933
FXUS63 KDDC 081606
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1006 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heavy rainfall event still on track today

- Dry and mild over weekend

- Continued mild and dry next business week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

The PWAT on the 00Z KDDC RAOB was 0.80". This PWAT is expected to
increase to near 1" as the day continues. 1" is above the 90th percentile,
so there remains and will remain considerable amount of moisture
throughout the atmosphere column. The combination of this moisture
in place and the approach of an UL low spells out the concern for
heavy rainfall across the FA throughout the day. All the deterministic
guidance has QPF of 1" or more for much of the FA. WPC does have
a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall, so matches up well
with deterministic output. From a probabilistic perspective, EPS
has 90 to 100% probabilities of QPF > 1.0" for the entire region.
As such, putting all this together does give high confidence of a
heavy rainfall event today for southwest guidance. There could be
enough weak instability present that a rumble or two of thunder cannot
be ruled out completely as well. Forecast skew-t/log-p`s do suggest
that precipitation should remain in liquid form and that any major
mixed precipitation should remain west of the Colorado/Kansas state
line. Anyway, the official forecast has amounts of 1 to 3" across
southwest Kansas. All this precipitation will exit the region to
the NE through tonight into early Saturday morning.

The main synoptic low driving all the weather in the short term will
continue to move well away from the FA over the weekend. The net
result is a dry forecast and fairly mild temperatures. Highs over
the weekend look to be mainly in the 50s Saturday to mainly in the
60s Sunday. Even with the "warmth" Sunday, RH`s will be nowhere near
any major fire weather concerns. This and the combination of the
rainfall in the short term will at least put the kibosh on this particular
concern. Lows over the weekend look nothing to write about - 30s,
although 20s cannot be ruled out completely across far western Kansas
Sunday morning.

Long term deterministic and ensemble output show shortwave ridging
for the next business week. This supports the notion of a dry forecast
and mild temperatures. A fropa is possible mid week, resulting in
a slight decrease in highs. Not seeing any major airmass changes
in the mentioned output to suggest any wild temperature swings as
we close out the rest of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1000 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

IFR cigs are likely in vicinity of all TAF sites through late evening
as low level stratus associated with widespread rain continues to
spread north across all of western/central Kansas. Dissipating rain
and slowly eroding stratus south to north is expected overnight into
early Saturday morning with VFR conditions expected to return to much
of southwest Kansas by mid-day Saturday. Prevailing east-northeast
winds 15 to 25kt with gusts up to 30kt through late afternoon are
expected to turn more southerly 10 to 20kt with gusts up to 25kt
generally after 02-06Z this evening as a surface low lifts northward
through extreme southwest Kansas overnight/early Saturday morning.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sugden
AVIATION...JJohnson