967
FXUS63 KDDC 070403
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1003 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Southwest Kansas will remain dry for at least the next 10
  days, through November 15th.

- Fantastic fall weather Thursday and Friday.

- Strong north winds Saturday, gusting 40-45 mph.

- Dramatically colder Sunday, with afternoon temperatures only
  in the upper 30s and lower 40s.

- Widespread killing freeze in the teens and 20s Monday morning.

- Another rapid warming trend Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

Midday infrared satellite imagery depicted scattered cirrus
across Kansas, embedded in the continued quiet westerly zonal
flow aloft. SWly downslope wind components will support
temperatures in the 70s this afternoon. A weak shortwave near
Cheyenne at noon will track to near Omaha this evening, with a
weak associated cold front bringing a gentle NWly wind shift
through tonight.

A fantastic fall Friday is forecast, with mild temperatures in
the 60s, and with a weakening pressure gradient, light winds.

The next much stronger cold front is expected to be racing into
NW KS around sunrise Saturday. This cold front will easily clear
the Kansas/Oklahoma border by mid morning Saturday, followed by
intense north winds. NBM wind grids have been correctly trending
stronger for Saturday, but added a bit more wind to match the
stronger 12z MAV guidance, which shows 30 mph sustained north
winds along the preferred US 83 corridor Saturday afternoon.
With intense NWly midlevel flow and full sunshine over a well
mixed boundary layer, gusts of 40-45 mph are expected. The first
round of modest cold advection will trim Saturday afternoon
temperatures close to November normals, in the lower 60s, but
the wind will make it feel much cooler.

North winds will remain elevated Saturday night through Sunday
morning, but despite the mixing, brute cold advection is
expected to deliver a strong freeze, well down into the 20s,
Sunday morning.

Flow over North America strongly amplifies Sunday, with model
consensus placing a 530 dm deep closed low near Chicago, and a
590 dm ridge over Nevada, by 6 pm Sunday. The intense NWly flow
in between will drag a secondary, stronger surge of cold dry
Canadian air into Kansas Sunday. 12z GFS/GEFS continues to trend
colder, with 850 mb temperatures as cold as -7C at DDC midday
Sunday. ECMWF/EPS guidance appears more reasonable, with 850 mb
temperatures of -2C to -4C. At any rate, Sunday will not be
comfortable. Despite sunshine, afternoon temperatures will
struggle in the upper 30s and lower 40s, with afternoon wind
chill indices reduced to near 30 at times.

For the past several days, model guidance has shown good
continuity showing strong 1038-1042 mb surface ridging diving
south into Kansas Monday morning. NBM has continued to correctly
trend colder, and is now lining up with MEX guidance with air
temperatures 18-22 common at sunrise Monday. Winds will be
light, but will push wind chills to near +10.

A rapid dramatic warming trend is expected Monday and Tuesday,
with Tuesday afternoon temperatures well above normal, well into
the 70s. This continues to align with CPC`s 80% probability of
above normal temperatures starting November 11th. A very long
dry stretch will continue into mid November, with 12z GFS/ECMWF
and their ensembles completely dry through at least November
15th.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1001 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

VFR expected through TAF pd. Light NW 5-10 kt winds.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Sugden