555
FXUS63 KDDC 260525
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1225 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms will redevelop Friday afternoon and
  evening, mainly along and east of US 283. Locally heavy
  rainfall is again possible.

- Dry weather expected over the weekend, with a warming trend.

- Summer heat returns Sunday through Tuesday, with afternoon
  temperatures near 100 degrees. Heat advisories will likely be
  required east of Dodge City each day.

- Thunderstorm chances are expected to improve Wednesday and
  Thursday evenings.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Midday infrared satellite imagery depicted a strong shortwave or
mesoscale convective vortex over central Kansas. Radar shows
scattered showers and thunderstorms across northeast zones,
redeveloping on the backside of the vortex. This system was
responsible for the heavy/flooding rainfall across the southeast
counties last night. Scattered thunderstorms will redevelop
associated with the shortwave during the 1-4 pm time range,
favoring eastern zones and central Kansas. This evolution is
supported by 12z NAM/ARW, and chance/scattered pops through this
afternoon and evening strongly favor the eastern zones.
Sufficient CAPE of 1-2k J/kg and precipitable water of 1.5-1.9
inch will continue to support locally very heavy rainfall.
Flooding will be a risk where heavy rain falls on soils
saturated from last night`s rains. Slow storm motions will also
increase hydrology concerns. Bulk shear is very weak, but
combined cold pools may generate strong outflow winds from the
strongest storms, per SPC`s marginal 5% wind probability.
Subsidence behind the departing wave is expected to limit
coverage further west. The break from the heat will continue
this afternoon with afternoon temperatures in the 80s. Mostly
clear, quiet and dry sunrise Saturday, with seasonable low
temperatures in the 60s.

High pressure aloft and its associated subsidence build in
quickly this weekend. All models show strong warming Saturday,
with a net increase of +5 to +7C at 850 mb, followed by another
1-2C of warming at 850 mb Sunday. 500 mb heights steadily climb
through the weekend to near 596 dm by late Sunday. Afternoon
temperatures will show a warming trend, but air temperatures
will continue to lag 1-2 degrees cooler than guidance, given
saturated soils, standing water and green vegetation. Expecting
mid to upper 90s Saturday afternoon, and 98-102 on Sunday.
Apparent temperature grids carry values of 104-107 across
eastern zones at peak heating Sunday, and a heat advisory is
expected to be required.

Monday and Tuesday, a pair of dry days with hot afternoons are
expected, with midlevel ridging and subsidence in full control.
Afternoon temperatures of 98-102 are expected both days, with
again eastern zones flirting with heat advisory during peak
heating, pending dewpoint trends.

Wednesday and Thursday, global models including ECMWF and its
ensemble means all show the upper high weakening some, and
repositioning southward to Texas. The resulting WNWly midlevel
flow will encourage diurnal convection to propagate eastward
from Colorado, with NBM pops continuing to favor the western
zones. The summer heat will also relax during this time, with
NBM reducing afternoon temperatures back to the 80s Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Light southeast winds at less than 10 knots will increase
between 15z and 18z today into the 10 to 15 knot range as
surface pressures fall along the lee of the Rockies. BUFR
soundings and short term ensembles all in good agreement with
VFR conditions over next 24 hours for Garden City, Dodge City
and Liberal. In the Hays area there will be a 30 to 505 chance
for ceilings to fall below 1000ft AGL with some patchy fog
around daybreak.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Burgert