367
FXUS63 KDDC 052324
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
524 PM CST Wed Nov 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Southwest Kansas will remain dry for the foreseeable future,
  through at least November 14th.

- Pleasant fall weather expected Thursday and Friday.

- Stronger, but still dry, cold fronts expected over the
  weekend, with strong north winds and much cooler air.

- Killing/hard freezes expected Sunday and Monday mornings, with
  air temperatures in the teens and 20s.

- Another rapid warming trend Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CST Wed Nov 5 2025

An exceptionally quiet weather regime continues, with midday
satellite imagery depicting a perfectly clear sky over SW KS and
adjoining states. Midlevel high pressure ridging continues to be
suppressed southward into south Texas, with benign zonal flow
continuing. Surface observations depicted the latest dry cold
front had progressed deep into Texas and Oklahoma, with
elevated northeast winds at midday rapidly diminishing this
afternoon as 1023 mb surface high pressure ridging builds south
into Kansas.

Thursday and Friday will feature fantastic fall weather, with
mild afternoon temperatures, few clouds and relatively light
winds. Another inconsequential dry cold front will pass Thursday
night with an uptick in north winds, with no impacts. Friday
afternoon looks fantastic, with temperatures of 66-72 and light
winds.

Models remain consistent showing the synoptic pattern over North
America amplifying strongly this weekend, with a deep trough
intensifying over the Great Lakes, forcing ridging to expand
over the Rockies as a result. Strong NWly midlevel flow will
persist, a very dry pattern in November, ensuring the dry
forecast will continue. In fact, any clouds will be few and far
between this weekend. At least 2 stronger cold fronts are
expected, the first arriving about sunrise Saturday. North winds
will be strong Saturday, gusting easily 30-40 mph, and stronger
than NBM guidance. Per coordination with neighbors, increased
winds toward the higher guidance. The first round of more
modest cold air advection will lower Saturday afternoon
temperatures to near normal, in the lower 60s, although with a
significant cooling effect from the wind.

Strong surface pressure rises are expected Saturday night into
Sunday, as a strong reinforcement of cold dry Canadian air
arrives. Models and ensemble means continue to trend colder with
this air mass, as a strong 530 dm upper low deepens near
Chicago by 6 pm Sunday. Cold advection will send 850 mb
temperatures to near 0C, with Sunday afternoon temperatures
struggling through the 40s. NBM max temps Sunday continue to
trend colder toward the colder MEX guidance.

Despite mixing and elevated north winds, a freeze is expected
Sunday morning just based simply on cold advection, in the mid
20s to lower 30s. An even harder/more killing freeze, from
intense radiational cooling and light winds, is expected Monday
morning, as a 1040 mb Canadian surface high builds over Kansas.
Used at least the 25%ile NBM for Monday morning lows, with the
expectation of 15-25 degree air temperatures sunrise Monday.

Southwest winds return quickly, allowing for a rapid warming
trend Monday and Tuesday. This matches with CPC`s 80%
probability of above normal temperatures next week, November
10-14th. High confidence the first half of November will be dry,
with 12z GFS and ECMWF in agreement with 0% precipitation
probability through at least November 14th.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 520 PM CST Wed Nov 5 2025

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through
late Thursday afternoon. Light easterly winds through late evening
are expected to turn south-southeasterly generally after 06-08Z as
surface high pressure shifts east out of eastern Kansas while lee
side troughing develops in eastern Colorado.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...JJohnson