884
FXUS63 KDDC 091106
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
506 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and unseasonably warm Today. Highs in some area may warm
  to near 70.

- Elevated fire risk today west of highway 283.

- A brief cool down in temperatures on Wednesday will be
  replaced by another very warm day for this time of year. Highs
  Thursday will range from the mid 60s to the lower 70s.

- Strong cold front cross southwest Kansas Thursday night. Highs
  on Friday will occur early with falling temperatures expected
  during the day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

An upper ridge was located near the west coast this morning. An
upper trough was positioned over British Columbia, just north
of this ridge. A northwest flow covered the Central United
States between this upper ridge and a northeast Canadian trough.
Temperatures at the 850mb level ranged 8 to 10C across western
Kansas and a northwest to westerly downslope flow is present
over eastern Colorado and western Kansas.

Short term models this morning remain similar to previous runs
in showing a series of progressive upper level troughs moving
through the northwest flow over the next few days. This pattern
will cause several unseasonably warm days, separated by brief
cool down. A more significant shot of cold air is expected to
move into the northern plains late this week as the upper ridge
across the west amplifies.

Our first round of unseasonably warm temperatures is expected
today. Highs today will range from 15 to 20 degrees above the
seasonal normals and may even be a few degrees warmer given the
very warm 850mb temperatures forecast across southwest Kansas.
Despite these very warm 850mb temperatures (15-18C) and a
westerly downslope flow, high temperatures today may still be a
few degrees cooler than what the 850mb temperatures suggest
(around 70) across much of the area. This reasoning may be due
to the shallow mixing layer that all the short term models have
today. This shallow mixing layer from all the short term models
will limit the realization of the warmest air just above the
surface. At this time however, given the downslope flow and
expected sky cover, am still concerned that mixing will end up
being deeper than forecast. Even mixing only a few hundred feet
higher could easily push highs closer to 70F in some spots.

The limited deep mixing today will keep the fire weather risk
in the elevated category. This elevated risk this afternoon will
be west of highway 283. Afternoon humidity is expected to drop
into the 15 to 25 percent range there. Afternoon wind gusts are
currently forecast to be less than 25 mph. If deeper mixing
occurs, winds will be stronger. Now even with higher wind
trends only a few limited areas will meet near critical fire
weather conditions. These near critical areas, should they
develop, will be across portions of extreme southwest Kansas.
Currently any near extreme fire risk is a a low end
probability, less than 30%. Still given this is a low
probability event...anyone concerned about fire weather should
be aware of this potential.

A brief cool down is expected Wednesday as a progressive upper
level trough sends a cold front across southwest Kansas later
tonight. While highs will drop about 15F, they will remain above
seasonal norms. This respite will be short lived, with a robust
return of very warm air Thursday, potentially even warmer than
today. Ensemble guidance along with the high ECMWF EFI and
positive Shift of Tails strongly supports a unanimously warm air
mass being located over southwest Kansas. This places the
850mb temperatures above the 95th percentile. Humidity values
will remain higher than today, mitigating fire weather concerns.

A stronger cold front will sweep across the area late Thursday,
ushering in a much colder airmass into southwest Kansas by
early Friday. Amplification of the upper ridge over the West
will allow an Arctic high from Canada to move into the Northern
Plains. Similar to the frontal passage tonight, a period of
gusty north winds will develop. This time, however, the winds
will be stronger based on the forecast of the 850mb north winds
and magnitude of the cold air. Wind gusts could reach 40 mph in
some areas Thursday night into early Friday.

Although the main Arctic air mass is forecast to remain east of
southwest Kansas due to an upper ridge moving east across the
Western United States, southwest Kansas will still feel the
impacts of this cold air on Friday following the cold frontal
passage. Cold air advection on Friday behind the cold front due
to gusty north winds will lead to temperatures likely peaking
early in morning before falling during the afternoon. Confidence
is improving scenario given all the ensemble clusters to
various degrees indicate some type of falling afternoon
temperature trend during the day on Friday. This cold air will
remain in place through at least Saturday with high temperatures
on Saturday being in the 30s and 40s, coldest temperatures can
be expected near the I-70 corridor.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 501 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Short term models were in agreement with a cold front crossing
southwest Kansas between 03Z and 09Z Wednesday. This passage
will usher in gusty north winds. West winds at 10 to 15 knots
ahead of the cold front will shift to the north and increase to
near 20 knots. Gusts as highs as 30 knots or a little higher
possible at times. VFR conditions can be expected over the next
24 hours with a period of mid level moisture/clouds in the 8000
to 12000ft AGL developing following the cold frontal passage.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert