684
FXUS63 KDDC 071101
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
501 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Clouds and cold air will try to erode from southwest to
  northeast today across southwest Kansas. This will result
  afternoon temperatures ranging from the lower 50s near the
  Colorado border to the mid 30s in the Hays and Larned areas.

- Fire Weather Risk will be on the increase Monday and Tuesday.

- Unseasonably warm Temperatures return early this week. Highs
  around 20 degrees above the seasonal normals for this time of
  year will be possible on Tuesday.

- Next significant shot of colder air will take aim on southwest
  Kansas Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025


Light rain/sprinkles developed earlier tonight as an upper
level trough moved across southwest Kansas. As of 2am this
trough was moving out of the area allowing colder air and low
clouds to move into the region.

Short term models remain in agreement today with the
reinforcing shot of colder air this morning will stall across
southwest Kansas before noon. This unseasonably cold air will
then be quickly pushed eastward this afternoon following the
passage of a shortwave trough and improving downslope flow. This
will create a temperature gradient this afternoon, with highs
ranging from near 50 degrees along the Colorado border near
Elkhart to the mid 30s in the Larned and Hays areas. If the low
clouds are able to erode quicker than currently expected the
highs may end up being several degrees warmer.

Fire weather risks will be on the increase early next week.
The cold air will retreat from west to east tonight and Monday
as downslope flow continues to improve and unseasonably warm
850mb temperatures start to spread across western Kansas. This
improving downslope flow will not only lead to a rapid warmup
early next week but will also likely cause gusty south southwest
winds. Based on model trends over the past few days, the
potential for increasing winds and warm/dry conditions means the
fire weather risk will be rising across southwest Kansas with
the higher risk being on Tuesday. Currently the latest ensemble
clusters and NBM guidance only suggest an elevated risk for fire
weather by Tuesday. However, we will be closely monitoring
this, given the improving downslope flow and potential for deep
mixing across western Kansas on Tuesday. Deep mixing supports
lower dew points and stronger winds reaching the surface. This,
combined with improving downslope flow, would favor lower
afternoon humidity values and stronger winds than what the NBM
currently forecasts. Confidence in this scenario is medium to high
(60-70%). Therefore, despite the risk level only being
highlighted as elevated, it would be wise to prepare for higher
fire weather risks on Tuesday.

A significant warmup is also expected early next week. Short
term models and ensemble clusters suggest 850mb temperatures
will quickly warm to >12C by Tuesday afternoon. This is greater
than the 90% percentile of the model climatology for this time
of year. Given this unseasonably warm temperatures forecast
across western Kansas combined with downslope flow...temperatures
often end up being warmer than NBM guidance. Currently the
forecast high temperatures are already about 15 degrees warmer
than seasonal normals. However, highs could reach the 90-95%
range, meaning Tuesday afternoon highs might be at least 20
degrees above seasonal temperatures. Despite this possible
warmup, these highs are expected to fall short by a few degrees
of the record highs for December 9th (Dodge City record high is
75F, Garden City 77F and Medicine Lodge 74F).

These warm and dry conditions will precede a cold front mid
week. An upper level trough will cross the central United States
which will allow the front to move across the Central Plains.
Due to the progressive nature of this system mid week, the cold
frontal passage is expected to be dry, with limited colder air
reaching southwest Kansas. Following the cold frontal passage
temperatures will drop by about 10 to 15 degrees. Even with this
drop, mid week temperatures will remain at or above seasonal
normals.

This first cold front passage mid week will be followed by a
more significant one late this week as a surge of arctic air
moves south across the Central Plains. There is still
uncertainty about how cold this air mass will be late
week/early next weekend due to the upper ridge and the quick
development of downslope flow. Despite this uncertainty on the
magnitude of this cold air...all ensemble clusters do agree
that afternoon temperatures will be unseasonably cold
temperatures are expected Friday and Saturday. Current forecasts
suggest high temperatures only in the 30s on Friday with highs
ranging from 35 to near 45 on Saturday. This is currently the
most likely solution but there is a low probability (less than
25%) that some areas may not warm much higher than the mid 20s
on Friday and around 30 on Saturday, with single digit lows
possible. Anyone with plans Friday or Saturday should monitor
this next shot of cold air and be prepared.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 500 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Latest satellite imagery supports the short term models trend
of low clouds spreading across southwest Kansas early this
Sunday morning. Given this agreement and model consistency, the
forecast will remain close to the current trend. Low clouds will
persist longest in the Hays area, with ceilings possibly as low
as 1000 ft AGL until 17Z today. Conditions should gradually
improve to greater than 3000 ft AGL after 20Z. The Dodge City
and Garden City areas may see low clouds (1000 to 2000 ft AGL)
between 12Z and 16Z today. Liberal has a 40-60% chance of
briefly seeing low clouds between 14Z and 16Z today.
Northeasterly winds around 10 knots early today will gradually
shift to a more southerly direction as skies clear between 21Z
today and 00Z Monday.


&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert