092
FXUS63 KDDC 060003
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
603 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low clouds and fog will dissipate from west to east Wednesday
  afternoon, producing a large range in temperatures.

- A weak dry cold front will bring a northeast wind shift early
  Thursday. Another dry cold front passage is expected early
  Saturday. Strong north winds are expected Saturday.

- Southwest Kansas will remain dry through Sunday.

- Light snow potential remains evident next Tuesday/Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Shallow arctic air mass, along with attendant stratus and fog,
will continue to erode from west to east through sunset, and
into this evening. A large temperature range will result,
ranging from 30s east to 70s west. At 130 pm, Hays reported 26
degrees, while Elkhart was 78! Models very aggressively spread
much warmer air at 850 mb over SW KS this afternoon and this
evening, but much of this will not be realized at the ground,
with the stable shallow arctic air trapped in the boundary
layer, and the onset of the nocturnal inversion.

Light surface winds will veer from south, to west, to northwest
tonight as a weak dry cold front approaches. This is expected
to minimize fog formation in SW KS tonight. The cold front
passage around sunrise will produce a north/northeast wind
shift, with some gusts to near 30 mph soon after sunrise with
the onset of mixing. Elevated northeast winds will trend
easterly Thursday, but with full sunshine, and the eradication
of the stubborn shallow arctic air, a much more pleasant day
will be enjoyed. More uniform temperatures in the upper 40s and
lower 50s expected Thursday afternoon. Quiet dry weather
continues Friday, with sunshine and continued benign zonal flow
aloft. Light southeast winds, with another temperature range
from 40s northeast to 60s southwest.

A weak shortwave and attendant surface cyclone pass Friday
night, followed by the next dry cold front passage Saturday
morning. North winds will be quite strong behind the cold front
passage early/midday Saturday, with 850 mb flow of 45-50 kts
noted. Included the 90%ile of the NBM for wind grids for
Saturday, along the lines of 12z MEX guidance. Despite the
north winds, Saturday afternoon temperatures will remain
seasonable in the 40s and 50s. Noticeably colder air will be in
place Sunday, in the 30s.

Models continue to waffle on precise timing, to be expected this
far out, but with broad SWly midlevel flow developing over cold
high pressure at the surface, a general light overrunning snow
setup continues to be apparent at some point early next week.
NBM pops remain in the chance category Tuesday/Wednesday, with
sufficiently cold air to be confident any precipitation would
take the form of snow. 12Z GEFS ensembles currently place the
highest probability of measurable snow Wednesday, while
12z ECMWF/EPS argues for Tuesday. This timing will continue to
be honed down, but high confidence this will not be a major
winter storm next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 558 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Light winds will result in a redevelopment of areas of dense fog
this evening. Later tonight, weak downslope flow will develop
ahead of a cold front and these will scour out the fog after 3-4
am. Winds will become north and then northeasterly and
eventually easterly in the wake of the front. The fog will
primarily affect KDDC, with VISBYS less than 1/4 mile. KGCK may
be affected by fog this evening before dissipating after
midnight. Low MVFR CIGS will likely persist at KHYS before
improving to VFR as the front approaches by 10-12z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 209 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Surface observations at 2 pm showed red flag conditions in
progress across the Oklahoma panhandle and southeast Colorado.
Guymon was reporting 80/14 with 37 mph gusts, relative humidity
of 8% at 2 pm. With these higher end red flag conditions very
near the Kansas border, opted to keep the red flag warning going
through this afternoon for far southwest Kansas.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ074-084-
085.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Finch
FIRE WEATHER...Turner