081
FXUS63 KDDC 032206
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
506 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The first round of precipitation is ongoing across southwest
  KS, but expected to diminish with time this afternoon and
  evening.

- Round two of precipitation will begin late tonight and
  continue through Friday morning, favoring roughly the
  southeastern half of our area.

- Round three of precipitation is expected on Saturday, with a
  potential switch to snow as this final event winds downs.

- Dry, warming trend is expected Sunday through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

KDDC radar observations at 19Z Thursday show scattered light to
moderate rain showers spread out over southwest KS amidst moist
upslope flow ahead of a large, upper level longwave trough over
the western CONUS. Short range guidance agrees this activity
will gradually diminish through the afternoon and evening as it
shifts northward while a few scattered sub-severe thunderstorms
develop near the KS/CO border closest to the mid-level cold
air. Given the expected downward trend in precipitation
intensity and roughly 0.1-0.15" of QPF having already fallen,
rain totals with this round will not be much higher, with only a
few additional hundredths. Otherwise, temperatures have
unsurprisingly struggled to increase early this afternoon under
the thick cloud canopy and precipitation, and most locations
have likely already reached or are close to their high today in
the 50s.

Tonight, the majority of precipitation should be clear of
southwest KS as per HREF members, leading to a brief lull in
activity across our area. However, a second round of
precipitation is progged to develop over the TX panhandle
around midnight, and advance northward into southwest and south-
central KS by early morning Friday. Latest HREF suggests the
bulk of the precipitation in this round will fall along and
south of a Liberal-Dodge City-Larned line as HREF probability
of QPF > 0.1" increases from 30-40% near the line to 80-90%
across Barber County. Similar to Thursday, this activity will
gradually weaken with time daytime Friday, with only isolated
showers by 20Z. Temperatures Friday afternoon will once again
stay below normal as thick cloud cover remains in place over the
central plains, with highs in the 50s.

The third and final round of precipitation is expected to
develop Friday night as the upper level longwave trough begins
to eject onto the High Plains. Medium range guidance currently
indicates light to moderate rain will overspread our
northwestern zones along the leading edge of a cold front
courtesy of an upper level shortwave trough traversing the far
northern plains/south-central Canada, and move southeast with
time. Sufficient cold air will spill equatorward in the wake of
this front, eventually converging on the precipitation
facilitating a switch to snow. Confidence in how much
precipitation remaining in southwest KS once this occurs is
low, and its entirely possible that this switch doesn`t happen
until all precipitation has left our area. As such, little to
no winter impacts are expected, although trends will be closely
monitored.

Once all is said and done, ECMWF EPS and GEFS ensemble means
show total precipitation will be in the 0.3-0.5" range, with
locally higher amounts wherever convective elements can develop.
Beyond Saturday, medium range ensembles are in agreement
suggesting synoptic-scale ridging will build over the western
CONUS through early next work-week. This pattern evolution
implies the central plains will see a dry, warming trend with no
notable weather impacts.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 500 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Pretty poor flight conditions through much of the TAF pd. MVFR cigs
and vis will likely lower to IFR or even LIFR as plenty of moisture
prevails across the terminals. This reduction in flight category
is expected through the overnight hours. Another wave of SHRA/VCSH
will spread across the terminals during the morning hours around
12Z. Was more aggressive in lower vis and cigs for the TAFs, since
there already is considerable moisture in the atmosphere. Flight
conditions may slowly improve to MVFR by Friday afternoon. Winds
will be SE 15-25 kt early tonight and then decrease SE 5-15 kt through
the morning. NE winds 5-15 kt are expected through the day tomorrow.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Springer
AVIATION...Sugden