146
FXUS63 KDDC 041047
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
547 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue
  tonight through Thursday morning, with a clearing sky
  anticipated Thursday afternoon.

- Any scattered strong thunderstorm redevelopment Thursday
  afternoon would strongly favor the eastern counties (central
  Kansas).

- Hotter afternoon temperatures in the lower 90s Friday, with
  breezy south winds.

- Another opportunity for showers and thunderstorms Saturday
  afternoon and night, favoring southeast zones (south central
  Kansas).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Satellite and radar imagery depicted a shortwave with an
embedded mesoscale convective vorticity max (MCV) centered near
far SW KS. Showers and thunderstorms have been increasing in the
strong ascent ahead of this shortwave over the past several
hours, providing more beneficial rainfall for areas west of
US 83. Model guidance shows the shortwave/vorticity max only
very slowly pivoting into SW KS through sunrise, spreading
showers and thunderstorms eastward overnight. Pops remain in the
definite category (> 80%) for the next several hours. Satellite
and radar trends support a heavy rainfall trend through
tonight, but even marginally severe hail/wind is not expected
given moist profiles and poor wind shear.

Shortwave trough axis will move eastward across SW KS Thursday
morning, with subsidence behind the shortwave gradually clearing
the sky from west to east during the day. Most locations will be
dry Thursday afternoon, with NBM pops very limited and
restricted to the far eastern zones at peak heating. This lines
up with the overwhelming CAM consensus, that any thunderstorm
redevelopment after 4 pm will either be east of the DDC CWA, or
be in Stafford to Barber counties very briefly, before moving
east. Marginal 5% wind/hail probability from SPC is valid, but
it is expected that any organized severe weather will focus on
central/northeast Kansas Thursday afternoon and evening. With
afternoon sunshine and breezy south winds, afternoon
temperatures will warm easily into the upper 80s.

All locations are expected to remain dry Friday, with noticeably
hotter afternoon temperatures in the lower to mid 90s. Wet
topsoils and standing water from recent rainfall will likely
keep temperatures below the hottest guidance.

A weak synoptic pattern is expected into the weekend. Global
models place a weak 580 dm southern stream closed low near Far
West Texas 7 pm Friday, with general agreement this system will
eject northeast toward the central plains by 7 pm Saturday. Weak
steering flow keeps predictability somewhat limited, but
ensembles suggest the next opportunity for rain will come from
this system Saturday afternoon/night. NBM probability of
measurable QPF (> 0.01 inch) strongly favors the southeast
zones, ranging from 90% at Medicine Lodge, to 5% at Syracuse.
NBM pops follow this gradient and were accepted.

After the Saturday shortwave passes, a warming trend is evident,
with NBM max temperatures continually climbing each day Sunday
through Wednesday. 00z GFS shows progressively climbing 500 mb
heights early next week, with a 592 dm upper high near NW OK by
Wednesday. In response, NBM forecasts high temperatures near 100
Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 544 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

A departing MCV in southwest Kansas will bring an end to the
rain and cloud cover during the mid morning hours. Expect flight
categories to transition from IFR/MVFR to VFR flight category
or GCK, DDC, and HYS between 12-15Z. A redeveloping isolated
storm between 18-21Z could lead to VCTS at HYS however the
probabilities should be under 30s.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Tatro