961
FXUS63 KDDC 212200
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

...Updated Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather in the short term (tonight and Friday).

- Cooler with increasing rain chances this weekend.

- A wet weather pattern next week with models showing potential of
  totaling 1-3+ inches of rain over several days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

19Z upper air analysis shows a 597 dm high centered near the 4
corners region with the upper level flow in the central plains
coming out of the north to northeast.  The main westerlies are
well to the north in the northern plains. At the surface a high
is centered in eastern Kansas with a weak low in the front
range near the Denver metro. The strongest pressure gradient is
mainly along and west of highway 83 leading to some wind gusts
around 20 mph but overall the surface winds are fairly light
(5-10 mph).

The short term looks pretty quiet as the surface and upper high
will keep the region mainly clear with skies and light on the
winds. Overnight lows will fall into the lower to mid 60s.
Friday looks to be another quiet day. Winds will become breezy
along the Colorado border but otherwise most of the region
should have light winds once again. Highs will reach into the
lower 90s.

Friday night into Saturday morning will be the start of an
impressive cool down for this time of year.  RAP/NAM show the
upper level high in the four corners retrograding to the west
and the stronger westerlies aloft in the northern plains will
start to shift to the south as a trough intensifies over the
Great Lakes. This will introduce a cold front into northern
Kansas late Friday night into Saturday morning with rain and
storms developing mainly along the I- 70 corridor where 15-20
POPs are in place during this time. Saturday should be
noticeably cooler with northerly winds and clouds with highs in
the 80s.

Long term trends continue a cool and rainy pattern for the start
of next week which is unusual for this time of year given we
are typically drier in late August. Ensembles have the upper air
pattern shifting to a deeper longwave trough in the eastern
CONUS and an amplified ridge in the west. This will keep the
stronger northwesterly winds aloft mainly in the central plains
and a slow moving to stationary frontal boundary along the
Kansas-Oklahoma border from Monday through Wednesday. With ample
upslope surface flow and shortwaves coming out of the northwest
we will have off and on rain and storms from Sunday night
through Thursday night with the highest POPs (60-70%) occurring
both Monday and Tuesday night. NBM QPF outlooks give widespread
1-3 inches of rain total during this stretch with probabilities
of > 1 inch from Monday to Tuesday night at 30-50%. EFI trends
in the QPF are at 0.7-0.8 and Shift of Tails are approaching 1
in southwest Kansas during this same time further increasing
confidence that we will see an anomolously wet weather pattern
being featured in the long term Euro ensembles. WPC also already
has a slight risk of excessive rainfall on Day 5. With the
clouds, rain, and east winds we will also have unusually cooler
temperatures with highs in the 60s-70s from Monday through
Wednesday which is a good 20 degrees cooler than climatological
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 500 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Satellite imagery depicts another cumulus field which will again
dissipate this evening. Excellent flying weather will continue
through this TAF period, with VFR/SKC and light winds.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Turner