160
FXUS63 KDDC 171930
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
230 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A return to very hot temperatures tomorrow on dry
  southwesterly winds. 100 to 105F highs likely, hottest across
  the Red Hills region.

- Marginal (Level 1) to Slight (Level 2) Risk severe storms
  clipping the northeastern DDC CWA, particularly Hays to Larned
  area ahead of advancing cold front.

- Very hot temperatures likely to return by the weekend with 100
  to 105F highs starting Saturday and probably continuing
  through next Tuesday (Aug. 25th)

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

After a couple of days break from 100-degree heat, we will see
widespread highs 100+ for much of southwest Kansas on a breezy
southwest downslope wind. Thankfully, this will only be a one-day
occurrence this workweek as another cold front will advance on
Kansas late in the afternoon and especially evening. The downslope
component being a drying wind, we expect dewpoints to fall well down
into the 50s by mid afternoon as temperatures reach 100 degrees. We
were on the fence as to whether to hoist a Heat Advisory, but
decided to give it one more look by the incoming swing and/or mid
shift to issue if confidence in fairly widespread 105+ heat indices
increases.

Along the advancing frontal zone, widely scattered thunderstorms are
likely to form, especially closer to central Kansas where low level
convergence will likely be strongest. While the greatest threat for
severe will be just north and east of even our northeastern
counties, it will be close enough to bear watching, and given the
fairly decent CAPE/Shear combo (6km AGL winds 35 to 40 knots from
the west-northwest with boundary layer winds southerly 10 to 20
knots), the SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook of 5 to 15% Large Hail
outlook with an associated CIG1 outlook for hail (conditional risk
of 2"+ diameter hail) seems justified. Any storm which does form far
enough west across our northeastern counties should move into NWS
Wichita`s forecast area fairly quickly by early evening. Additional
strong to severe storms will also likely occur in a post-frontal
upslope regime well to the north-northwest of our DDC forecast area,
so the risk from storms up in that area isn`t as great as far as
surviving down into west central Kansas later at night.

Following the hot day Tuesday, we will see another pull back in
temperature Wednesday and Thursday only to see a return back to
upper 90s to lower 100s by the weekend as the summer subtropical
high makes a rebound across the High Plains. Latest NBM 50th
percentile highs Saturday through Tuesday show 100 degrees across
pretty much the southern half of the DDC CWA with some 105F
potential one or two of those days closer to the Oklahoma line
(especially the Red Hills region).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

A light and variable wind will become southerly later this
afternoon and evening, however wind speeds will remain fairly
light at generally 12 knots or less. Flight category is expected
to remain VFR through this period with very little or no chance
for convection in vicinity of any of the four airports DDC, GCK,
HYS, LBL through midday Tuesday.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid