711
FXUS63 KDDC 232304
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
504 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer temperatures are predicted through Sunday with highs
  reaching the 60s.

- Cooler weather is forecast starting Monday.

- There are small to medium chances for light rain changing to
  light snow Wednesday afternoon and night. Snow accumulations
  are expected to be very small.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

At 12Z this morning, an upper level ridge was located over the
Western High Plains, with the next upper level trough/low
positioned just off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Ahead
of this upper trough/low, a weaker upper wave was near the nose
of an upper level jet over Idaho and northern Nevada. As this
weaker upper level trough moves east into the Northern Plains
over the next 48 hours, a surface cold front will drop south
across western Kansas.

Short term models are in decent agreement on the timing of this
weekends cold front, moving it across western Kansas between 9
am and 6pm Sunday. Ahead of the cold front, unseasonably warm
air will persist, with highs in the 60s expected across
southwest and south central Kansas. Along the I-70 corridor,
cooler air will begin to return late Sunday, but not before
temperatures climb to around 60F.

In addition to these unseasonably warm temperatures for late
November, patchy fog may develop early Sunday morning across
the I-70 corridor and east of Highway 283. This is due to light
southeasterly upslope flow and surface/boundary layer humidity
values exceeding 70% between 3am and 9am Sunday morning. While
widespread dense fog is not expected at this time, those
traveling early Sunday morning should prepare for a 4060%
chance of fog reducing visibility to less than 1 mile, based on
the latest HREF probabilities between 3am and 9am Sunday.

Once the cold front passes, gusty north winds will usher in
colder air across western Kansas Sunday night. NBM guidance
shows less than 5 degree spread in high temperatures Sunday
afternoon between the 25th and 75th percentiles. This suggests
good agreement on highs on Sunday. These highs will range from
the low to mid 40s on Monday.

As we move into the upcoming workweek, all ensemble clusters
are in good agreement on a zonal flow across the Rockies early
in the week as the upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast
finally moves eastward. This will allow temperatures to rebound
slightly during the first half of the workweek, but the warm up
will be brief due to the progressive nature of the next upper
wave.

By midweek, ensemble clusters diverge on the strength and
timing of the upper wave as it crosses the Central Plains.
However, all ensembles maintain a fairly progressive system,
which typically limits precipitation accumulation associated
with an upper wave as it moves through. At this time the best
chance for any precipitation mid week will be along a mid level
frontogenetic band ahead of this upper wave which is forecast to
be located across northern Kansas for 6 hours early in the
event before quickly moving south southeast. Even with this
enhanced mid level forcing it is interestingly that the latest
NBM currently shows only a 1525% chance for precipitation in
this region Wednesday into Thursday. Also if precipitation does
develop, the type (rain/snow) is unclear due to the lower
resolution of extended model soundings, the timing of the next
cold air intrusion, and the track of the upper level trough.
Given these uncertainties will follow the guidance from the
grand ensemble. This guidance has precipitation beginning as
rain and then transition to snow before ending. Also if this
scenario holds true, the latest NBM and WPC guidance indicates
from the snow that does develop...there is only a 2030% chance
of 24 hour snowfall totals to exceed 0.1 inch, with the best
chances being north and west of Garden City and along the I-70
corridor. The probability of 24 hour snowfall totals exceeding
0.5 inches in the same area is currently below 20%.


Despite these low chances, we still will be monitoring this
midweek event closely given the upcoming holiday.

In addition to the potential for snow midweek, this upper level
trough will bring a reinforcement of colder air into western
Kansas. Highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s are expected to
persist through Thanksgiving and into the start of the weekend,
consistent with the temperature trends indicated in recent model
runs.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 503 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

VFR flight category for all terminals during the time period
with a band of mid to high level clouds going through the
central plains to start the time period. Winds in general will
be 12 kts or less however a strong cold front will start to
approach HYS by 00Z.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Tatro