355
FXUS63 KDDC 041752
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1252 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong south winds Saturday, with gusts to near 45 mph during
  the afternoon. Elevated risk of wildfire spread west of US 83.

- Cold front arrives Sunday night, with scattered thunderstorms
  favoring the northeast zones. Some storms may produce
  marginally severe wind gusts and hail.

- Much cooler air arrives Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

A strong midlevel cyclone was spinning over Nevada at midnight.
In response, a strong low level jet was in progress across the
plains, keeping south winds elevated and temperatures
unseasonably warm. Surface observations depicted lower 70s still
at midnight, and temperatures will struggle to fall through the
upper 60s at sunrise. This is 15-20 degrees above normal for
early October.

Models remain consistent ejecting the Great Basin cyclone into
the central Rockies this afternoon and evening, as a strong
negatively tilted shortwave. Strong lee cyclogenesis (<995 mb)
east of Denver will result, with strong south winds responding
across SW KS. South winds will increase quickly around mid
morning, with the strongest winds expected during the late
afternoon. 850 mb wind fields remain near 40-45 mph at peak
heating, so gusts of that magnitude are expected in the
unseasonably warm, well mixed environment. Followed the 90%ile
of the NBM for all wind grids Saturday through Saturday night.
Heights decrease strongly today as the Rockies trough
approaches, but still with little cooling at 850 mb, afternoon
temperatures will commonly be in the upper 80s, about 10 degrees
above normal.

Another strong low level jet will develop after sunset Saturday
night, with strong/elevated south winds and temperatures
struggling to fall into the 60s through sunrise Sunday. Sunday
will still be unseasonably warm, in the 80s, in the prefrontal
warm sector, with model guidance consistently placing the cold
front across the northern zones 4-7 pm Sunday. Convergence along
the frontal boundary will encourage at least scattered
thunderstorms Sunday evening/night, favoring the northeast
zones, northeast of DDC. Storm coverage should favor the I-70
corridor, where available instability and shear are forecast to
be sufficient for organized multicells/brief supercells.
Marginal 5% wind/hail probability from SPC remain appropriate,
with models focusing this risk northeast of DDC.

Cold front will advance south quickly Sunday night through
Monday. In fact, all models are trending toward a faster and
stronger arrival of cooler air, and guidance is trending cooler
for Monday. NBM temperatures Monday have been trending down, but
need to be reduced some more, with 00z MOS guidance keeping most
of SW KS in the 60s with clouds and northeast winds Monday
afternoon. Where stratus and drizzle persist much of the day,
some northern locations may remain in the 50s all day, as
extended 00z NAM suggests. Tried to undercut NBM a few degrees
Monday. Welcome to fall, a big change after a very warm weekend.
Scattered rain/showers/embedded thunder appear possible in the
post cold front environment Monday and Tuesday, and NBM pops
remain. However, it should be noted, if the cold front pushes
too far south, additional showers and thunderstorms may remain
south of SW KS, favoring the panhandles, as global models and
ECMWF/EPS ensemble members suggest.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Strong south winds will continue through this afternoon and
evening ahead of an intense storm system across Colorado. An
intense low level just a couple thousand feet off the surface
will peak from roughly 04-10Z at around 55 knots from the
south-southwest. Surface winds will remain from the south
through the end of this period early afternoon Sunday. Since
southwestern Kansas will remain in the very warm sector, low
ceilings from stratus cloud are not expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 224 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Strong south winds are expected Saturday afternoon, gusting 40-45
mph. Some brief local gusts to 50 mph are possible, especially west
of US 83. Unseasonably warm temperatures in the 80s will force
minimum relative humidity to fall to 20-25% west of US 83. As such,
the risk for fire spread will be elevated across these western
zones, and outdoor burning is strongly discouraged Saturday.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Umscheid
FIRE WEATHER...Turner