091
FXUS63 KDDC 082338
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
638 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hottest temperatures of the year are in the forecast for today
  with a Heat Advisory until 8 pm

- Small probability (~10-20%) of thunderstorms with downburst wind
  threat this evening along the Colorado border

- Cooler temperatures and increasing storm chances this weekend
  and early next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Current RAP mesoanalysis continues to hold a strong upper-level high
pressure system along the CONUS/Mexico border. To the north, there
is a deep closed low pressure system centered over Montana. Down
near the surface, two adjoined low pressure systems sit north of the
CWA. One stronger low in southern South Dakota, the other in far NW
Kansas. Descending from the southern low, a weak front/boundary
drapes across the western zones. Behind this, light showers have
already developed in far SE Colorado.

Friday is another hot day. Most of SW Kansas has already reached 100
degrees, and it is expected that virtually all of SW Kansas gets to
at least 100. Some areas, especially in the eastern zones, could
reach as high as 110 degrees. With this heat, a Heat Advisory is in
effect for the whole area until 8 pm. After today, significant heat
relief is forecast. Showers from SE Colorado have begun creeping
into Kansas. Eventually it is expected that this transitions into a
more significant convection with CAMs having thunderstorms in far SW
Kansas into the evening. There is some uncertainty in just how much
coverage these storms are able to obtain. NAMNST forecast soundings
confirm that the forecasted environment is unfavorable for strong
thunderstorms. Strong winds are possible with the potent lapse-
rates, but any storms that develop are expected to stay sub-severe.
Later into the night, a front from the deeper surface low is
expected to sweep through the area, shifting winds and bringing
much cooler air.

Saturday`s highs are expected to stay within the 90s expected the
farthest southeastern zones, especially Barber county. Otherwise the
only weather headlines are into the overnight, another chance for
storms is present. Ensembles have chances as high as 40% in the
northwestern zones. the NAMNST in particular as the convection
developing a more linear structure. Both hail and wind are credible
severe threats with the organized linear mode providing the most
potential to reach severe thresholds. There is some upper-level
dynamical support with a loose alignment with the right entrance of
the jet aloft. Although, there is not enough support aloft to
warrant a high-end event, plenty of ingredients are forecasted to be
present in order for strong storms to develop.

With a continued northerly wind providing some CAA to SW Kansas,
Sunday is forecast to be another few degrees cooler. Sunday night
has the best chances by ensembles for widespread precipitation
chances with up to 55% chances. Into next week, highs are forecast
in the 80/90s with another chance for precipitation on Monday night.
Although significant uncertainty remains in thunderstorm chances
beyond the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1141 AM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

An isolated, but determined supercell is being sustained across
the I-70 corridor region. No severe reports have been collected
from this storm however it is likely (60% chance) to impact the
HYS terminal directly around the time this TAF set becomes
valid. A few scattered storms might be found as well south of
LBL in the OK panhandle. Additional isolated convection through
the evening and overnight cannot be ruled out as a weak surface
cold front moves into the area.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...Russell