969
FXUS63 KDDC 221710
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1110 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer temperatures are predicted through Sunday with highs
  reaching the 60s.

- Dry weather is forecast through Tuesday.

- There are small to moderate chances for light snow (or light
  rain changing to light snow) from midday Wednesday into
  Wednesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

The mid level flow will become more zonal over the next few
days, resulting in surface troughing in the lee of the Rockies
and milder weather. Southerly winds each day and plenty of sun
will allow highs to warm to the upper 50s to near 60 today and
lower 60s Saturday. South winds Saturday will be a little
breezier than Friday (10-15 mph sustained as opposed to 10
mph). A cold front will pass Sunday afternoon, but not fast
enough to reduce daytime temperatures. With downslope flow ahead
of the front, expect temperatures to reach into the mid to
upper 60s along the Oklahoma state line, with slightly cooler
readings in the lower 60s along I-70.

In the wake of a cold front, expect cooler highs in the 40s
Monday before rebounding into the upper 40s to lower 50s for
Tuesday. A progressive upper level trough will approach the high
plains by Wednesday along with a surge of cool air. Mid level
frontogenesis will develop across western Kansas, with light
rain changing to light snow, or perhaps precipitation could
begin as all snow. The ensemble means are in reasonable
agreement that this will be a light precipitation event; but the
location of any snow is still uncertain. The GEFS ensemble mean
is still a little farther south than the ECMWF ensemble mean
with the band of snow, with the ECMWF depicting more of an I-70
event. However, both of these only indicate 30-50% chances for >
.1" of precipitation and the GEPS ensemble mean is even drier.
Bottom line is that the first flakes of snow are possible and
there could even be some accumulation. But amounts will likely
be light given the fast moving nature of the system and low
precipitation rates. Highs should only be in the lower 40s for
Wednesday and Thursday, with lows in the 20s for Thursday and
Friday mornings. Milder weather will return by next Friday
afternoon as downslope flow develops in the wake of the upper
level trough, with highs back into the upper 40s or 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1106 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Quiet aviation weather will continue through Saturday morning.
High pressure will continue to pull away from western Kansas,
resulting in a fairly prolonged period of winds generally out of
the south. Winds will not be that strong, however, with a low
probability (20% or less) of winds greater than 12 knots
sustained for more than a few hours through 18Z Saturday. The
dry air mass will also keep flight category VFR through this TAF
period.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...Umscheid