431
FXUS63 KDDC 241011
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
511 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms late this
  afternoon and early tonight west of a Hays to Ulysses line.
  Main hazards will be wind gusts of 60 mph and isolated hail.

- Locally heavy rainfall can be expected from afternoon and
  evening thunderstorms Today and again on Wednesday. Isolated
  water issues may result from this heavy rainfall, especially
  in areas which received heavy rainfall from previous events.

- A warming trend returns to southwest Kansas over the weekend.
  this will result in afternoon highs climbing to near 100
  degrees for some locations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Weakening convection was occurring across western Kansas
earlier this Tuesday morning given the abundant moisture in
place and mid level instability that was present ahead of a
weak upper level wave. Given this rich moisture across southwest
Kansas along with ongoing 850-700mb moisture transport and
weak/NIL 850-700 CIN, scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to linger through the predawn hours.

Following the early morning convection, very isolated
thunderstorms may redevelop later this afternoon across portions
of southwest Kansas given the afternoon heating, and any weak
forcing that still may be present across the area. Not overly
excited about this occurring but there is a slight chance. The
chance for this afternoon convection in southwest Kansas is less
than 20%. The better chance for afternoon convection (30-40%)
exists near a surface boundary located near the Colorado border
and along a warm front lifting north across northern Kansas.
This is due to another upper level wave moving towards the
Central Rockies early Tuesday afternoon from the base of the
western United States trough. Steep low level lapse rates and
modest shear continues to support the potential for a few of the
stronger storms late today to produce wind gusts of 60 mph.
Isolated quarter sized hail also cannot be completely ruled out
near the Colorado border.

Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible from any storm
that does develop and cross southwest Kansas given that there is
no major air mass change and precipitable water (PWAT) values
are well above the 90th percentile for late June. Several areas
were saturated by heavy rainfall last night, including extreme
southwest Kansas (Morton, Stevens, Grant, and Stanton Counties),
as well as Pawnee and Hodgeman counties. These locations will
require special attention should any storms move into them.

On Wednesday, the western United States upper level trough will
begin to weaken as the main part of this upper trough lifts
northeast into the Plains by late day. As this more significant
system lifts northeast, the surface boundary over eastern
Colorado will move into western Kansas by late day, resulting in
a better opportunity for scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall will be the main hazard on
Wednesday due to persistent high PWAT values across western
Kansas. However, the severe risk appears minimal, as the better
shear and instability will be located ahead of the upper trough,
which will be moving across the northern Plains.

Late in the week and into the weekend, the upper level trough
over the western United States will continue to weaken and a
flattening upper level high over the southeastern United States
appears to expand westward towards the southern Plains. By 12z
Friday the upper high axis will extend from East Texas into the
Tennessee Valley as a westerly flow develops across the central
and northern Rockies. Across southwest Kansas improving
westerly downslope flow will support the warming trend already
indicated by NBM guidance. We will need to monitor the magnitude
of this warmup this weekend. However, given recent rains, it
may not be as significant as the 90th percentile of the NBM
guidance suggests. Still, even if temperatures do not reach
around 100 degrees Fahrenheit in some locations, the humidity
should easily support high heat index values.

Currently, precipitation chances for Friday and Saturday do not
look very favorable but it cannot be completely ruled out. If a
few storms might develop near a surface lee trough over eastern
Colorado which could move into western Kansas given the
improving westerly flow. This will be monitored over the next
few days but for now it looks warm and dry Friday and Saturday.
The better opportunity for thunderstorms this weekend will
accompany a cold front that will cross the central Plains late
this weekend or early next week as a progressive northern branch
upper trough crosses the Northern Plains. This cold front will
bring an end to the weekend warmup.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 501 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

At 10z this morning the short term models remain in agreement
with the area of ongoing rain showers and thunderstorms over
southwest Kansas gradually tapering off by 15z today. The best
chance for morning convection will be in Liberal and Dodge City.
After the chance for thunderstorms will return to portions of
southwest Kansas during the early afternoon, with the best
location for these thunderstorms to occur being around Garden
City and Hays area from 22z today through 03z Wednesday. Chance
for this in 30% or less.  BUFR soundings and guidance today
indicate VFR conditions with ceilings as low as 3000 to 5000
feet AGL in or near the thunderstorms. Ceilings above 12000 feet
AGL likely outside these storms. Winds will be from the south
at 10 to 15 knots.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert