249
FXUS63 KDDC 040601
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
101 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Friday evening will see a risk for thunderstorms mainly
  during the evening hours with highest chance (60%) near Hays

- Storms on Friday evening are expected to be mostly in the form
  of a line with damaging wind gusts (58+ mph) expected

- Weekend into next week will see near intermittent chance
  (>20%) for showers and thunderstorms with near seasonal
  temperatures (highs in the lower 90s and lows in the 60s)

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Latest water vapor imagery from this afternoon reveals a trough-
ridge-trough structure over CONUS with the ridge sitting over the
Great Plains.  A deep monsoonal plume of moisture is noted from the
Sierra Madre of western Mexico into the Great Plains with resultant
widespread MLCAPE over 1000 J/kg, high PW air, and little to no
inhibition seen over western Kansas. This moisture plume is along
and just ahead of a short wave cutting across the Central and
Southern Rockies with this wave helping trigger scattered convection
(<25% coverage) as far north as south-central Kansas. Although
exceedingly low shear values (0-6 km bulk shear < 10 kt) are
limiting the intensity of convection...some localized heavy rainfall
(>0.5 inch) is noted in Barber and Comanche Counties. However, this
convection will fade quickly by early evening with the remainder of
tonight being dry. Otherwise, the lee trough remains anchored across
eastern Colorado and New Mexico with resultant gusty south winds
(>25 mph) existing while a shallow CU field in place over most of
the region eroding by sunset.  The only slightly interesting item of
note for late tonight into early on Friday will be a narrow belt of
theta-e advection in the lower 2-kft that most NWP indicates will
trigger some lower stratus around sunrise but then fading by mid
morning.

Friday afternoon to evening will then turn slightly more active as
the aforementioned short wave slides east out of the Rockies and
across the Great Plains. This will help kick the lee trough eastward
into western Kansas by late afternoon. Initially during the morning
hours, the previously mentioned belt of theta-e advection may trigger
some showers or weak thunderstorms mainly east of highway 183.
However, as the area moves into the afternoon hours temps in the 80s
along with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s will bring MLCAPE
of 1000-2000 J/kg ahead of the surface trough with minimal
inhibition by 00 UTC. Although 0-6 km bulk shear will be stronger
(25-35 kt) over southwest Kansas...deeper convection is largely
expected to initiate over northwest KS and far eastern CO where
shear is substantially weaker. Combining this with high DCAPE values
(>2000 J/kg) will result in large cold pool development with
convection growing upscale into lines by the time it would move into
southwest and central Kansas with at least a modest risk of 58+ mph
wind gusts. Further, the highest probability (values at or
above 50%) for rainfall amounts of 0.5 inch or higher will exist
largely north of US Highway 50 and especially closer to the
I-70 corridor.

For the weekend into next week the upper ridge will rebuild over the
Rockies to adjacent High Plains. This will bring a weak west-
northwest flow regime across the Central Plains for days with
intermittent risk (>20%) for showers and thunderstorms as the
monsoonal moisture plume remains across the region. Further, temps
will be near seasonal normals in the low 90s for highs and mid 60s
for lows.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Diurnal cooling and moisture advection from the south will
result in low MVFR CIGS by 09-11z at KDDC/KGCK and KLBL.
The cloud deck will rise to VFR by 18z with daytime heating.
Thunderstorms may affect the TAF sites after 20z as a weak upper
level disturbance approaches. Winds will remain out of the south
and increase to 15-18 kts with afternoon heating.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJohnson
AVIATION...Finch