154
FXUS63 KDDC 212317
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
517 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild afternoon temperatures Friday, Saturday, and Sunday as
  upper level high pressure builds across western Kansas. Highs
  each day in the lower 60s likely (>60% chance each day,
  especially Saturday).

- Dry weather through at least Wednesday in a zonal jet stream
  pattern across the Rockies.

- Probabilities of measurable precipitation, including snow,
  increase by late Wednesday into Thursday (24hr QPF probs
  increasing to 40+ %)

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Water vapor loop and RAP analysis showed a mid-upper level ridge
continuing to build and expand across the Rockies and High Plains.
Only a few high clouds have moved across western Kansas, but
otherwise very quiet weather continued, including a light/variable
wind across western Kansas as a surface high pressure ridge moves
across Kansas.

For tonight, southwestern Kansas will remain under the influence of
the departing surface high, but winds will slowly become southerly
late tonight into early Friday. Persistence is a pretty good
forecast method right now, so we will see lows tonight similar to
that of last night, generally in the mid to upper 20s. The overall
synoptic pattern will not change much on Friday, but as the air mass
gradually modifies after a recent cold front passage, we should see
afternoon temperatures exceed today`s highs by 6 to 8F across
western Kansas, resulting in highs right around 60F for most of our
forecast area.

Heading into the weekend, a strong upper tropospheric Pacific jet
core will push into the western CONUS and across the Rockies, which
will foster a deepening of the leeside trough in the lower
troposphere across the length of the High Plains. A lead shortwave
trough moving out across the Northern Rockies and Dakotas will
result in a cold front late Sunday across the Central Plains. Ahead
of the front, more afternoon temps of the lower 60s are likely
across much of southwest Kansas. As the leeside trough strengthens,
so will the southerly winds, although the MSLP gradient will not be
all that intense, so winds Saturday afternoon will likely be 10-15
mph.

An extended polar jet core will overspread much of the CONUS with
high zonal index, so the zonal pattern will lead to continued dry
weather. Now, as we head deeper into the holiday week, there
continue to be indications of a pattern shift as the large scale
pattern amplifies just a bit, marked by a fairly strong disturbance,
shown by all three of the major global models. This system, though,
will still be moving east across the Central CONUS within a fairly
fast/zonal hemispheric regime. This will prevent substantial Gulf of
Mexico moisture transport into Kansas, but fairly strong large scale
baroclinic zone in vicinity of the jet core would go a long way in
aiding in upward vertical motion for at least some light
precipitation wherever the Wednesday-Thursday wave comes out.
Nevertheless, there is fairly high confidence in a low level air
mass being cold enough for snow, so even light amounts of
precipitation with Wednesday-Thursday system would have to be
monitored closely for potential winter impacts.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 516 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

VFR flight category with winds in general under 12 kts for all
the terminals during the time period.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...Tatro