199
FXUS63 KDDC 072325
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
Issued by National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
625 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances are 20-30% for Sunday from Dodge City southward
  to the Oklahoma state line; and these storms could be severe
  with marginally severe with hail and damaging winds.

- There are very small chances for thunderstorms during the
  afternoons and evenings Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

A deep upper level trough progressing southeastward and amplifying across the
northern plains tonight into Sunday will push a cold front into southwestern Kansas
Sunday morning. The various CAMS and ensemble suites indicate thunderstorm
development as the front reaches Garden City and Dodge City, with a larger storm
cluster possibly forming as the storm line crosses the OK/KS line during the early afternoon.
There is a slight risk of severe storms, with the main concerns being marginally
severe hail and damaging winds, with the favored area for severe in the counties
bordering Oklahoma after possible cold pool development.

A much drier air mass will arrive in the wake of the front so that Monday will
feature plenty of sunshine, with highs in the lower 80s. Low level moisture will begin to
improve a little by Tuesday as winds become light southerly and due to
evapotranspiration. Thunderstorm chances are very low Monday, with any convection
being south of Kansas ahead of a weak upper level trough over New Mexico. This upper
level system will move across the southern plains by Wednesday. However, emanating from
low latitudes, this system is not advertised to feature much in the way of cold
air at 500mb. The best chance of thunderstorms will be closer to the center of the
upper low to the south of Kansas; but a few non-severe storms cant be ruled out
over southwest Kansas. This system will be very slow moving into
Thursday across Texas and Oklahoma, with continued very small chances (10-20%) for
non-severe storms across the southern sections of southwest and central Kansas.

After the upper low passes off to the east on Friday, upper level troughing is
indicated by the various ensemble means across the western United States. Ahead of
the trough, the mid level flow will begin to increase a little across the western
high plains. This will allow for slightly stronger south winds and moisture
advection. Pattern recognition for this time of year would favor very small chances
for thunderstorms across far western Kansas along the western edge of the rich low
level moisture. The mid to upper low flow may be just strong enough by this time for
marginally severe storms with hail, albeit isolated.

By Saturday, the persistent but weak mid level westerlies will have advected a mixed
layer eastward over the moist layer. This will serve as a lid over the low level
moisture, allowing very high dewpoints to collect in a shallow layer under the
capping inversion, leading to high surface based CAPE. Pattern recognition suggests
that an isolated thunderstorm cant be completely ruled out despite 700mb
temperatures warming to +16C, especially if a weak surface boundary manages to push
southward into western Kansas to provide a focus. Bulk shear will be improving, but
will still be on the marginal side, which does not favor supercells. But any isolated
storm that manages to form could be severe with damaging winds and marginally severe hail.

Given the continued influx of moisture from the south and evapotranspiration
underneath a capping inversion, dewpoints could reach into the mid 70s by Sunday.
And with mid to high level winds increasing a bit more, the potential for isolated
late day severe storms will persist. However, most locations will stay dry, with
significant rain chances less than 10%. Ensemble mean precipitation amounts continue
to be very low, indicating a low likelihood for storms to grow upscale into a larger
complex, if storms manage to form at all. 700mb temperatures will increase to around +18C,
which will also discourage storm organization into large clusters. Given the rich
moisture trapped beneath the elevated mixed layer, temperatures will have a hard time
getting much above 90 through Sunday except across far western Kansas in the slightly
drier air. Heat indices will begin to creep upward toward dangerous levels by Sunday across
central Kansas and perhaps as far west as Dodge City. By Monday 16 June, extreme heat
indices could become a problem if dewpoints reach into the mid to upper 70s with afternoon
readings in the lower to mid 90s, particularly from Dodge City eastward into central Kansas.


$$

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

VFR conditions are expected in vicinity of all TAF sites through early Sunday.
Light westerlies this evening will become more variable overnight ahead of a
weak frontal approaching from the north. Northerly winds around 15 to 25kt are
forecast to develop generally after 13-15Z Sunday morning behind the boundary
as it pushes southward through western Kansas into northern Oklahoma by
early afternoon.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...FINCH
AVIATION...KBJ