147
FXUS63 KDDC 021725
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1225 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will be much closer to normal today, with highs
  in the mid 80s to low 90s.

- Severe thunderstorms are possible both today and tomorrow,
  favoring the western zones. Primary severe hazard is damaging
  wind gusts.

- Dry, warming trend much of next week, with afternoon highs
  returning to the upper 90s/near 100 by Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Early morning water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air
analysis reveal a cut-off ridge centered over far northwest
Mexico has begun to build, resulting in increasing northwesterly
flow atop the central plains. As a result, weak surface lee
troughing has taken shape in far southeast CO, supporting
southeasterly upslope flow that will continue through the day
Saturday. However, strengthening subsidence ahead of the ridge
should keep skies mostly clear, allowing temperatures to creep
closer to normal with afternoon highs in the mid 80s to low 90s.
Saturday evening, confidence is increasing regarding a subtle
mid-level disturbance leading to thunderstorm initiation over
the higher terrain in CO, with subsequent organization into a
mesoscale convective system over eastern CO and tracking into
western KS by 00-02Z. The CAPE/shear parameter space will be
sufficient for a severe risk with this activity, with primary
hazards being damaging wind gusts, heavy rainfall, and frequent
lightning. Large hail will also be possible with any supercell
structures that can persist long enough to reach southwest KS.
Once this line of convection reaches roughly the US-83 corridor,
HREF members suggest a stabilizing boundary layer should
contribute to weakening, limiting the severe threat east of
US-83.

Daytime Sunday, short range ensembles agree the upper level
ridge will build further while remaining nearly stationary.
Additionally, another weak shortwave trough is progged by
guidance to dive southeast across the central plains, yielding
mostly cloudy skies for much of our area, along with some
scattered, potentially marginally severe thunderstorms favoring
areas along and east of US-283. This will foster slightly cooler
temperatures during the afternoon, with highs in the upper 70s
east to mid 80s near the KS/CO border. Another round of
thunderstorms is possible Sunday evening emerging from CO,
however confidence is limited as much of southwest KS will be in
a subsident regime in the wake of the earlier impulse.

Monday through next work-week, medium range ensembles agree the
cut-off upper level ridge will continue to gain strength while
inching its way east to near central NM. The end result will be
a gradual warming trend with little to no chances for
precipitation as strong DNVA suppresses convective development.
Expect afternoon temperatures to increase from the mid/upper 80s
on Monday to the upper 90s/near 100 by Thursday/Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Southeast winds will be at 10 to 15 knots over the next 24
hours. Tonight an area of thunderstorms will cross southwest
Kansas. A few of the stronger storms will be capable of
producing locally strong gusty winds, hail and locally heavy
rainfall. Garden City and Liberal has the highest chance for
these storms between 03z and 06z Sunday followed by Hays and
Dodge City between 05z and 08z Sunday. Outside of these storms,
VFR conditions are expected today and tonight, with ceilings
occasionally as low as 5000ft AGL. After 12z Sunday HREF has a
50% chance for ceilings to be 3000ft AGL, especially in the Hays
and Dodge City area.



&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Springer
AVIATION...Burgert