247
FXUS63 KDDC 060330
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1030 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

...Updated Aviation/Key Messages/Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly southeast of Dodge
  City Saturday afternoon and Saturday night.

- After near seasonal temperatures Saturday, a rapid warming
  trend is expected Sunday through Tuesday.

- Several afternoons of intense heat are expected next week,
  with afternoon temperatures near 100. The hottest day will
  likely be Wednesday combined with strong south winds.

- Dry weather will prevail across SW KS through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

00z DDC sounding was quite unstable, with CAPE over 3200 J/kg
and a lifted index of -10, but it was also strongly capped, and
despite strong outflow boundaries, most of SW KS has remained
dry Friday as expected. Elevated south winds and elevated dew
points will hold temperatures in the 60s at most locations
through sunrise.

Closed midlevel subtropical cyclone over Far West Texas
currently will track northeast to the Permian Basin at sunrise,
to near Childress, Texas at 7 pm Saturday, and across eastern
sections of the DDC CWA Saturday night. Most of the system`s
rain will fall within the much stronger lift, east of the low`s
track, across Oklahoma and central/eastern Kansas. Still, at
least some showers and thunderstorms are expected to enter the
southeast zones, mainly southeast of Dodge City, Saturday
afternoon and evening. WPC QPF fields show 0.10-0.20 inch across
these southeast zones, and that appears reasonable. Subsidence
beneath the western periphery of the cyclone`s circulation will
keep most of SW KS dry through Saturday night. Will comment that
some CAMs bring rain showers as far west as about US 283
Saturday night. With the additional clouds, Saturday`s
temperatures will be held back to the mid 80s.

The subtropical cyclone is modeled to weaken to an ejecting
shortwave, reaching the Missouri valley by 7 pm Sunday. Once
this wave leaves SW KS, a strong warming trend will begin, with
afternoon temperatures rebounding to the lower to mid 90s
Sunday.

Midlevel heights rise strongly Monday and Tuesday, for a
continuation of the warming trend. NBM guidance is quite hot,
showing 70-80% probability of temperatures reaching 100 Tuesday
afternoon, across most of SW KS. Wednesday looks at least
equally as hot, and may offer near record highs with strong
southwest winds and prefrontal compression. Strong northern
plains trough Wednesday is progged to send a cold front into
SW KS by Thursday, shaving temperatures back closer to June
normals.

Rain opportunities through next week will be limited, but they
will not be zero. A shortwave riding the periphery of the
building ridge may generate some storms favoring the northeast
counties late Monday, and there may be some convection near the
frontal boundary Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

VFR will continue through this TAF period, with varying amounts
of cirrus. All airports are expected to remain dry through this
period. Light south winds of 7-12 kts will prevail through
15z Sat. After 15z Sat, south winds will increase at all
airports, gusting 25-28 kts.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Turner
KEY MESSAGES...Turner