689
FXUS63 KDDC 192200
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- One more unseasonably hot day Friday.

- Widespread rain and thunderstorms expected Saturday night,
  with locally heavy rainfall expected.

- Dramatically cooler behind a strong cold front Sunday and
  Monday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

A weak front is moving across the FA this early afternoon.
The mainimpact from this will be a wind shift as it moves
through. Any storms are expected to be well east and southeast
of the FA tonight, so a quiet weather night is expected across
southwest Kansas. Winds will eventually become light and
variable tonight as high pressure moves over the area this
evening. Relatively mild lows are expected tonight with 50s NW
to 60s SE.

The mentioned front will return northward Friday and should
bisect the FA during the afternoon. A minor/weak UL wave moving
through should interact with the boundary and spark off some
showers and storms by afternoon and evening. Forecast PWATs are
to be high and above climo (90th percentile), so heavy rainfall
and lightning are the main threats with this activity. Have the
highest confidence of storms along and south of Highway 50. This
seems to be the general consensus amongst all the CAM
solutions. Highs south of the front will be hot with values in
the mid to upper 90s. Farther north, it will still be hot with
values in the lower 90s. There might be a moderate wind gust of
40 to 50 mph with the storms as well. Overall, severe
thunderstorm threat looks limited.

Attention then turns to over the weekend. A large UL low continue
to move east over the weekend and approach the state Saturday
evening into Sunday morning. Forecast PWATs during this time
are modeled to be around the 90th percentile. The UL low and low
level moisture will set the stage for heavy rainfall somewhere
across the plains. I say somewhere because there is incredibly
large uncertainty in both deterministic model solutions as well
as ensemble models. Ensemble QPF amounts from both the GEFS and
EPS are all over the map in terms of where the heavier rainfall
axis will fall. Some of the ensemble members look like they want
to trend to keep the heavier rainfall axis north of the FA. Do
not have high confidence in the trend, is this trend did not
exist in yesterdays ensembles. Bottom line, someone will see
some very good rains, but the location is unclear at this time.
WPC does have an excessive rainfall outlook at marginal levels,
so the threat is there. AI models like the ECMWF-AIFS has the
heavier rainfall axis right through Dodge City. GraphCast GFS as
well, with a slight displacement to the north. Please stay
tuned to the forecast as hopefully uncertainty decreases and the
models (both deterministic and ensemble) hopefully come into
better agreement. Regardless of the moisture, it does look like
we will get a welcomed break from the heat Sunday onward... so
there is that.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 500 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Excellent flying weather will continue through this TAF period,
with more VFR/SKC at all airports, followed by increasing mid
level clouds after 18z Fri. Light north winds currently will
trend light easterly overnight then southeast by 12z Fri.
A sharp increase in SW winds is expected after 18z Fri, with
gusts near 30 kts.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sugden
AVIATION...Turner