625
FXUS63 KDDC 312330
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
630 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Next shot at precipitation will be mid week but in be in the
slight chance range (15-30 percent) behind a cold front

- Another slight chance possible Friday

- Below normal temperatures continue through the forecast period
with Thursday being the coolest

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

The synoptic pattern over the united states can be depicted as an
upper level low over the eastern United States and a ridge over the
western United States.  Northwest flow is found over the Central
Plains with a few shortwaves moving through this flow this week.

A dry pattern emerges this evening through the first part of next
week with northwest flow aloft. A few showers or storms will be
possible across central Kansas tonight then be pushed southward as a
dry cold front moves through the area Monday night. Winds will
generally be light tonight then from a northerly direction through
Tuesday. Highs Sunday through Tuesday will generally be in the upper
70s to mid 80s with far western Kansas experiencing the warmest
temperatures. Lows will generally be in the 50s.

Long range ensemble models then depict an upper level low diving
south from Canada and into the northern Plains mid week. This will
push a cold front through the area sometime Wednesday increasing
wind speeds from the north. As of now temperatures do not seem to be
effected by this front Wednesday with highs in the upper 70s to low
80s, but this may need to be adjusted if the front moves through
earlier than expected. Cloud cover increases behind this front with
a slight chance of rain Wednesday evening into the overnight period.
Expect a dry day on Thursday with a secondary push of cold air
Friday into this weekend as weak disturbances move through the area
bringing periods of slight chance of precipitation. Cooler
temperatures are expected Thursday behind the front with highs in
the 70s. We then rebound into the upper 70s to low 80s late week
into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

KDDC radar observations and visible satellite imagery show
isolated, weak thunderstorms are spread out across much of
southwest KS. This activity could impact GCK, HYS, and LBL over
the next few hours, supporting a prob30 group in the TAFs
showing MVFR cigs and -TSRA. Otherwise, winds will remain light
and variable through much of the period, with only a slight
uptick out of the north around 21Z Monday.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Springer