484
FXUS63 KDDC 060917
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
417 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably hot afternoons will continue Sunday through
  Tuesday, with near record highs expected.

- A weak cold front will offer minor cooling, and improved
  chances for showers and thunderstorms around midweek.

- A stronger cold front is expected to finally provide more
  significant heat relief next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

The synoptic pattern aloft continues to be dominated by a very
large high pressure complex over the southern CONUS and
residing overhead of the forecast area. The only other aspect of
the patttern currently is a very strong low pressure system
that continues to deepen over the Pacific Northwest. Today`s
convection greatly over preformed and has dropped temperatures
down into the 70/80s. Some weak convection continues in very far
SW Kansas, but CAMs have these storms slowly dying off.
Additionally, some CAM`s have scattered overnight convection
across the CWA that will all remain sub-severe. The best chances
appear to be up near Hays in the northern counties at around 8
AM to noon.

A  heat advisory remains in effect east of US 283 until Sunday
at 8 PM. Highs Sunday are forecast in the mid-to-upper 90s and
even exceeding triple digits in the far southeastern portion of
the CWA. Other than the heat that continues to blanket the area,
the forecast focus is on more storm chances in the evening.
CAMs have weak storms developing in eastern Colorado around 7 PM
and moving into Kansas. Progged CAPE and shear are very minimal
and storms are expected to remain well below severe thresholds
if the storms even materialize.

Monday and Tuesday are forecast to continue the heat with highs
in the upper 90s. The next best chance for precipitation comes
Tuesday night with 30-40% storm chances via ensembles in the
northwestern counties. Although it is still early, it is
expected that these storms continue to be sub-severe with strong
winds up to 50 mph being possible. Wednesday, ensembles have
another wave of precipitation, this time more widespread. More
time will be needed before making declarative statements on the
convection. The rest of the forecast period will remain hot,
with sunday even cooling down enough for highs be around 90
degrees. This would easily be the coolest day of the forecast
period. Through this stretch, modest relative humidity minimums
remain above 25% quelling most of the fire weather risk. This is
forecast to accompany a continuing south wind at 10-15 mph.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 417 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Good flying weather will continue through this TAF period, with
VFR persisting, variable amounts of mid/high clouds, and light
winds. Radar imagery at 0915z Sun depicted scattered showers
near HYS, GCK and LBL, but remaining activity is expected to
dissipate over the next few hours through sunrise. No
thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon/evening, and the
upcoming set of TAFs will be dry.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ031-046-065-
066-079>081-089-090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...Turner
KEY MESSAGES...Turner