879
FXUS63 KDDC 232209
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
509 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms make a return to southwest KS this
  afternoon, primarily posing a damaging wind gust and large
  hail threat.

- Warm, dry conditions resume Friday through the end of the
  period, with daily highs in the upper 90s to low 100s.

- Monday and Tuesday look particularly hot, with highs in the
  105- 110 range.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Late morning water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air
analysis reveal a fairly flat ridge centered over the southern
plains, allowing modest westerly flow across the central Rockies.
Additionally, a shortwave trough was noted over western WY moving
east-southeast. At the surface, broad high pressure is centered over
the Midwest, leading to southeasterly winds across southwest KS.
Despite the marginally weaker ridge aloft, models show 850-mb
temperatures will rise by around 3-5 degrees C, which will translate
to afternoon highs warming into the upper 90s to low 100 for most,
while the northern zones stay a bit cooler in the lower 90s courtesy
of lingering cloud cover this morning. A Heat Advisory remains in
effect for Meade and Clark counties where dewpoints in the upper
50s/low 60s combine with temperatures in the low 100s to support
heat indices at or above 105 degrees F. While adjacent counties will
likely fail to reach Heat Advisory criteria, precautions should
still be taken to limit outside exposure.

Focus then shifts to the first opportunity for severe thunderstorms
in our area in quite some time. As the aforementioned shortwave
trough over western WY approaches later this afternoon, HREF members
all agree scattered thunderstorms will develop across southwest KS
by 21-22Z. With gusty surface southeasterlies beneath ~20 kt
westerly flow at 500-mb, and strong surface heating amidst upper 50s
to mid 60s dewpoints, the CAPE/shear parameter space will be
sufficiently supportive of organized convection. HREF members
suggest the primary storm mode will be a combination of high-based
supercells and bowing segments that will pose a mainly damaging wind
gust risk, although isolated large hail will also be possible. This
activity should weaken quickly after sunset as the boundary layer
stabilizes, but convection will likely linger over our eastern zones
through sunrise Friday morning.

Daytime Friday, short and medium range ensembles agree the upper
level ridge will begin to rebuild northwestward to near the Four
Corners region, and this ridge will only propagate slightly eastward
through the rest of the forecast period. This synoptic evolution
will result in a resumption of the dry conditions across the central
plains, along with daily afternoon temperatures in the upper 90s to
low 100s. At the moment, Monday and Tuesday look particularly hot as
highs in the 105-110 range appear likely for much of the area.
Therefore, multiple days of Heat Advisories, and perhaps some
Excessive Heat Warnings, will assuredly be forthcoming.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 509 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Thunderstorms will be ongoing at the start of the TAF period,
especially for GCK, DDC, and LBL. HYS is expected to get storms
later this evening. Strong winds could accompany these storms
as they track eastward. Storms will taper off late tonght from
west to east through 09z. Otherwise, skies clear into Friday
morning with VFR conditions expected. Expect winds easterly to
start the period, shifting northeasterly through Friday
afternoon.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ087-088.
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ087>090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Springer
AVIATION...Bennett