332
FXUS63 KDDC 102114
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
414 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...Updated Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Two pockets of possible severe storm potential are present
  tonight across the far southwest and far eastern zones.
  Although, trends are decreasing and probabilities may
  decrease further.

- A strong upper level ridge will build over the weekend into
  next week, resulting in afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s
  and little to no precipitation chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 101 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

The synoptic pattern aloft remains primarily zonal flow.
The exception to this is a shortwave that is positioned over
western Nebraska. With the convective outflow from the overnight
storms, highs Friday are forecast a few degrees cooler than
Thursday residing in the upper 80s/90s. The focus will be on the
storm chances later this evening as the shortwave and weak
surface low pressure systems generate another risk of storms.
The SPC keeps the slight risk in far SW Kansas. Over the past
couple days, storms have trended downward in both intensity and
coverage via models and ensembles. Storms are progged to
initiate around 5 PM across eastern Colorado and northern
Oklahoma. The storms in Colorado will seemingly be triggered by
the shortwave while the storms in Oklahoma fire off of a
boundary that currently drapes from Oklahoma into Kansas. The
first chance for the CWA to see storms tonight appears to be out
of the Colorado pocket. By around 7 PM, models have storms
reaching into far SW Kansas. CAMs have some discrepancies in
exact coverage and strength, but recent runs have mostly
converged on this solution so confidence has increased. The
greatest threat is the potential for winds in excess of 60 mph
and 1 inch hail. The later and more volatile storms would be
nearer to the eastern counties. This convection would reach the
area, if at all, around 9-10 PM. This is expected to be
contained entirely east of highway 283 if it materializes.
Marginal wind and hail is possible with 60 mph gusts and 1 inch
stones. By the very early morning hours the storms are forecast
to dissipate and exit the area.

Into the weekend, incredible ridging is expected to build with
ensembles keeping the ridging in place for over a week. Mostly
light (<15 mph) winds will accompany the calm and dry weather.
The rest of the forecast period is expected to be without
notable weather headlines. The primary hazard in this stretch is
the heat with highs in the 90s, hot but not abnormally so for
SW Kansas in July. Regular precautions should be taken including
hydration and cooling breaks.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 414 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Excellent flying weather will prevail through this TAF period,
with VFR, scattered to broken cirrus, and light winds. Any
thunderstorms through tonight are expected to remain near or
west of EHA, as such this TAF update is dry. Did mention VCTS/CB
at LBL around 06z Sat, as some activity may approach this
airport overnight. VFR will continue through Saturday with light
easterly winds.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...Turner