079
FXUS63 KDDC 220446
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1146 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat advisory in effect for eastern zones Monday afternoon,
  with heat index values of 103 to 109 degrees.

- Dry weather will prevail through Tuesday with continued very
  hot afternoons.

- Stronger south winds Tuesday, averaging 20 to 30 mph with
  gusts to 40 mph.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances expected to improve some
  Wednesday and Thursday.

- A significant heat wave is expected next weekend and next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Midday surface analysis and satellite imagery depicted a clear
sky over SW KS, and light and variable surface winds. Winds will
trend southerly and increase this afternoon in response to lee
troughing, gusting 25-30 mph. The heat will continue, with heat
advisory criteria (heat index 105+) again expected across
eastern zones this afternoon. Thunderstorm potential is again
muddled with uncertainty. Full sunshine and dewpoints in the
mid to upper 60s will again yield strong instability, with
CAPE > 3000 J/kg. Finding a forcing mechanism is difficult,
but several CAM solutions and 12z NAM suggest development south
of DDC 4-7 pm. High based multicells over a very hot boundary
layer will be capable of outflow wind gusts of 50-60 mph. Added
20%/slight pops to the forecast into this evening, but a strong
capping inversion aloft will greatly limit coverage.

Models show minor cooling on Tuesday, with 850 mb temperatures
trimming down 1-2C, and 500 mb heights eroding a notch. It will
be hard to tell the difference, but most locations should be
1-2 degrees less hot Tuesday. Guidance also suggests slightly
drier dewpoints compared to recently, in the lower 60s Tuesday
afternoon. This may be a model artifact and not based on
reality, as moist soils and green vegetation/evapotranspiration
will still be placing moisture into the boundary layer. With the
lower dewpoints, current grids show most of the eastern zones
falling short of heat advisory criteria Tuesday (100-104, as
opposed to 105-109). Not planning on a heat advisory for
Tuesday, but this will need to be revisited. The difference
that will be more noticeable will be an increased south wind,
averaging 20-30 mph as lee troughing deepens to 997 mb over NE
Colorado. Wind grids Tuesday follow the 90% ile of the NBM, or
close to 12z MAV guidance. Tuesday`s forecast is dry, given less
moisture/instability, but did notice 12z NAM solution with a
shortwave generating storms across western zones Tuesday
afternoon. This is an outlier solution, so was ignored for now.

Models show some more minor cooling Wednesday, with afternoon
temperatures more restricted to the mid 90s. Apparent
temperature grids for the eastern zones are well below heat
advisory criteria, and a heat advisory is not expected to be
required Wednesday. South winds will be strong, stronger than
what the NBM suggests, averaging 20-30 mph with higher gusts.
NBM pops for showers and thunderstorms remain in the chance
category Wednesday and Thursday evenings as the monsoonal
moisture plume shifts eastward onto the plains for a couple
days.

One more day with a small chance of a thunderstorm Friday.
After that, strong midlevel ridging will build rapidly over the
plains, with global models in agreement with a 600 dm, 500 mb
high over/near SW KS early next week. This will end all rain
chances completely this weekend and next week, and send
afternoon temperatures soaring. NBM high temperature grids are
already in the 100-104 range Sunday/Monday, and this is likely
not hot enough. A significant heat wave appears probable, and
we will begin messaging these impacts. CPC continues with much
above normal temperatures in their 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks
through the end of July into early August.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Mid level clouds will dissipate this morning giving away to
mostly clear skies for the remainder of the day. Winds will
generally be from a southerly direction, gusting to over 20
knots by this afternoon.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Hovorka_42