042
FXUS63 KDDC 032245
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
545 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances (40-60%) return Sunday night.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures continue through Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

WV imagery indicates ridging aloft shifting slowly east through the
Central Plains. Meanwhile, a closed upper low within a larger scale
trough axis is transitioning east through Northern California into
the Great Basin. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure
remains anchored in eastern Colorado.

An ongoing dry pattern will continue early in the period as the SREF
indicates the upper level ridge exiting eastward out of the Central
Plains tonight while the approaching trough axis moves farther east
through Utah into western Colorado by mid-day Saturday. Despite
prevailing low level southerlies helping reinforce pooling moisture
across central and much of southwest Kansas with surface dewpoints
holding in the upper 50s(F)/near 60F, instability will remain fairly
limited keeping precip chances at bay through late Saturday afternoon.
There are very minimal thunderstorm chances (<20%) across west central
Kansas Saturday evening as the approaching upper level trough becomes
more negatively-tilted while it begins to lift northeast through the
Central Rockies, setting up an increasingly difluent southwest flow
aloft across the high plains of eastern Colorado. In response, low
pressure is projected to develop and deepen across northeast Colorado
Saturday afternoon with a sharpening dryline/trough axis extending
south-southwest into northeast New Mexico. With steepening low/mid-
level lapse rates and sufficient instability present, thunderstorms
are expected to develop late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening
as ejecting H5 vort maxima interact with an attendant cold front
projected to be pushing southeast through northeast Colorado and
southwest Nebraska. A stray storm or two drifting into west central
Kansas mid/late evening cannot be ruled out.

Better chances (40-60%) for thunderstorms arrive late Sunday for
central Kansas into portions of southwest Kansas as the aforementioned
upper level trough lifts northeast into the Dakotas, helping usher
an attendant cold front farther southeast into southwest/central Kansas
Sunday afternoon before stalling out Sunday evening. Sufficient available
moisture/instability and increased forcing associated with the frontal
boundary will set the stage for potential thunderstorm development
by Sunday evening. This is supported by the NBM indicating a 30-50%
probability of 12-hr QPF exceeding 0.1 of an inch in an axis extending
from central Kansas southwestward into eastern southwest Kansas by
early Monday morning.

Temperatures will remain above normal tonight with prevailing southerlies
supporting a warmer air mass across western Kansas. Look for widespread
lows in the 60s(F) with the HREF showing a 60-80% probability of
temperatures dropping below 65F in extreme southwest Kansas to an
80-90% probability of temperatures slipping below 70F in central/south
central Kansas. For Saturday, the HREF paints a widespread >90% probability
of temperatures exceeding 80F with a 60-80% probability of an exceedance
of 85F in extreme southwest Kansas. As a result, widespread 80s(F)
remains likely. Similar temperatures are forecast Sunday with an
approaching cold front slowing before stalling out somewhere generally
across west central Kansas into northern southwest Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 543 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Winds early this evening will subside a bit, but remain breezy
throughout the night. Out of the southerly direction, expected
sustained winds of 15-20 knots, with gusts 25-30 knots into
tomorrow morning. A potent low-level jet will also develop
tonight, increasing the LLWS. TAFs are reflective of this. Into
Saturday afternoon, southerly winds become strong, sustained
20-25 knots with gusts as high as 35-40 knots at times.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...Bennett