

A shortwave trough will traverse the northern plains Saturday,
pushing a cold front across Kansas Saturday evening and night.
Ahead of the front, expect breezy southwest winds and near
record highs. The HRRR/RAP tend to perform well in downslope
regimes and were followed for Saturday`s highs that are near
record values in the mid 90s. In the wake of the front Sunday,
highs will fall to the upper 70s to mid 80s (warmest readings at
Medicine Lodge and coolest along I-70). With good radiational
cooling, expect upper 40s for lows Monday morning.

Weak upper level ridging will build back across the western
high plains and southern Rockies by Monday and Tuesday. With
southerly flow returning, expect highs to warm into the lower to
mid 80s by mid week. There are very small chances for light
rain across south central Kansas Monday night along a mid level
baroclinic zone with a strong veering wind profile and mid
levels near saturation. However, ensemble means of the ECMWF and
CMCE show only 10-20% chances for .01" or greater rainfall,
mainly for areas east of Pratt and Medicine Lodge.

Weak upper level ridging will generally persist Wednesday
through Friday, with highs warming back into the mid to upper
80s, along with south winds. The ensemble means of the CMCE,
GEFS, and ECMWF all show measurable precipitation chances
around 0% during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through late
Saturday. Light southerly winds overnight are expected to turn more
southwesterly while increasing 15 to 25kt generally after 14-16Z with
gusts upward of 30kt in the afternoon as a strengthening lee side
trough in eastern Colorado edges into west central and extreme southwest
Kansas.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...JJohnson