402
FXUS63 KDDC 080956
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
356 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heavy rainfall event still on track today

- Dry and mild over weekend

- Continued mild and dry next business week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

The PWAT on the 00Z KDDC RAOB was 0.80". This PWAT is expected to
increase to near 1" as the day continues. 1" is above the 90th percentile,
so there remains and will remain considerable amount of moisture
throughout the atmosphere column. The combination of this moisture
in place and the approach of an UL low spells out the concern for
heavy rainfall across the FA throughout the day. All the deterministic
guidance has QPF of 1" or more for much of the FA. WPC does have
a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall, so matches up well
with deterministic output. From a probabilistic perspective, EPS
has 90 to 100% probabilities of QPF > 1.0" for the entire region.
As such, putting all this together does give high confidence of a
heavy rainfall event today for southwest guidance. There could be
enough weak instability present that a rumble or two of thunder cannot
be ruled out completely as well. Forecast skew-t/log-p`s do suggest
that precipitation should remain in liquid form and that any major
mixed precipitation should remain west of the Colorado/Kansas state
line. Anyway, the official forecast has amounts of 1 to 3" across
southwest Kansas. All this precipitation will exit the region to
the NE through tonight into early Saturday morning.

The main synoptic low driving all the weather in the short term will
continue to move well away from the FA over the weekend. The net
result is a dry forecast and fairly mild temperatures. Highs over
the weekend look to be mainly in the 50s Saturday to mainly in the
60s Sunday. Even with the "warmth" Sunday, RH`s will be nowhere near
any major fire weather concerns. This and the combination of the
rainfall in the short term will at least put the kibosh on this particular
concern. Lows over the weekend look nothing to write about - 30s,
although 20s cannot be ruled out completely across far western Kansas
Sunday morning.

Long term deterministic and ensemble output show shortwave ridging
for the next business week. This supports the notion of a dry forecast
and mild temperatures. A fropa is possible mid week, resulting in
a slight decrease in highs. Not seeing any major airmass changes
in the mentioned output to suggest any wild temperature swings as
we close out the rest of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 400 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Scattered shra through the overnight hours with activity diminishing
west to east. LIFR to IFR flight conditions with a combination of
low cigs and BR and reduced visibility this morning. More shra throughout
the day as a weather disturbance tracks over the terminals. The reduced
cigs and vis will continue through much of the pd as considerable
moisture and clouds spread over the terminals. Winds NE to E 10-20kt.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden